WPAC: DOLPHIN - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

It climbed .2 degrees latitude

[xtyphooncyclonex]

IMO the eye (or center) would track over the northern part of Guam or the Rota Channel. GFS tends to overdo the weakness of the ridge, and the initialization of the storm's current movement. Most of the other models agree on the island of Rota/Guam, and GFS is far off with Tinian. Whichever would come to pass, Guam may still experience at least near-typhoon force winds (55-70 kts) and gusts greater than that. Knowing that the storm has a big (above-average) wind field, then Guam may still get battered by torrential rains and strong winds. So, be safe, and Hafa Adai!

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ32 PGUM 140915
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
TYPHOON DOLPHIN (07W) ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP072015
800 PM CHST THU MAY 14 2015

...TYPHOON DOLPHIN MAINTAINING WEST-NORTHWEST MOVEMENT TOWARD THE
MARIANAS...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM AND ROTA. TYPHOON
CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND TYPHOON WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
TINIAN AND SAIPAN. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF
39 TO 73 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS. TYPHOON CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.1N 150.5E

ABOUT 380 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN AND ROTA
ABOUT 385 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TINIAN
ABOUT 400 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...295 DEGREES AT 15 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON DOLPHIN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.1 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 150.5 EAST. DOLPHIN
IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS FORECAST TRACK TAKES
TYPHOON DOLPHIN THROUGH THE MARIANA ISLANDS BETWEEN GUAM AND ROTA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT REMEMBER THAT SMALL VARIATIONS
IN THE DIRECTION OF MOTION CAN RESULT IN LARGE VARIATIONS IN WHERE
THE CENTER PASSES THROUGH THE MARIANAS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 105 MPH...BUT TYPHOON DOLPHIN
IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES FROM THE CENTER.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES ALONG THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE...AND UP TO 90 MILES ELSEWHERE. THESE WIND RADII
ARE SLIGHTLY REDUCED FROM THE JTWC ESTIMATES BASED ON LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 1100 PM LATER THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT 200 AM FRIDAY MORNING.

$$

W. AYDLETT/EDSON

[xtyphooncyclonex]

According to Colorado State University hurricane scientist Phil Klotzbach, the seven storms so far in 2015 have been unusually strong: Northwest Pacific Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) was at record high through May 11 (78.1), just ahead of the old record of 77.7 in 1957. The early and violent start to 2015 typhoon season is due, in part, to exceptionally warm ocean temperatures in the typhoon breeding region between 5 - 10°N near the Date Line. These temperatures have been over 2°C (3.6°F) above average in recent months, due to a strengthening El Niño event.

[euro6208]

Splendid outflow feeding into a well defined CDO that continues to organize...Looks like it's about to rapidly intensify...

[cycloneye]

First large bands approaching Guam and Rota.

[euro6208]

Models are all over the place...

NAVGEM goes right between Rota and Saipan



CMC over Guam



EURO over Rota



GFS likes Saipan

[SouthDadeFish]

Microwave imagery still shows a very small and compact core. I also do not see any signs of a secondary eyewall forming yet, which is surprising considering how small the original eyewall was. I think the large feeder band that was observed to the NE of the cyclone the past few days hindered the intensification process a bit, as well as maybe some dry air entrainment? Thankfully, the storm isn't nearly as strong now as it looks it could have been at this time a few days ago. However, a lot can change between now and landfall.

[euro6208]

Up to 95 knots!

07W DOLPHIN 150514 1200 12.5N 149.7E WPAC 95 952

[euro6208]

Gas stations were packed today and many people buying groceries. Many cars on the road and people taking this seriously...Now we are getting the first major rain showers as the first bands move in...

[euro6208]

Latest warning is more northerly passing north of Rota. Dolphin should slow down as it nears. Looking like Guam will again be spared like many TC in the past...

Chaser Jim Edds is in Rota and you can follow him here

http://twitter.com/extremestorms

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

The combination of southerly wind shear and large amounts of dry air continues to hinder Typhoon Dolphin's intensification process this afternoon. Convection near the center, although deep, is bursting and irregular, and the storm's partial inner core is fragile. The low-level and mid-level centers may be tilted some. I have a hard time believing this is a 95kt cyclone.

[1900hurricane]

Yeah, 85 kt would probably be my intensity estimate, and even that may be slightly generous. I was obviously way too bullish earlier with my rapid intensification expectaions. Perhaps if I had looked at the situation in a little more detail instead of making Dolphin and the WPac a second priority to southern plains severe weather, I would have made a more accurate forecast with tempered expectations.

[wxman57]

Looks a lot weaker, to me. Center is nearly exposed NE of the convection. Eyewall gone on microwave imagery.

[euro6208]

000
WGMY60 PGUM 142039
FFAMY

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
639 AM CHST FRI MAY 15 2015

...TYPHOON DOLPHIN CAN BRING EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...

.AS TYPHOON DOLPHIN PASSES NEAR THE MARIANAS...HEAVY RAIN FALL
WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THESE RAIN TOTALS WILL
LIKELY OVERWHELM THE CAPACITY OF THE SOIL TO ABSORB MOISTURE AND
THE LOCAL DRAINAGE SYSTEMS.

GUZ001>004-150815-
/O.CON.PGUM.FF.A.0001.000000T0000Z-150516T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-
639 AM CHST FRI MAY 15 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* THE ISLANDS OF GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND SAIPAN.

* THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT

* TYPHOON DOLPHIN COULD BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO THE MARIANA
ISLANDS...5 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

* ROADS IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS COULD BECOME IMPASSABLE. HOUSES
IN LOW-LYING AREAS AND CLOSE TO STREAMS AND RIVERS COULD START
TAKING ON WATER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED. IF ANY STORM DRAINS NEAR
YOU ARE CLOGGED WITH DEBRIS...CLEAN THEM OUT TO MINIMIZE THE
IMPACTS OF ANY FLOODING. IF LIVE NEAR STREAMS AND RIVERS...PAY
CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE WATER LEVELS.

&&

$$

STANKO/CHAN

000
WTPQ82 PGUM 141824
HLSPQ2

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TYPHOON DOLPHIN (07W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
424 AM CHST FRI MAY 15 2015

...TYPHOON DOLPHIN RESUMING INTENSIFICATION...

.NEW INFORMATION...
THE CENTER OF TYPHOON DOLPHIN IS STARTING TO APPEAR ON THE PGUA
DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DISPLAY.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE IN GUAM...THE NORTHERN MARIANAS AND SURROUNDING
WATERS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TYPHOON WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR TINIAN...TINIAN WATERS...
SAIPAN AND SAIPAN WATERS.

A TYPHOON WARNING CONTINUES FOR GUAM...GUAM WATERS...ROTA AND ROTA
WATERS.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF GUAM AND THE
NORTHERN MARIANAS. PLEASE LISTEN CLOSELY FOR ANY FLOOD WARNINGS
THAT MIGHT BE IN EFFECT FOR YOUR AREA.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 2 AM CHST...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON DOLPHIN (07W) WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 12.8N...LONGITUDE 149.0E...OR ABOUT 270 MILES EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF ROTA...TINIAN AND SAIPAN. THIS WAS ABOUT 290 MILES
EAST OF GUAM. STORM MOTION WAS WEST-NORTHWEST AT 18 MPH. STORM
INTENSITY WAS 110 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
AS TYPHOON DOLPHIN MOVES THROUGH THE MARIANAS WATERS WINDS AND
SEAS WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY. MOVE TO SAFE SHELTER AWAY FROM
SHORE NOW IF YOU ARE NOT ALREADY THERE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS APPEAR TO
BE A LITTLE LESS THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. NEVERTHELESS...CONTINUE
TO LISTEN CLOSELY FOR FLOOD WARNINGS IF RAIN AMOUNTS SHOULD
INCREASE AGAIN.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
NOW IS THE TIME TO RUSH TO COMPLETION PREPARATIONS FOR THE
PROTECTION OF LIFE AND PROPERTY. EVACUATE TO THE HOME OF A FRIEND
OR RELATIVE...OR A DESIGNATED SHELTER IF YOUR HOME IS VULNERABLE
TO HIGH WINDS OR FLOODING.

FOR MARINERS...URGENTLY COMPLETE PRESCRIBED PREPARATIONS
ACCORDING TO YOUR EMERGENCY OPERATIONS PLAN FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.
IF YOU LIVE ON A BOAT...MAKE FINAL PREPARATIONS FOR SECURING YOUR
CRAFT BEFORE LEAVING IT. BE SURE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBLE
CLOSURE OF CAUSEWAYS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT AND WELL
SECURED.

CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS
FOR OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST.

FOR ADDITIONAL PRECAUTIONARY AND PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION...
PLEASE REFER TO THE DETAILED RECOMMENDATIONS RELATIVE TO YOUR
LOCATION AS FURTHER DESCRIBED BELOW AND BY LOCAL EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TIYAN AROUND 9 AM CHST...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

GUZ001-PMZ151-150230-
/O.CON.PGUM.TY.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
GUAM-GUAM COASTAL WATERS-
424 AM CHST FRI MAY 15 2015

...TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
RUSH TO COMPLETION THE FINAL PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY. HARDEN YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS BY CLOSING SHUTTERS AND
BRACING GARAGE DOORS. DO NOT STAY IN A MOBILE OR MANUFACTURED
HOME. REMEMBER...PETS ARE NOT ALLOWED IN MOST OFFICIAL
SHELTERS...SO CHECK AHEAD WITH YOUR INTENDED SHELTER.

IF STAYING IN A HOME...TURN THE REFRIGERATOR TO MAXIMUM COLD AND
KEEP IT CLOSED. TURN OFF PROPANE TANKS AND UNPLUG SMALL
APPLIANCES. FILL THE BATHTUB WITH WATER IN CASE THE TAP WATER
BECOMES UNAVAILABLE AFTER THE STORM. THIS IS FOR CLEANING AND
FLUSHING PURPOSES. DO NOT DRINK IT. BOAT OWNERS AND CAPTAINS OF
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD RUSH TO COMPLETION THE SECURING OF THEIR CRAFT.

&&

...WINDS...
AS TYPHOON DOLPHIN (07W) APPROACHES...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN MID TO LATE MORNING. MAXIMUM
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60 TO 75 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO
90 MPH. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY. MOST TIN-ROOF HOMES WILL
LOSE THEIR ROOF AND WALLS MAY COLLAPSE. OTHER HOMES MAY HAVE
DAMAGE TO SHINGLES...SIDING...GUTTERS AND WINDOWS...ESPECIALLY IF
THESE ITEMS ARE NOT PROPERLY SECURED. LOOSE OUTDOOR ITEMS WILL
BECOME AIRBORNE...CAUSING ADDITIONAL DAMAGE AND POSSIBLE INJURY.
SOME POWER LINES WILL BE KNOCKED DOWN AND ELECTRICITY AND WATER
MAY NOT BE AVAILABLE FOR DAYS. MANY LARGE BRANCHES OF TREES WILL
BE SNAPPED...AND A FEW TREES WILL BE UPROOTED.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
SEAS OF 12 TO 15 FEET WILL BUILD TO 20 FEET OR HIGHER AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. THIS WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUS SURF OF 16 TO 20 FEET
ALONG NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES WITH EVEN HIGHER SURF ON EAST
FACING SHORES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE CENTER PASSES.
COASTAL INUNDATION OF 2 TO 3 FEET IS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY NEAR HIGH
TIDE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AROUND 545 PM.

...FLOODING...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. SEE
LATEST FORECAST FOR LATEST INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR YOUR LOCATION...AND BE READY TO ACT IF FLOODING RAINS
OCCUR.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
SATURDAY. ALSO...SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 84 COULD BE LOWERED
FOR A FEW DAYS.

$$

GUZ002-PMZ152-150230-
/O.CON.PGUM.TY.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
ROTA-ROTA COASTAL WATERS-
424 AM CHST FRI MAY 15 2015

...TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
RUSH TO COMPLETION THE FINAL PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY. HARDEN YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS BY CLOSING SHUTTERS AND
BRACING GARAGE DOORS. DO NOT STAY IN A TIN-ROOF OR MANUFACTURED
HOME. REMEMBER...PETS ARE NOT ALLOWED IN MOST OFFICIAL
SHELTERS...SO CHECK AHEAD WITH YOUR INTENDED SHELTER.

IF STAYING IN A HOME...TURN THE REFRIGERATOR TO MAXIMUM COLD AND
KEEP IT CLOSED. TURN OFF PROPANE TANKS AND UNPLUG SMALL
APPLIANCES. FILL THE BATHTUB WITH WATER IN CASE THE TAP WATER
BECOMES UNAVAILABLE AFTER THE STORM. THIS IS FOR CLEANING AND
FLUSHING PURPOSES. DO NOT DRINK IT. BOAT OWNERS AND CAPTAINS OF
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD RUSH TO COMPLETION THE SECURING OF THEIR CRAFT.

&&

...WINDS...
AS TYPHOON DOLPHIN (07W) APPROACHES...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN THIS MORNING AND TYPHOON FORCE
WINDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
LAST FOR SEVERAL HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 95
TO 115 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 150 MPH. DEVASTATING DAMAGE IS
LIKELY. COLLAPSE OF SOME WOODEN RESIDENTIAL STRUCTURES WILL PUT
LIVES AT RISK. AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL CAUSE EXTENSIVE DAMAGE.
PERSONS... PETS...AND LIVESTOCK STRUCK BY THE WIND-BLOWN DEBRIS
WILL BE INJURED OR KILLED. NEARLY ALL TIN-ROOF HOMES WILL BE
DESTROYED. MOST HOMES OF NON-CONCRETE CONSTRUCTION WILL SUSTAIN
SEVERE DAMAGE WITH POTENTIAL FOR COMPLETE ROOF FAILURE AND WALL
COLLAPSE. SOME INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED...WITH
OTHERS EXPERIENCING PARTIAL ROOF AND WALL DAMAGE. MOST LOW RISE
APARTMENT BUILDINGS MAY SUSTAIN SEVERE DAMAGE... WHILE OTHERS WILL
HAVE PARTIAL ROOF AND WALL FAILURE. CONSIDERABLE STRUCTURAL DAMAGE
TO LARGE BUILDINGS IS POSSIBLE. ELECTRICITY AND WATER WILL BE
UNAVAILABLE FOR DAYS AND PERHAPS WEEKS AFTER THE STORM PASSES.
MANY TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. FALLEN TREES MAY CUT OFF
RESIDENTIAL AREAS FOR DAYS TO WEEKS.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
SEAS OF 12 TO 15 FEET WILL BUILD TO 20 FEET OR HIGHER AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. THIS WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUS SURF OF 16 TO 22 FEET
ALONG ALL SHORES THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE CENTER OF
DOLPHIN PASSES...AND ALONG WEST AND SOUTH FACING SHORES IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AFTER DOLPHIN PASSES. COASTAL
INUNDATION OF 3 TO 5 FEET IS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY NEAR HIGH TIDE
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AT ABOUT 545 PM.

...FLOODING...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. SEE
LATEST FORECAST FOR LATEST INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR YOUR LOCATION...AND BE READY TO ACT IF FLOODING RAINS
OCCUR.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY.

$$

GUZ003-004-PMZ153-154-150230-
/O.UPG.PGUM.TR.W.0003.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.UPG.PGUM.TY.A.0002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.EXA.PGUM.TY.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
TINIAN-SAIPAN-TINIAN COASTAL WATERS-SAIPAN COASTAL WATERS-
424 AM CHST FRI MAY 15 2015

...TYPHOON WARNING IN EFFECT...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
RUSH TO COMPLETION THE FINAL PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY. HARDEN YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS BY CLOSING SHUTTERS AND
BRACING GARAGE DOORS. DO NOT STAY IN A TIN-ROOF OR MANUFACTURED
HOME. REMEMBER...PETS ARE NOT ALLOWED IN MOST OFFICIAL
SHELTERS...SO CHECK AHEAD WITH YOUR INTENDED SHELTER.

IF STAYING IN A HOME...TURN THE REFRIGERATOR TO MAXIMUM COLD AND
KEEP IT CLOSED. TURN OFF PROPANE TANKS AND UNPLUG SMALL
APPLIANCES. FILL THE BATHTUB WITH WATER IN CASE THE TAP WATER
BECOMES UNAVAILABLE AFTER THE STORM. THIS IS FOR CLEANING AND
FLUSHING PURPOSES. DO NOT DRINK IT. BOAT OWNERS AND CAPTAINS OF
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD RUSH TO COMPLETION THE SECURING OF THEIR CRAFT.

&&

...WINDS...
AS TYPHOON DOLPHIN (07W) APPROACHES...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN MID TO LATE MORNING. MAXIMUM
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 70 TO 85 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO
100 MPH. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY. MOST TIN-ROOF HOMES WILL
LOSE THEIR ROOF AND WALLS MAY COLLAPSE. OTHER HOMES MAY HAVE
DAMAGE TO SHINGLES...SIDING...GUTTERS AND WINDOWS...ESPECIALLY IF
THESE ITEMS ARE NOT PROPERLY SECURED. LOOSE OUTDOOR ITEMS WILL
BECOME AIRBORNE...CAUSING ADDITIONAL DAMAGE AND POSSIBLE INJURY.
SOME POWER LINES WILL BE KNOCKED DOWN AND ELECTRICITY AND WATER
MAY NOT BE AVAILABLE FOR DAYS. MANY LARGE BRANCHES OF TREES WILL
BE SNAPPED...AND A FEW TREES WILL BE UPROOTED.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
SEAS OF 12 TO 15 FEET WILL BUILD TO 20 FEET OR HIGHER AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. THIS WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUS SURF OF 16 TO 20 FEET
ALONG NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES WITH EVEN HIGHER SURF ON EAST
FACING SHORES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE CENTER PASSES.
COASTAL INUNDATION OF 2 TO 3 FEET IS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY NEAR HIGH
TIDE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AROUND 545 PM.

...FLOODING...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. SEE
LATEST FORECAST FOR LATEST INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR YOUR LOCATION...AND BE READY TO ACT IF FLOODING RAINS
OCCUR.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 7 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
SATURDAY.

$$

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Yeah, 85 kt would probably be my intensity estimate, and even that may be slightly generous. I was obviously way too bullish earlier with my rapid intensification expectaions. Perhaps if I had looked at the situation in a little more detail instead of making Dolphin and the WPac a second priority to southern plains severe weather, I would have made a more accurate forecast with tempered expectations.

Yeah, 80kt to 85kt is probably where I'd put the strength at. Radar out of Guam shows a pretty healthy eyewall even though an eye isn't apparent on conventional satellite. Although Dolphin is still struggling, the core seems better protected from dry air/shear this afternoon, so we'll see if it's able to intensify any over the coming day.

[euro6208]

I have a hard time believing this is a 95kt cyclone.

Looks can be deceiving as evidence by many atlantic storms that's way more disorganized than this with low dvorak values but recon finds something stronger...

This does have a very well defined eyewall that continues to organize based on radar...

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ32 PGUM 142158
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
TYPHOON DOLPHIN (07W) ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP072015
800 AM CHST FRI MAY 15 2015

...TYPHOON DOLPHIN NEARING THE MARIANAS...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND
SAIPAN. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...
ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SUMMARY OF 730 AM CHST...2130 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.0N 147.4E

ABOUT 190 MILES SOUTHEAST OF TINIAN AND SAIPAN
ABOUT 170 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ROTA
ABOUT 185 MILES EAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 730 AM CHST...2130 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON DOLPHIN WAS
LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 147.4 EAST.
DOLPHIN IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 16 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED. DOLPHIN IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE MARIANA
ISLANDS NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF ROTA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 110 MPH. TYPHOON DOLPHIN IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES FROM THE CENTER.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES IN THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE...AND UP TO 110 MILES ELSEWHERE.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 1100 AM THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED
ADVISORY AT 200 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE

[euro6208]

Had a gust of 41 mph about 2 hours ago in the northern part of Guam and pressure of 1003 mb. 4 straight hours of gale force winds...

Further south in Agana, gust are well in excess of TS winds for over 7 hours...

Rain has been off and on nothing major...

Winds are slowly picking up in Rota and 1009 mb

[euro6208]

To my amateur eyes, it looks like the eye is open in the south...