WPAC: HAISHEN - Post Tropical

[jaguarjace]

05W FIVE 150403 0000 8.0N 156.6E WPAC 25 1004

[HurricaneTracker2031]

This TD is very small and has begun building on the limited convection it had. However, it is forecast to strengthen due to favorable conditions. Let's see what this one brings.



Analysis for TD Five-W: http://goo.gl/OcEkoY


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[euro6208]

000
WWPQ80 PGUM 030610
SPSPQ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
410 PM CHST FRI APR 3 2015

PMZ172-173-040200-
CHUUK-POHNPEI-
410 PM CHST FRI APR 3 2015

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO CHUUK STATE...

AT 100 PM CHST...THE CENTER OF NEWLY-FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W
WAS LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES EAST OF CHUUK NEAR 8.2 DEGREES NORTH AND
156.2 DEGREES EAST...MOVING QUICKLY WEST-NORTHWEST AT 20 MPH.

WHILE TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
LATE TONIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING...IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO EITHER CHUUK OR FANANU TO BRING TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS. HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK FOR TD 05W KEEPS IT WELL NORTHEAST OF
CHUUK OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THE EXACT TRACK IS STILL
UNCERTAIN AND A WESTWARD SHIFT COULD BRING THE THREAT OF TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS TO CHUUK AND ISLANDS TO THE NORTH. LISTEN FOR ANY
FURTHER STATEMENTS ON THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W...AND
BE PREPARED TO ACT IF ANY WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE

[cycloneye]

No change on the recurve.



WDPN32 PGTW 031500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (FIVE) WARNING
NR 03//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 05W (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 175 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF CHUUK, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER WITH THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE NORTHWEST. THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR LOOP AND SATELLITE FIXES FROM
PGTW AND RJTD WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT
30 KNOTS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH 10 TO 20 KNOT
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TD 05W IS
TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAK EXTENSION
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 05W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
THE STR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER TAU 24, A MIDLATITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN TO THE WEST WEAKENING THE STEERING STR
AND CAUSING A PERIOD OF QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION. TD 05W IS FORECAST
TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS PRIMARILY DUE TO
IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH.
AFTER TAU 48, TD 05W SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AS
THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND DOMINATES THE
STEERING ENVIRONMENT.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, TD 05W IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN DUE TO HIGHER VWS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH, LEADING TO ITS DISSIPATION NEAR TAU 96.
AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST
SCENARIO; HOWEVER, THERE IS A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORWARD SPEED AND TIMING OF THE NORTHEASTWARD SHIFT IN TRACK. DUE TO
THESE FACTORS, JTWC FORECAST CONFIDENCE LEVEL REMAINS LOW.//
NNNN

[cycloneye]

No change.



WDPN32 PGTW 032100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (FIVE) WARNING
NR 04//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 05W (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 136 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF CHUUK, FSM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH
THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE NORTHWEST. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR LOOP AND RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE
PASSES WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 30
KNOTS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM ALL
REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH 10 TO 20 KNOT VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TD 05W IS TRACKING
WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAK EXTENSION OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE CYCLONE IS NOW FORECAST TO DISSIPATE SOONER - BY TAU 72,
OTHERWISE, THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY
SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 05W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
THE STR OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AFTERWARDS, A MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DIGGING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL WEAKEN THE STEERING STR AND
CAUSE A PERIOD OF QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION BEFORE A NEAR EQUATORIAL
RIDGE (NER) TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL ASSUME STEERING BY TAU 48. TD 05W
MAY INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 40 KNOTS MAINLY DUE TO THE GOOD OUTFLOW.
HOWEVER, AFTER THE NER ASSUMES STEERING AND NUDGES THE SYSTEM
POLEWARD, THE VWS WILL INCREASE AND ERODE THE SYSTEM TO ITS
DISSIPATION. THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE STEERING PATTERN AS
REFLECTED IN THE WIDE SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE; THEREFORE, THERE
IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ32 PGUM 032108
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP052015
800 AM CHST SAT APR 4 2015

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W MOVING SLOWLY WEST...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...8.5N 153.7E

ABOUT 110 MILES EAST OF FANANU
ABOUT 140 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF CHUUK
ABOUT 325 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF POHNPEI AND
ABOUT 695 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...270 DEGREES AT 8 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W
IS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 8.5 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 153.7 EAST...
MOVING WEST AT 8 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE MOVING IN THIS GENERAL DIRECTION AND CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN
THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN TURN NORTHEASTWARD ON SUNDAY. WITH THIS
FORECAST TRACK...05W WOULD MOVE TO WITHIN 15 MILES OF FANANU AND 90
MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CHUUK SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE MAKING ITS TURN
TO THE NORTHEAST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 35 MPH...MAINLY NORTHWEST AND
NORTH OF THE CENTER. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY
INTENSIFY INTO A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...THEN REACH ITS PEAK
INTENSITY AS A TROPICAL STORM SUNDAY. ONCE 05W TURNS NORTHEAST...IT
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 PM...OR SOONER IF NECESSARY.

$$

ZIOBRO

[euro6208]

It looks quite organized for a TD.

[euro6208]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 03 APR 2015 Time : 203000 UTC
Lat : 8:29:08 N Lon : 153:44:53 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.6 /1008.0mb/ 37.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.4 2.2 2.2

Center Temp : -16.6C Cloud Region Temp : -50.2C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.42 ARC in LT GRAY
Maximum CURVED BAND with 0.80 ARC in LT GRAY
at Lat: 9:04:47 N Lon: 153:20:23 E

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : N/A
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 14.3 degrees

[euro6208]

5 out of 5!

Now the 5th tropical storm of the season!

[euro6208]

3.0!

TXPQ27 KNES 032214
TCSWNP

A. 05W (NONAME)

B. 03/2032Z

C. 8.3N

D. 152.9E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T3.0/3.0/D2.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...MET IS 2.5 BASED ON RAPID DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LAST 24
HOURS. PT IS 3.0. 6/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 3.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

03/1807Z 8.7N 154.1E SSMIS


...TURK

[euro6208]

Very impressive...

[euro6208]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 04 APR 2015 Time : 003000 UTC
Lat : 8:35:51 N Lon : 152:53:19 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.6 /1008.0mb/ 37.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.6 2.9 3.2

Center Temp : -75.3C Cloud Region Temp : -66.9C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : N/A
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 13.6 degrees

[euro6208]

NWS:

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR FANANU.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE CHUUK LAGOON AREA.

[euro6208]

what name is this to get euro

Haishen...

[euro6208]

WDPN32 PGTW 040300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 05W (FIVE) WARNING NR 05//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 89 NM
NORTHEAST OF CHUUK, FSM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS
THE SYSTEM HAS SLIGHTLY CONSOLIDATED AS CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPED
TIGHTER INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI LOOP AND ON A LLCC FEATURE IN THE 2156Z
36GHZ GPM SATELLITE PASS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK ESTIMATES
FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH 10 TO 20 KNOT VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TS 05W IS TRACKING
WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAK EXTENSION OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 05W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
THE STR OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AFTERWARDS, A MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DIGGING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL WEAKEN THE STEERING STR AND
CAUSE A PERIOD OF QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION BEFORE A NEAR EQUATORIAL
RIDGE (NER) TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL ASSUME STEERING BY TAU 48. TS 05W
MAY INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 45 KNOTS MAINLY DUE TO THE GOOD OUTFLOW.
HOWEVER, AFTER THE NER ASSUMES STEERING AND NUDGES THE SYSTEM
POLEWARD, THE VWS WILL INCREASE AND ERODE THE SYSTEM TO ITS
DISSIPATION. THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE STEERING PATTERN AS
REFLECTED IN THE WIDE SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE; THEREFORE, THERE
IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ32 PGUM 040333 CCA
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM 05W ADVISORY NUMBER 5...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
TIYAN GU WP052015 1220 PM CHST SAT APR 4 2015

CORRECTED TYPO AND EXPECTED PEAK INTENSITY

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM...

CHANGES THIS ADVISORY
---------------------

NONE

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FANANU.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CHUUK LAGOON AREA.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...8.6N 152.8E

ABOUT 50 MILES EAST OF FANANU
ABOUT 100 MILES NORTHEAST OF WENO ISLAND CHUUK AND
ABOUT 640 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...270 DEGREES AT 8 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM 05W IS
EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 8.6 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 152.8
EAST...MOVING WEST AT 8 MPH. SPEED OF MOVEMENT IS UNCERTAIN.
TROPICAL STORM 05W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A GENERAL WESTWARD
MOTION AND SLOW DOWN THROUGH THIS EVENING. IT IS EXPECTED TO TURN
NORTHEASTWARD ON SUNDAY. WITH THIS FORECAST TRACK...05W WOULD MOVE
VERY CLOSE TO FANANU AND WITHIN 90 MILES OF WENO CHUUK BY EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE MAKING ITS TURN TO THE NORTHEAST. ERRATIC
MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS VERY POSSIBLE.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM 05W IS EXPECTED
TO BRIEFLY INTENSIFY WITH WINDS OF 45 MPH NEAR THE CENTER TONIGHT...
THEN REACH ITS PEAK INTENSITY AS A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM OF 50 MPH
ON SUNDAY. ONCE TROPICAL STORM 05W TURNS NORTHEAST...IT IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 500 PM THIS AFTERNOON OR SOONER...FOLLOWED BY A SCHEDULED
ADVISORY AT 800 PM...OR SOONER IF NECESSARY.

$$

GUARD/




000
WTPQ82 PGUM 040237
HLSPQ2

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM (05W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1235 PM CHST SAT APR 4 2015

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W IS NOW A TROPICAL STORM NEAR FANANU IN
CHUUK STATE...

.AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE ON FANANU ISLAND AND THE CHUUK LAGOON AREA IN CHUUK STATE.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR FANANU.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE CHUUK LAGOON AREA.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...8.6N 152.8E

ABOUT 50 MILES EAST OF FANANU
ABOUT 100 MILES NORTHEAST OF WENO ISLAND OF CHUUK
ABOUT 640 MILES EAST-SOUTHWEST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...270 DEGREES AT 8 MPH

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W HAS STRENGTHENED INTO A TROPICAL STORM JUST
EAST OF FANANU IN CHUUK STATE. IT IS ANTICIPATED TO SLOWLY DRIFT
WESTWARD AND PASS VERY CLOSE TO FANANU ON SUNDAY MORNING.

...FANANU...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 MPH ARE
EXPECTED BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. RESIDENTS NEED TO GO TO SHELTERS
OR STURDY STRUCTURES WHICH CAN WITHSTAND DAMAGING WINDS AS SOON AS
POSSIBLE. MAKE SURE TO HAVE ADEQUATE FOOD AND WATER FOR A COUPLE OF
DAYS. INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL SHOULD BE POSTPONED UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS
HAVE SUBSIDED ON MONDAY.

...WIND INFORMATION...

DAMAGING NORTH WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
THIS EVENING AND THEN SOUTHWEST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS SHOULD
GRADUALLY DECREASE STARTING LATE SUNDAY MORNING.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...

COMBINED SEAS WILL BUILD AND REACH 10 TO 12 FEET BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. SURF ALONG NORTH AND EAST FACING SHORES WILL BECOME
HAZARDOUS AT 12 TO 14 FEET BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COULD CAUSE
INUNDATION OF ABOUT ONE FOOT AT HIGH TIDE.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...

RAINFALL OF 3 TO 5 INCHES IS LIKELY BY SUNDAY MORNING.

...CHUUK LAGOON AREA...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TROPICAL STORM 05W IS EXPECTED TO STAY NORTH OF CHUUK LAGOON BUT ANY
SOUTHWARD DEVIATION ON ITS TRACK COULD BRING DAMAGING WINDS TO THE
CHUUK LAGOON AREA. RESIDENTS NEED TO REVIEW THEIR TROPICAL STORM
EMERGENCY PLAN AND MONITOR THE SITUATION CLOSELY. STAY INFORMED WITH
THE LATEST INFORMATION FROM THE LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICE. INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL OUTSIDE OF CHUUK
LAGOON SHOULD NOT BE ATTEMPTED UNTIL MONDAY.

...WIND INFORMATION...

NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED BY
THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST TONIGHT THEN SOUTHWEST
AND GRADUALLY DECREASE SUNDAY MORNING.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...

COMBINED SEAS WILL BUILD AND REACH 8 TO 11 FEET OUTSIDE THE LAGOON
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SURF ALONG NORTH AND WEST FACING REEFS WILL
BECOME HAZARDOUS AT 9 TO 12 FEET BY THIS EVENING. INSIDE THE
LAGOON...CHOPPY WIND WAVES OF 3 TO 4 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING.
WE WILL MONITOR RAINFALL FOR MUDSLIDE POTENTIAL.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...

THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT ON TROPICAL STORM 05W WILL BE ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY 900 PM TONIGHT.

$$

CHAN

[euro6208]

3.5!

TXPQ27 KNES 040333
TCSWNP

A. 05W (NONAME)

B. 04/0301Z

C. 8.7N

D. 152.8E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T3.5/3.5/D2.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED RAPIDLY SO MET=3.0 ON RAPID
CURVE. DT=3.5 BASED ON 8/10 VIS BANDING AND PAT=3.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

03/2136Z 8.8N 153.0E SSMIS


...SWANSON

[dexterlabio]

uhm, JMA? Hi there.

[euro6208]

Up to 45 knots!

05W FIVE 150404 0600 8.9N 152.1E WPAC 45 989

[talkon]

JMA upgrades to TS Haishen and forecast a STS in 12 hours


TS 1505 (HAISHEN)
Issued at 07:15 UTC, 4 April 2015

<Analyses at 04/06 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N8°35'(8.6°)
E152°25'(152.4°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slowly
Central pressure 1002hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL110km(60NM)

<Forecast for 05/06 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N9°20'(9.3°)
E151°55'(151.9°)
Direction and speed of movement Almost stationary
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)

<Forecast for 06/06 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N10°00'(10.0°)
E151°00'(151.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NW Slowly
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)

<Forecast for 07/06 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N11°20'(11.3°)
E150°20'(150.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW Slowly
Central pressure 994hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)