WPAC: ATSANI - Post-Tropical

[dexterlabio]

Yeah I hear you. That will be a matter of timing if the STR rebuilds just in time before Atsani clears off east of Japan. But all I'm saying is that a "trough-y" setup like this will favor a northward movement for cyclones developing in the WPAC. This is not surprising since El Nino is very well in place now.

[cycloneye]

WTPN32 PGTW 150300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 17W (ATSANI) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150000Z --- NEAR 14.9N 162.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 14.9N 162.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 15.0N 161.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 15.0N 161.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 15.2N 160.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 15.6N 159.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 17.2N 157.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 19.2N 154.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 21.4N 151.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
150300Z POSITION NEAR 14.9N 162.0E.
TROPICAL STORM 17W (ATSANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 187 NM NORTH
OF ENEWETAK, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS 15 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 150900Z, 151500Z, 152100Z AND 160300Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL STORM 16W (GONI) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[Yellow Evan]

Atsani is gradually becoming better organized. While I'm not of a fan of it's structure, deep convection is increased along the center. Like Goni, upper-level outflow looks well established. Assuming this can avoid dry air, which the GFS doesn't have it being too much of an issue, and stay somewhat compact, this should become a super typhoon.

[Yellow Evan]

TPPN12 PGTW 150633

A. TROPICAL STORM 17W (ATSANI)

B. 15/0532Z

C. 14.95N

D. 161.98E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .40 ON LOG10
SPIRAL, YIELDING A DT OF 2.5. PT AGREES WITH DT, WHILE MET
YIELDS A 2.0. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


CHAPPOTIN

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ32 PGUM 150940
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ATSANI (17W) ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP172015
800 PM CHST SAT AUG 15 2015

...TROPICAL STORM ATSANI SLOWLY DRIFTING WEST-NORTHWEST...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 161.8E

ABOUT 250 MILES NORTH OF ENEWETAK
ABOUT 435 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND
ABOUT 1070 MILES EAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 1145 MILES EAST OF GUAM
ABOUT 1070 MILES EAST OF ALAMAGAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...DRIFTING WEST-NORTHWEST.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ATSANI
(17W) WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 161.8
EAST...AND IS DRIFTING WEST-NORTHWEST. ATSANI IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE DRIFTING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST...THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 45 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL
STORM ATSANI IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AND POSSIBLY BECOME A TYPHOON LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY
MORNING.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 AM EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

$$

W. AYDLETT

[euro6208]

WDPN32 PGTW 150900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 17W (ATSANI) WARNING NR
05//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 17W (ATSANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 316 NM
NORTH OF UJELANG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED LLCC WITH
GOOD CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. TO NOTE, THE SYSTEM
APPEARS TO BE QUASI-STATIONARY. ADDITIONALLY, THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO
HAVE NEAR RADIAL OUTFLOW. 150453Z SSMIS IMAGE SHOWS GOOD CONVECTION
AND ELONGATED LLCC. THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED DUE TO DVORAK
ESTIMATES AND GOOD STRUCTURE. VWS IS VERY LOW, LESS THAN 10 KNOTS,
AND THERE IS GOOD OVERALL OUTFLOW. TS 17W IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN A STR TO THE NORTH AND A NER
TO THE SOUTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. NEAR STATIONARY MOVEMENT IS FORECASTED OVER THE NEXT 24 AS THE
STR AND NER CONTINUE TO COMPETE FOR STEERING. HOWEVER, BY TAU 36,
THE NER WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST, ALLOWING TS ATSANI TO TRACK TO
THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW TS 17W TO ACCELERATE NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 72. TS 17W IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AFTER TAU 48
UNDER VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS TO INCLUDE RADIAL
OUTFLOW, WARM SST AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS 17W WILL MAINTAIN A NORTHWESTWARD
TRAJECTORY AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
STR. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, HOWEVER,
THERE IS LOW OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE
ERRATIC MOTION EXPECTED IN THE SHORT-TERM.//
NNNN

[Yellow Evan]

TPPN12 PGTW 151515

A. TROPICAL STORM 17W (ATSANI)

B. 15/1432Z

C. 15.32N

D. 161.63E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .80 ON LOG10
SPIRAL, YIELDING A DT OF 3.5. MET AND PT AGREE WITH DT. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


CHAPPOTIN

[Yellow Evan]

WDPN32 PGTW 151500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 17W (ATSANI) WARNING NR
06//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 17W (ATSANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 321 NM
NORTH OF UJELANG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 01 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED IR SHOWS DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED LLCC
WITH GOOD CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE QUASI-STATIONARY LLCC.
A 151016Z AMSU-B IMAGE SHOWS THE DEEP CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHERN
SIDE. THE INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE AND THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED DUE TO RISING DVORAK
ESTIMATES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW VWS AND GOOD OVERALL
OUTFLOW. TS 17W IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT
BETWEEN A STR TO THE NORTH AND A NER TO THE SOUTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. NEAR STATIONARY MOVEMENT IS FORECASTED OVER THE NEXT 24 AS THE
STR AND NER CONTINUE TO COMPETE FOR STEERING. HOWEVER, BY TAU 36,
THE NER WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST, ALLOWING TS ATSANI TO
ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHWEST AND CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY.
C. IN THE EXTENDED OUTLOOK, TS 17W IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY
INTENSIFY DUE TO VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS TO INCLUDE
RADIAL OUTFLOW, WARM SST AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. TS ATSANI WILL
MAINTAIN A NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT, BUT DUE TO ITS SLOW MOVEMENT IN THE SHORT-TERM,
THERE IS LOW OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

WTPN32 PGTW 151500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 17W (ATSANI) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151200Z --- NEAR 15.1N 161.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.1N 161.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 15.1N 161.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 15.2N 160.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 15.7N 159.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 16.5N 158.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 18.6N 155.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 20.6N 152.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 22.4N 150.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
151500Z POSITION NEAR 15.1N 161.7E.
TROPICAL STORM 17W (ATSANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 321 NM NORTH
OF UJELANG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 01 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 18 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 152100Z, 160300Z, 160900Z AND 161500Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL STORM 16W (GONI) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

[cycloneye]

WTPN32 PGTW 152100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 17W (ATSANI) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151800Z --- NEAR 15.2N 161.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2N 161.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 15.2N 160.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 15.4N 159.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 15.9N 158.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 16.8N 156.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 18.8N 153.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 20.6N 151.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 22.7N 149.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
152100Z POSITION NEAR 15.2N 161.1E.
TROPICAL STORM 17W (ATSANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 216 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF ENEWETAK, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z
IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160300Z, 160900Z, 161500Z AND 162100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 16W (GONI) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

EURO has a Cat 5 in 96 hours and peaks it at 895 mb, could be a big typhoon down the road for Japan...

[euro6208]

A peak of 874 mb and a Cat 5 for 6 days?

[Yellow Evan]

ECMWF also bring this to sub-900 mbar.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Eye candy from Himawari 8 shows Goni and Atsani strengthening

[Yellow Evan]

Atsani is likely around 55-60. ASCAT earlier found a barb of around 49 knts. Since that time, Atsani has become better organized and is likely approaching typhoon intensity.

[1900hurricane]

Perhaps a banding type eye trying to form?

[Yellow Evan]

TXPQ26 KNES 160351
TCSWNP

A. 17W (ATSANI)

B. 16/0232Z

C. 14.6N

D. 160.6E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T4.0/4.0/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...DT OF 4.0 IS BASED ON 1.1 BANDING IN VIS IMAGERY. MET AND
PT ARE 4.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...RAMIREZ

[xtyphooncyclonex]

TY 1516 (ATSANI)
Issued at 13:00 UTC, 16 August 2015

<Analyses at 16/12 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N14°10'(14.2°)
E159°50'(159.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW Slowly
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL90km(50NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more S280km(150NM)
N220km(120NM)

<Forecast for 17/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N15°20'(15.3°)
E158°00'(158.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW Slowly
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area ALL240km(130NM)

<Forecast for 18/12 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N17°25'(17.4°)
E155°10'(155.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 940hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area ALL370km(200NM)

<Forecast for 19/12 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N19°40'(19.7°)
E152°25'(152.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 925hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(95kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(135kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area ALL500km(270NM)

[euro6208]

EURO and GFS at 897 mb and 877 mb!

[euro6208]

[dexterlabio]

Atsani seems to having his eye as well. I don't know if that's a dry slot but it looks like it will also bomb like Goni.