ATL: COLIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

A reminder if anyone wants to post a forecast don't forget to add our Storm2k disclaimer.

This post is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[NDG]

Feels weird to get model runs like this in June... Looks like something we would see in September or October. Looking at that spaghetti plot, my first thought was "Wilma".

The no-show persistent -NAO has finally become negative a is causing a deep trough to carve out over the Eastern U.S.

This is a fairly normal track for early June, lets not forget about 2004, Charlie's track in early August that was very "weird" as you said it and then the pattern changed with the blink of an eye.

[Hurricane Alexis]

Interesting bit from the Miami nws discussion

However, the GFS is showing
a trough dropping down into North Florida, which will draw the low
slight north, as well as most of the heavy rain. It also shows an
area of isentropic lift over South Florida for Monday afternoon
and evening. This may indicate more of a hybrid type system by
this point, which could have additional impacts of its own. It is
too early too tell however, as the ECMWF does not show this to be
the case.

[AdamFirst]

18z GFS getting ready to roll.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Some nice spin going on in the last few frames. Center looks to be 85W and 17.5N.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[robbielyn]

Since there isn't many posting on this forum at this time, I'll post the current thinking of Tampa NWS. They are expecting 3-6" of rain with locally higher amounts likely. Also isolated tornadoes monday into tuesday depending how system develops. This will be a widespread rain event fot west central and sw florida. It will be out of here by wednesday with drier air d/t high pressure building into the southeast for the northern half of fl, but will leave pops up d/t abundant moisture for southern half of state for weds and thursday. The biggest threat for our area is heavy rainfall.

In the middle of the night about two or three weeks ago it sounded like a tropical storm except it had lightening and thunder but the winds were real strong and gusty and the downpour was unreal. I live in brooksville in hernando county 40 miles north of tampa about 9 miles from the gulf.

This post is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[MetroMike]

Graphics are still not working on top map. Will this be the norm from now on?

[AdamFirst]

18z GFS has the low center landfall north of Tampa before it gets sheared to death over and beyond Florida.

[AdamFirst]

NWS Miami disco

The forecast begins to become somewhat uncertain for Monday.
Currently, the NHC has the low at a 60 percent chance to develop
into a tropical system in the next 5 days, somewhere over the
Gulf. Models are in pretty good agreement with this low deepening
some, but have slightly backed off from yesterday, but still have
a vigorous system approaching the Florida Gulf coast Monday night.
It really does not look like it will make much of a difference if
it becomes tropical or not. The main concerns either way will be
how much rain and how strong will the storms be. It is still
fairly early to become definitive yet. However, the GFS is showing
a trough dropping down into North Florida, which will draw the low
slight north, as well as most of the heavy rain. It also shows an
area of isentropic lift over South Florida for Monday afternoon
and evening. This may indicate more of a hybrid type system by
this point, which could have additional impacts of its own. It is
too early too tell however, as the ECMWF does not show this to be
the case.

But, while Central and portions of North Florida should have the
heaviest rain, there will still be some flooding concerns across
South Florida. Predictions are for several inches of rain over the
next 7 days for South Florida. The rain that has been falling for
the last few days will also play a factor as the soil has become
closer to saturation in many areas. Again, this will all depend on
the exact track and where any rain bands set up. Also, the wind is
currently forecast to increase out of the south to around 20 to 25
kts over the coastal areas.

Another concern, will be the development of strong thunderstorms.
Models are showing quite a bit of shear across the area for much
of the time from Monday through Tuesday. There will be the
potential for strong gusty wind, as well as some isolated
tornadoes. This activity will be possible through Tuesday.

[cycloneye]

Graphics are still not working on top map. Will this be the norm from now on?

The administrators are working to fix it as soon as possible so I can tell you it will be up soon and not be the norm not working.

[Dean4Storms]

Noted a further north landfall with both the 12z ECM Mean and Control runs of the Ensembles. Most have the Low headed into Appalachicola Bay area!

[SFLcane]

Noted a further north landfall with both the 12z ECM Mean and Control runs of the Ensembles. Most have the Low headed into Appalachicola Bay area!

Might miss Florida all together lol.. either was never real threat other then rainfall. It's June folks

[AdamFirst]

Noted a further north landfall with both the 12z ECM Mean and Control runs of the Ensembles. Most have the Low headed into Appalachicola Bay area!

Might miss Florida all together lol.. either was never real threat other then rainfall. It's June folks

This will be a Florida impact, regardless of its form. It's got nowhere else to go.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

First run of the HWRF on this system puts a 45kt tropical storm close to Cedar Key

[TheStormExpert]

18z HWRF strengthens 93L very little through 72hrs.

[TheStormExpert]

Just as I posted the rest of the 18z HWRF run came in. Has it peak at 999mb at 75hrs. just before landfall in the Florida Big Bend region.

[cycloneye]

Up to 30%-70%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI JUN 3 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Bonnie, located about 300 miles east of Cape Hatteras, North
Carolina.

A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms continues
over the western Caribbean Sea. This system is moving
west-northwestward toward the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, and a low
pressure area is expected to form over the Yucatan or the adjacent
waters over the weekend. This low is likely to develop into a
tropical cyclone as it subsequently moves across the eastern Gulf of
Mexico and the Florida Peninsula early next week. Regardless of
development, locally heavy rains and flooding are possible over
portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, western Cuba and the Florida
Peninsula during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[tarheelprogrammer]

Seems to want to strengthen it before landfall

[gatorcane]

[gatorcane]

Convection seems to be falling apart the last several hours but we should expect pulsing of convection as it gradually tries to organize.

[psyclone]

well we've gotten our invest designation, our high development likelihood and the NHC has continued to step up development probs in 10% increments...so things are progressing exactly as I envisioned. I still expect the main issue for land dwellers to be svr wx and heavy rain...but no meaningful gradient wind...probably just a breezy day. some above normal tides and beach erosion...but zip for folks west of the center...in fact the best weather action may wind up a good bit east of the center. this will likely be one of those systems where blob following pays better than center following as far as sensible wx goes. as always I enjoy watching for any surprises.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.