ATL: HERMINE - Models

[gatorcane]

12z UKMET is bullish at mid range.

http://oi65.tinypic.com/21qts0.jpg

Wow that is interesting. Luis, definitely need to keep a close watch on this one with the UKMET on board.

Also it appears there is actually a ridge over the Eastern Seaboard of the U.S. in a week's time too according to the UKMET.

[BobHarlem]

Hmm a classic "model war" setup for a long track cape verde system that we haven't seen in a while. Euro being the weak one w/ west Carib, and GFS heading into the Bahamas. Either way not good for the E. Caribbean, and ripe for intense wobble watching and model trend watching. It'll be interesting to see if the climatological "stronger storm likely to head north/weaker west" holds here. (And I know that's an oversimplification)
Splitting the difference puts it into Florida/Gulf the last few days of August.

[TheStormExpert]

18z GFS looks to initialize this too far east.

[p1nheadlarry]

12z UKMET is bullish at mid range.

http://oi65.tinypic.com/21qts0.jpg

Wow that is interesting. Luis, definitely need to keep a close watch on this one with the UKMET on board.

Also it appears there is actually a ridge over the Eastern Seaboard of the U.S. in a week's time too according to the UKMET.

That would be bad for the gulf, right? Unless there's a weakness that could allow it to pass between Bermuda and the OBX/CapeCod, obviously lots of time to find out..

[Alyono]

18z mu stronger

[Hurricaneman]

18z mu stronger

and looks like through the lesser Antilles and out looking at that weakness

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

[tarheelprogrammer]

OTS this run probably.

[Blown Away]

Seems a developing system would move poleward through the NE Caribbean and weaker TW moves westward...

[Hurricaneman]

OTS this run probably.

maybe but at 186hrs the ridge is trying to build in which would cause some worry especially in the Bahamas

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

[tolakram]

OTS this run probably.

Why do you say that?

Last frame so far.

[tarheelprogrammer]

OTS this run probably.

Why do you say that?

Last frame so far.

Moving north at frame 198. Should say hour. Barely any movement west. I could be wrong it just looks that way to me.

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

Caveat here is 1. This is the GFS and 2. This is now the GFS past 192 and the upper air skill has been pretty bad this year.

[Hurricaneman]

Looks like according to the GFS might turn back west or WNW with that ridge to its north

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

[tolakram]

[tarheelprogrammer]

Caveat here is 1. This is the GFS and 2. This is now the GFS past 192 and the upper air skill has been pretty bad this year.

No argument here just pointing out what it did this run.

[p1nheadlarry]

OTS this run probably.

Why do you say that?

Last frame so far.

Moving north at frame 198. Should say hour. Barely any movement west. I could be wrong it just looks that way to me.

I'll have to look at the whole 384 but that blocking high over the US is concerning for the gulf/FL, obviously the islands. Still looking for a possible solution where it finds a weakness and curves off the coast of NA. A couple ensemble members have that.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Looks like according to the GFS might turn back west or WNW with that ridge to its north

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

Yeah we do not need that. Hope not.

[Blinhart]

We don't need this one or the next one or the next one to come into the Gulf, we need the land to dry out some, but here in South Louisiana is still getting rain.

[p1nheadlarry]

Pushing major status that run, off to watch the loop in full

edit: silly me, the run is ongoing. I knew that..