WPAC: NANGKA - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

looks like the weather station in enewetak is down since recording 45 mph sustain gusting to 58 mph...997mb...

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ83 PGUM 051104
HLSPQ3

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA (11W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
900 PM CHST SUN JUL 5 2015

...TROPICAL STORM NANGKA CLOSE TO ENEWETAK...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE IN ENEWETAK ATOLL IN THE WESTERN MARSHALL ISLANDS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ENEWETAK ATOLL. TYPHOON
CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 700 PM CHST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NANGKA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 11.4 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 162.9 EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT 35 MILES EAST OF ENEWETAK
ABOUT 640 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF MAJURO

TROPICAL STORM NANGKA IS MOVING WEST AT 14 MPH WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 60 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA IS QUICKLY MOVING WEST TOWARDS ENEWETAK ATOLL
AND IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE ATOLL WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. NANGKA WILL CONTINUE WEST...WITH A SLIGHT SHIFT TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TROPICAL STORM NANGKA IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND COULD
BECOME A TYPHOON WEST OF ENEWETAK ON MONDAY.

...ENEWETAK...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH WILL CONTINUE OVER
ENEWETAK THROUGH TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CENTER OF
THE STORM IS CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE ATOLL. AS THE CENTER MOVES
OVER THE ATOLL...WINDS WILL LIKELY DECREASE TEMPORARILY. THIS IS NOT
THE END OF THE STORM. DAMAGING WINDS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY AS THE
EASTERN SIDE OF NANGKA PASSES OVER LATER TONIGHT. REMAIN IN SHELTER
UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING WHEN WINDS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE. INTER-ISLAND
TRAVEL SHOULD BE POSTPONED UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED LATER
ON MONDAY. FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS FROM YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
OFFICIALS.

...WIND INFORMATION...
DAMAGING NORTH WINDS OF 50 TO 60 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AROUND
MIDNIGHT...LOCAL TIME AS THE CENTER PASSES OVERHEAD...THIS WILL NOT
BE THE END OF THE STORM. WINDS WILL QUICKLY REVERSE TO SOUTH AND
INCREASE TO BETWEEN 50 AND 60 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE CENTER. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO BETWEEN 30 AND
40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH LATER MONDAY MORNING.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
SEAS OF 13 AND 18 FEET TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. DANGEROUS SURF OF 14 TO 20 FEET WILL
BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATE MONDAY MORNING.

COASTAL INUNDATION OF 2 TO 3 FEET IS EXPECTED ALONG NORTH AND EAST
FACING SHORES AS NANGKA APPROACHES...WHILE INUNDATION OF 1 TO 2 FEET
IS POSSIBLE ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES ONCE NANGKA PASSES TO THE
WEST.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AROUND 300 AM CHST MONDAY MORNING...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

$$

W. AYDLETT

[euro6208]

GFS through the Northern Islands and peaks it at 913 mb...

[euro6208]

TROPICAL STORM NANGKA ANALYSED POSITION : 11.7N 164.5E



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 05.07.2015 11.7N 164.5E MODERATE

12UTC 05.07.2015 12.0N 161.5E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 06.07.2015 12.4N 159.1E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 06.07.2015 13.1N 157.3E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 07.07.2015 14.2N 155.4E STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 07.07.2015 15.6N 153.7E STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 08.07.2015 16.7N 151.8E STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 08.07.2015 17.9N 150.0E STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 09.07.2015 18.8N 148.2E STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 09.07.2015 19.2N 146.3E STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 10.07.2015 19.4N 144.6E STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 10.07.2015 19.7N 143.2E INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 11.07.2015 19.8N 141.8E INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

[xtyphooncyclonex]

STS 1511 (NANGKA)
Issued at 13:10 UTC, 5 July 2015

<Analyses at 05/12 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N10°50'(10.8°)
E162°35'(162.6°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL220km(120NM)

<Forecast for 06/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N11°30'(11.5°)
E160°05'(160.1°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)

<Forecast for 06/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N12°25'(12.4°)
E157°50'(157.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
Storm warning area ALL200km(110NM)

<Forecast for 07/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N14°35'(14.6°)
E153°30'(153.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area ALL370km(200NM)

<Forecast for 08/12 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N17°30'(17.5°)
E149°30'(149.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)
Storm warning area ALL520km(280NM)

[euro6208]

887 mb? !?!?

[euro6208]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 05 JUL 2015 Time : 190000 UTC
Lat : 11:22:56 N Lon : 160:58:57 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.3 / 998.1mb/ 51.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.3 3.4 3.4

Center Temp : -65.7C Cloud Region Temp : -67.7C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 82km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 22.9 degrees

[cycloneye]

New peak intensity is 115kts.




WDPN33 PGTW 052100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 11W (NANGKA) WARNING NR
10//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 11W (NANGKA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 90 NM NORTH OF
UJELANG, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A 051732Z PGTW SATELLITE FIX AND A
051801Z SSMIS PASS. THE INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT
WITH A CONSENSUS OF DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
MULTIPLE REPORTING AGENCIES. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING NEAR THE CENTER OF A
TIGHTLY-WRAPPED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EVIDENT IN THE
1801Z SSMIS IMAGE. IMPROVING LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE HAS ACCOMPANIED A
STEADY INTENSIFICATION TREND OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS
INTENSIFICATION HAS BEEN SUPPORTED BY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, INCLUDING A DEVELOPING POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL ENHANCED BY A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH
(TUTT) CELL TO THE NORTHEAST. TS 11W IS TRACKING ALONG THE PERIPHERY
OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. FORECAST INTENSITIES HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY, AND THE FORECAST
TRACK SPEED FOR THE TAU 96 TO TAU 120 PERIOD HAS DECREASED A BIT
FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. HOWEVER, THERE IS NO MAJOR CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 11W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING
RIDGE PERIPHERY THROUGH THE NEXT 72 HOURS. WESTWARD MOTION WILL
GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AS THE STEERING
RIDGE REORIENTS AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. STEADY
INTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR REMAINS GENERALLY FAVORABLE AND UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS
ENHANCED BY THE TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHEAST, AT LEAST IN THE NEAR-
TERM. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
FORECAST TRACK THROUGH TAU 72. THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST FOR THIS
PERIOD LIES CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS JTWC
FORECAST.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, STORM MOTION IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AS A
DEVELOPING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH BEGINS WEAKENING THE STEERING RIDGE.
FUTHER INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
REMAIN FAVORABLE, PARTICULARLY WITH POLEWARD OUTFLOW POTENTIAL
IMPROVING AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. DETERMINISTIC
AND ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED
RANGE, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

[Yellow Evan]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 06 JUL 2015 Time : 030000 UTC
Lat : 11:51:02 N Lon : 159:02:44 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.5 / 994.3mb/ 55.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.5 3.9 5.1

[Yellow Evan]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 06 JUL 2015 Time : 070000 UTC
Lat : 12:02:52 N Lon : 158:38:35 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.7 / 975.3mb/ 82.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.7 5.2 6.1

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 29 km

Center Temp : -8.4C Cloud Region Temp : -72.7C

Scene Type : EYE

[Yellow Evan]

TPPN13 PGTW 060925

A. TYPHOON 11W (NANGKA)

B. 06/0832Z

C. 11.86N

D. 158.31E

E. FOUR/MTSAT

F. T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. 30NM OW EYE SURROUNDED BY
LG YIELDS AN E# OF 5.0. ADDED .5 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT TO YIELD A
DT OF 5.5. PT AND MET YIELD A 4.5. DBO PT AND MET.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
06/0350Z 11.82N 159.08E MMHS
06/0351Z 11.65N 159.22E SSMI
06/0511Z 11.68N 158.97E SSMS
06/0636Z 11.78N 158.62E GPMI
06/0658Z 11.77N 158.65E SSMS


UEHARA

[Yellow Evan]

TXPQ27 KNES 060922
TCSWNP

A. 11W (NANGKA)

B. 06/0832Z

C. 11.9N

D. 158.3E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T5.0/5.0/D2.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/AMSU/SSMI/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED IN LIGHT GRAY FOR AN EYE NUMBER OF 5.0
WITH AN OFF WHITE EYE AND WHITE RING GIVING A +.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT YIELDING
A FINAL DT OF 5.5. MET IS 4.5 BASED ON RAPID DEVELOPMENT COMPARED TO
24 HOURS AGO. PT IS 4.5. FT IS BASED ON RAPID INTENSIFICATION WITH
AN AVERAGE 6 HOUR T-NO OF 5.0 ALLOWING THE 6 AND 12 HOUR FT RULES TO
BE BROKEN.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

06/0350Z 11.9N 159.0E AMSU
06/0351Z 11.9N 158.9E SSMI
06/0511Z 11.7N 158.9E SSMIS
06/0658Z 11.8N 158.6E SSMIS


...LIDDICK

[Yellow Evan]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 06 JUL 2015 Time : 090000 UTC
Lat : 11:51:02 N Lon : 158:21:01 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.3 / 964.0mb/ 97.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.3 5.4 6.2

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 31 km

Center Temp : -1.2C Cloud Region Temp : -71.2C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.3T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[xtyphooncyclonex]

STS 1511 (NANGKA)
Issued at 10:05 UTC, 6 July 2015

<Analyses at 06/09 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N11°55'(11.9°)
E158°20'(158.3°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25km/h(14kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL60km(30NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more E280km(150NM)
W220km(120NM)

<Forecast for 06/21 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N12°50'(12.8°)
E155°50'(155.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL170km(90NM)

<Forecast for 07/09 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N13°50'(13.8°)
E153°50'(153.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
Storm warning area ALL240km(130NM)

<Forecast for 08/06 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N16°10'(16.2°)
E151°00'(151.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area ALL370km(200NM)

<Forecast for 09/06 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N18°55'(18.9°)
E147°10'(147.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 940hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(90kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65m/s(130kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)
Storm warning area ALL520km(280NM)

[cycloneye]

JMA upgrades to Typhoon.

TY 1511 (NANGKA)
Issued at 13:05 UTC, 6 July 2015
<Analyses at 06/12 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N12°10'(12.2°)
E157°50'(157.8°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL90km(50NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more E280km(150NM)
W220km(120NM)

<Forecast for 07/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N14°00'(14.0°)
E153°20'(153.3°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
Storm warning area ALL240km(130NM)

<Forecast for 08/12 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N16°30'(16.5°)
E149°35'(149.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 945hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area ALL390km(210NM)

<Forecast for 09/12 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N18°40'(18.7°)
E146°00'(146.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 940hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(90kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65m/s(130kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area ALL430km(230NM)

[xtyphooncyclonex]

11W NANGKA 150706 1200 12.2N 157.7E WPAC 80 963

[cycloneye]

WDPN33 PGTW 061500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 11W (NANGKA) WARNING NR 13//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 11W (NANGKA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 242 NM NORTHWEST
OF UJELANG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON RECENT ENHANCED IR (EIR)
IMAGERY SHOWING A 25 NM EYE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY HAS
BEEN RAISED TO 80 KNOTS AS THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL
AGENCIES HAVE RISEN WITH PGTW AND RJTD AT 4.5 AND KNES AT 5.0. WHILE
THE EIR LOOP AND A 061043Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW SOME
WEAKENING ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LLCC, UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS ALMOST RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW TO MODERATE VWS. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THE VWS IS NORTHWESTERLY, WHICH COULD BE CAUSING THE
PRESSURE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. TY 11W IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A STR.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 11W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING TO THE NORTHWEST UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE STR EXTENSION THROUGH TAU 72. THE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, WITH TY
NANGKA PEAKING AT 110 KNOTS BY TAU 48. BEYOND THAT, EXPECT THE
SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS PEAK INTENSITY AS LOWER OHC AND SOME INCREASE
IN VWS OFFSETS VERY GOOD OUTFLOW DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, TY 11W WILL SLOW AS THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH WEAKENS THE STR EXTENSION, CREATING A WEAKER
STEERING ENVIRONMENT. INTENSIFICATION WILL BE MARGINAL, IF ANY, AS
THE SSTS AND OHC VALUES DECREASE POLEWARD OF 19 NORTH AND THERE IS
SOME INCREASE IN VWS. THESE WILL BE OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72
WITH THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST LAID CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS. AS SUCH, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ33 PGUM 061452
TCPPQ3

BULLETIN
TYPHOON NANGKA (11W) ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP112015
200 AM CHST TUE JUL 7 2015

...NANGKA HEADING WEST-NORTHWEST AND INTENSIFYING...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NO CHANGES.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.4N 157.1E

ABOUT 385 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF POHNPEI
ABOUT 490 MILES NORTHEAST OF CHUUK
ABOUT 785 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 830 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN
ABOUT 835 MILES EAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON NANGKA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 12.4 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 157.1 DEGREES EAST.
NANGKA CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 13 MPH BUT IS
EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
FORWARD SPEED. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK TAKES NANGKA TO THE
NORTHERN CNMI AROUND THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 90 MPH. TYPHOON FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES FROM THE CENTER...WHILE TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 110 MILES FROM THE CENTER.
TYPHOON NANGKA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 AM LATER THIS MORNING.

$$

W. AYDLETT

[euro6208]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 06 JUL 2015 Time : 143000 UTC
Lat : 12:31:15 N Lon : 157:14:45 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.7 / 956.6mb/107.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.7 5.3 5.3

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 35 km

Center Temp : +14.0C Cloud Region Temp : -66.4C

Scene Type : LARGE EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 90km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 20.4 degrees

[euro6208]

Looks to be rapidly intensifying...