EPAC: NORA - Remnants
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- cycloneye
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EPAC: NORA - Remnants
95E INVEST 151006 1800 7.9N 113.2W EPAC 15 1008
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT TUE OCT 6 2015
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms are associated with a
tropical wave located about 1000 miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of
this system later this week while the low moves west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent
Forecaster Kimberlain
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT TUE OCT 6 2015
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms are associated with a
tropical wave located about 1000 miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of
this system later this week while the low moves west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent
Forecaster Kimberlain
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- cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT TUE OCT 6 2015
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
about 1000 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula have become slightly better organized since
yesterday. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive
for gradual development of this system later this week while the low
moves west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent
Forecaster Pasch
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT TUE OCT 6 2015
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
about 1000 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula have become slightly better organized since
yesterday. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive
for gradual development of this system later this week while the low
moves west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent
Forecaster Pasch
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- Extratropical94
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- Extratropical94
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT TUE OCT 6 2015
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
about 1000 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula have become slightly better organized since
yesterday. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive
for gradual development of this system later this week while the low
moves west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT TUE OCT 6 2015
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
about 1000 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula have become slightly better organized since
yesterday. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive
for gradual development of this system later this week while the low
moves west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent
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Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
about 1200 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula have become better organized since yesterday.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the
weekend while the system moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent
about 1200 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula have become better organized since yesterday.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the
weekend while the system moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent
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- Yellow Evan
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Code: Select all
* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP952015 10/07/15 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 35 43 49 59 67 76 80 81 84
V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 35 43 49 59 67 76 80 81 84
V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 31 34 39 43 48 56 70 85 95 100
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 5 6 4 0 3 5 3 3 4 3 2 1 8
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -3 -1 -2 -6 -3 0 -5 5 6 4 -1
SHEAR DIR 30 31 33 174 228 225 300 77 140 68 36 187 203
SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.4 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.3 28.9
POT. INT. (KT) 156 155 155 156 158 160 162 162 162 161 160 157 153
200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.2 -51.9 -52.1 -52.4 -52.3 -52.9 -52.4 -52.7 -51.9 -52.1 -51.8 -51.8
TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 7 7 7
700-500 MB RH 78 74 75 75 75 73 71 68 59 54 52 48 44
MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 5 6 6 9 10 13 14 18 19 19 22
850 MB ENV VOR -18 -26 -30 -33 -45 -41 -28 -17 9 44 68 71 79
200 MB DIV 38 29 12 29 36 63 51 43 56 45 36 31 28
700-850 TADV 0 0 1 4 4 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0
LAND (KM) 1770 1818 1880 1943 2010 2141 2291 2426 2510 2365 2212 2036 1845
LAT (DEG N) 8.9 9.3 9.6 9.9 10.2 10.7 11.2 11.8 12.3 12.7 13.5 14.4 15.5
LONG(DEG W) 117.9 119.4 120.9 122.2 123.5 126.1 128.6 130.8 132.5 133.8 135.0 136.4 137.9
STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 14 13 13 13 12 10 8 7 8 9 8
HEAT CONTENT 21 22 25 26 22 15 16 26 29 26 22 26 24
FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 528 (MEAN=581)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.4 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 23. 29. 33. 36. 38. 40.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 13. 13. 14. 14.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -3. -2. 0. 1. 1. 0.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2.
700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 8. 12. 14. 19. 22. 21. 25.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. -9.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 18. 24. 34. 42. 51. 56. 56. 59.
** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952015 INVEST 10/07/15 12 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2
D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 26.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1
Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.4 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952015 INVEST 10/07/15 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
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- Kingarabian
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1. An area of disturbed weather centered about 1850 miles east- southeast of Hilo, Hawaii is moving west at 15 to 20 miles per hour. Scattered thunderstorms continue around this low pressure area with environmental conditions conducive for further development. The disturbance may develop into a tropical depression before crossing 140°W, which may occur as early as Saturday. Since the area of interest is east of 140°W refer to the national hurricane center's tropical weather outlook, under AWIPS header MIATWOEP and WMO header abpz20 KNHC, for additional details.
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- Yellow Evan
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- Yellow Evan
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E
Code: Select all
* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP952015 10/09/15 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 38 44 55 70 83 88 95 97 101 104
V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 38 44 55 70 83 88 95 97 101 104
V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 31 34 38 47 63 84 102 114 118 117 116
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 1 2 1 4 6 4 6 4 6 3 9 4 7
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -1 -2 -4 -4 -6 -2 -6 -4 -1 -3 0
SHEAR DIR 245 218 324 40 82 132 83 95 88 107 334 343 49
SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.6 29.3 29.1 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.6
POT. INT. (KT) 164 164 166 166 164 162 159 156 154 152 151 150 149
200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.6 -52.9 -52.8 -52.1 -52.3 -51.5 -52.0 -51.4 -51.7 -51.0 -51.4 -50.9
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 9 10 10 9 8 9 9 9 8
700-500 MB RH 77 77 77 73 72 66 61 64 62 62 56 57 58
MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 11 13 13 13 16 20 19 23 24 27 28
850 MB ENV VOR -25 -13 -8 -8 -10 -15 15 34 48 53 51 50 61
200 MB DIV 92 93 71 39 38 43 54 58 62 48 75 42 72
700-850 TADV 0 1 2 4 3 3 2 0 0 0 -1 0 3
LAND (KM) 2408 2517 2619 2463 2308 2046 1813 1604 1426 1311 1241 1173 1078
LAT (DEG N) 10.1 10.4 10.6 10.9 11.1 11.3 11.4 11.4 11.6 11.7 12.1 12.8 14.2
LONG(DEG W) 129.0 130.6 132.2 133.7 135.1 137.7 140.1 142.4 144.3 145.6 146.1 146.3 146.3
STM SPEED (KT) 17 16 15 14 13 12 12 10 8 4 4 5 7
HEAT CONTENT 26 25 29 39 44 19 20 20 27 27 30 34 22
FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 493 (MEAN=581)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.3 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 23. 30. 33. 35. 37. 39.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 1. 4. 6. 7. 7. 5. 6.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -12. -12. -12.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 4. 5. 6. 11. 16. 16. 21. 23. 27. 28.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 13. 19. 30. 45. 58. 63. 70. 72. 76. 79.
** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952015 INVEST 10/09/15 00 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 140.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 32.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4
D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 59.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1
Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 71% is 5.4 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 48% is 5.5 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 29% is 4.6 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 29% is 7.9 times the sample mean( 4.3%)
HWRF and GFDL each forecast a sub-965 mbar, along with the GFS. ECMWF is much less aggressive, so there is some uncertainty.
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- jaguarjace
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
147 PM HST THU OCT 8 2015
For the central north Pacific, between 140°W and 180.
1. An area of disturbed weather centered about 1850 miles east- southeast of Hilo, Hawaii is moving west at 15 to 20 miles per hour.
Scattered thunderstorms continue around this low pressure area with environmental conditions conducive for further development.
The disturbance may develop into a tropical depression before crossing 140°W, which may occur as early as Saturday.
Since the area of interest is east of 140°W refer to the national hurricane center's tropical weather outlook, under AWIPS header MIATWOEP and WMO header abpz20 KNHC, for additional details.
* Formation chance through 48 hours, medium, 60 percent elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected through Saturday afternoon.
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
147 PM HST THU OCT 8 2015
For the central north Pacific, between 140°W and 180.
1. An area of disturbed weather centered about 1850 miles east- southeast of Hilo, Hawaii is moving west at 15 to 20 miles per hour.
Scattered thunderstorms continue around this low pressure area with environmental conditions conducive for further development.
The disturbance may develop into a tropical depression before crossing 140°W, which may occur as early as Saturday.
Since the area of interest is east of 140°W refer to the national hurricane center's tropical weather outlook, under AWIPS header MIATWOEP and WMO header abpz20 KNHC, for additional details.
* Formation chance through 48 hours, medium, 60 percent elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected through Saturday afternoon.
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- Kingarabian
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- Yellow Evan
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Shower and thunderstorm activity has become a little better
organized in association with a tropical wave located about 1500
miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive
for further development, and a tropical depression is likely to form
by the weekend or early next week while the system moves
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent
organized in association with a tropical wave located about 1500
miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive
for further development, and a tropical depression is likely to form
by the weekend or early next week while the system moves
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent
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- Yellow Evan
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Re:
Kingarabian wrote:Lots of uncertainty as the models continue to have different opinions on whether that high builds back.
Only model that does that is the CMC. The rest are in excellent agreement in the short-medium range, with some uncertainty on the forward speed and angle of re-curve.
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- Yellow Evan
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E
The GFS continues to forecast a powerful hurricane near 145W in the upcoming days. The GFS run shows virtually no shear, and an excellent outflow channel from the north and the south-southwest, typical of extremely intense Pacific hurricanes. However, the 12z ECMWF shows only a minimal hurricane, with even that appears to be an outlier based on the ensemble probabilities, mean, and control. Main reason for the difference is that the ECMWF does not show much of a SSW outflow channel developing, perhaps due to a weaker CCKW.
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- Extratropical94
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Up to 70/90
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave
located about 1550 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula continues to show signs of organization.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for further
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the
weekend or early next week while the system moves west-northwestward
at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave
located about 1550 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula continues to show signs of organization.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for further
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the
weekend or early next week while the system moves west-northwestward
at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E
Yellow Evan wrote:The GFS continues to forecast a powerful hurricane near 145W in the upcoming days. The GFS run shows virtually no shear, and an excellent outflow channel from the north and the south-southwest, typical of extremely intense Pacific hurricanes. However, the 12z ECMWF shows only a minimal hurricane, with even that appears to be an outlier based on the ensemble probabilities, mean, and control. Main reason for the difference is that the ECMWF does not show much of a SSW outflow channel developing, perhaps due to a weaker CCKW.
Euro now even further west and weaker. I'm agreeing that it's likely to be the outlier and it may be windshield wiping considering it was in line with other models yesterday.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E
Kingarabian wrote:Yellow Evan wrote:The GFS continues to forecast a powerful hurricane near 145W in the upcoming days. The GFS run shows virtually no shear, and an excellent outflow channel from the north and the south-southwest, typical of extremely intense Pacific hurricanes. However, the 12z ECMWF shows only a minimal hurricane, with even that appears to be an outlier based on the ensemble probabilities, mean, and control. Main reason for the difference is that the ECMWF does not show much of a SSW outflow channel developing, perhaps due to a weaker CCKW.
Euro now even further west and weaker. I'm agreeing that it's likely to be the outlier and it may be windshield wiping considering it was in line with other models yesterday.
I find it hard to dimiss the best model we have. ECMWF doesn't do much with it through 48 hours. Right now, this is almost a TD. If we see little development within 24-36 hours, then, I'd largely agree with it.
HWRF has backed off quite a bit and is now in line with the ECMWF.
Last edited by Yellow Evan on Fri Oct 09, 2015 8:03 am, edited 1 time in total.
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- Yellow Evan
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 95E
Code: Select all
* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP952015 10/09/15 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 39 44 48 59 69 76 83 83 81 80 80
V (KT) LAND 30 34 39 44 48 59 69 76 83 83 81 80 80
V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 38 42 48 60 71 82 91 94 92 87 81
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 2 6 7 8 8 3 8 3 5 8 8 5 9
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -3 -5 -5 -1 0 -2 0 2 3 6
SHEAR DIR 58 56 98 138 151 171 187 131 190 239 260 254 229
SST (C) 29.7 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.4 27.6
POT. INT. (KT) 163 166 164 163 162 159 155 154 151 150 149 147 139
200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.8 -52.2 -52.3 -52.6 -51.8 -51.8 -51.4 -51.6 -51.2 -51.7 -51.4 -51.8
TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 10 10 10 8 8 8 9 9 9 8
700-500 MB RH 72 69 70 65 62 57 58 56 52 50 51 53 53
MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 11 12 12 14 16 18 21 24 24 24 25
850 MB ENV VOR -14 -15 -16 -17 -19 16 41 57 60 58 55 50 46
200 MB DIV 63 21 14 11 29 31 57 49 48 52 47 48 54
700-850 TADV 3 6 7 6 5 4 1 0 0 0 1 4 9
LAND (KM) 2544 2523 2377 2232 2088 1852 1645 1484 1348 1247 1175 1105 1067
LAT (DEG N) 11.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 131.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 14 13 11 9 7 5 4 5 8 8
HEAT CONTENT 28 35 46 33 20 19 20 26 31 23 17 16 12
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 502 (MEAN=581)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 22. 27. 30. 31. 33. 34.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 10. 10. 10. 11. 11.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -2. -5. -7. -8.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 2. 5. 9. 12. 16. 19. 21. 20. 22.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 18. 29. 39. 46. 53. 53. 51. 50. 50.
** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952015 INVEST 10/09/15 12 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 32.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3
D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 84.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0
Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 49% is 3.8 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 31% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 23% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 17% is 4.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%)
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- Yellow Evan
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Shower and thunderstorm activity have become better organized in
association with a low pressure area located about 1650 miles
east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. Environmental conditions
are conducive, and a tropical depression is expected to form later
today or tonight while the system moves west-northwestward at about
15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
association with a low pressure area located about 1650 miles
east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. Environmental conditions
are conducive, and a tropical depression is expected to form later
today or tonight while the system moves west-northwestward at about
15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
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