WPAC: BAVI - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

Updated BT upgrades 03W!

03W THREE 150311 0600 6.9N 169.9E WPAC 20 1007

[euro6208]

TPPN10 PGTW 111241

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 97W (SE OF KWAJALEIN)

B. 11/1132Z

C. 7.00N

D. 168.30E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T2.0/2.0 STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .40 ON LOG10
SPIRAL, YIELDING A DT OF 2.5. PT YIELDS A 2.0, WHILE MET IS
UNAVAILABLE. DBO PT, AS MET IS NOT CLEAR CUT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


CHAPPOTIN

[euro6208]

WTPN31 PGTW 111500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z --- NEAR 7.2N 168.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 7.2N 168.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 7.8N 166.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 8.4N 163.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 9.3N 160.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 10.6N 157.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 12.8N 151.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 14.0N 146.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 14.8N 141.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
111500Z POSITION NEAR 7.4N 167.6E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 92 NM
SOUTH OF KWAJALEIN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS 12
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z, 120300Z, 120900Z AND 121500Z.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

GFS continues to bring this down to 960's to 990 mb through the rota channel...

[euro6208]

Can someone change the title of the thread please...NWS in agreement with JTWC has now upgraded to TD 03W...

[cycloneye]

JMA upgrades to TS BAVI

TS 1503 (BAVI)
Issued at 18:55 UTC, 11 March 2015
<Analyses at 11/18 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N7°20'(7.3°)
E168°05'(168.1°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 996hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more N390km(210NM)
S280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 12/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N9°50'(9.8°)
E162°30'(162.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30km/h(15kt)
Central pressure 994hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)

<Forecast for 13/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N11°40'(11.7°)
E155°10'(155.2°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 35km/h(19kt)
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)

<Forecast for 14/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N13°05'(13.1°)
E148°55'(148.9°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30km/h(16kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)

[cycloneye]

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ81 PGUM 112335
HLSPQ1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
935 AM CHST THU MAR 12 2015

...TROPICAL STORM BAVI (03W) MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN MARSHALL
ISLANDS...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE ON AILINGLAPLAP...UJAE...AND ENEWETAK ATOLLS OF THE
MARSHALL ISLANDS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR UJAE AND ENEWETAK OF
THE WESTERN MARSHALL ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AILINGLAPLAP OF THE
WESTERN MARSHALL ISLANDS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 700 AM CHST THURSDAY...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM
BAVI WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 7.3 DEGREES NORTH...AND LONGITUDE
166.9 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS

ABOUT 135 MILES WEST OF AILINGLAPLAP
ABOUT 115 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KWAJALEIN
ABOUT 155 MILES SOUTHEAST OF UJAE
ABOUT 415 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ENEWETAK
ABOUT 295 MILES WEST OF MAJURO
ABOUT 300 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF KOSRAE AND
ABOUT 1560 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM

TROPICAL STORM BAVI IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AT 8 MPH.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...

TROPICAL STORM BAVI WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM AILINGLAPLAP
ATOLL AND IS NEAR ITS CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH OF KWAJALEIN. TS
BAVI WILL PASS ABOUT 45 MILES SOUTHWEST OF UJAE ATOLL THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND ABOUT 140 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ENEWETAK ATOLL FRIDAY
MORNING. A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED FOR TS BAVI OVER THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. TS BAVI COULD BECOME A TYPHOON BY SATURDAY.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

...UJAE AND ENEWETAK...
WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. COMBINED SEAS WILL BUILD TO 14 TO 18 FEET DURING THE
PASSAGE OF TS BAVI. DANGEROUS SURF OF 12 TO 15 FEET IS EXPECTED
ALONG EXPOSED EAST FACING REEFS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. 1 TO 2 FEET
OF INUNDATION IS POSSIBLE ON EASTERN EXPOSURES. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE TO 10 TO 14 FEET BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL SEAS SUBSIDE...PERHAPS BY THIS WEEKEND.
SWIMMERS AND SURFERS SHOULD STAY OUT OF THE WATER. ALSO...ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.



...FOR AILINGLAPLAP...
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 45 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE TODAY. WINDS DECREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
STRONGER GUSTS ON FRIDAY. COMBINED SEAS WILL BE IN A RANGE OF 11 TO
14 FEET TODAY AND SHOULD SUBSIDE TO 9 TO 12 FEET BY FRIDAY.
DANGEROUS SURF OF 12 TO 15 FEET IS EXPECTED ALONG EXPOSED EAST
FACING REEFS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. 1 TO 2 FEET OF INUNDATION IS
POSSIBLE ON EASTERN EXPOSURES. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT
UNTIL SEAS SUBSIDE...PERHAPS BY THIS WEEKEND. SWIMMERS AND SURFERS
SHOULD STAY OUT OF THE WATER. RIP CURRENTS WILL BE LIFE THREATENING.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BY
SATURDAY.


..NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ISSUANCE OF THIS LOCAL STATEMENT BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE WILL BE AT 300 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

$$

GUARD/KLEESCHULTE

[euro6208]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 11 MAR 2015 Time : 233000 UTC
Lat : 7:26:50 N Lon : 166:29:25 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.7 /1002.3mb/ 39.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.4 2.3 2.3

Center Temp : -31.5C Cloud Region Temp : -43.1C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.29 ARC in LT GRAY
Maximum CURVED BAND with 0.56 ARC in LT GRAY
at Lat: 6:50:24 N Lon: 166:17:23 E

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : FLAG

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : N/A
- Environmental MSLP : 1005mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 26.5 degrees

[euro6208]

NAVGEM passes this south of Guam as a typhoon...

CMC weaker but agrees with NAVGEM on passing this south of us...

EURO with a strong tropical storm passing through the Rota Channel

GFS says a typhoon in 36 hours and track is further north near Saipan

Warm enough for some modest strengthening...

I can't remember ever a storm for Guam and the Marianas in March...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

JMA has it much closer to Guam, just a tad north of Ritidian Point and Andersen Air Force Base

[euro6208]

Remarkable...

Slight shift south bringing it over Guam...Peak just shy of Typhoon...

JMA has it much closer to Guam, just a tad north of Ritidian Point and Andersen Air Force Base

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 120300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 03W (BAVI) WARNING NR
03//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W (BAVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 111 NM
SOUTHWEST OF KWAJALEIN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY (MSI) CONTINUES TO
DEPICT DEEPENED CONVECTION WITH FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). AN 112252Z METOP-
B SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO REVEALS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING
INTO THE LLCC. AN 112251Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A 30 TO 35 KNOT
CIRCULATION WITH PREDOMINANT GALE FORCE WINDS ON THE NORTHERN SEMI-
CIRCLE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI, ASCAT IMAGE, AND
AGENCY SATELLITE FIXES WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM PGTW AND CURRENT
STRUCTURE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TS 03W REMAINS IN A
MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (10 TO 20 KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. TS 03W IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS BAVI WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
DOMINANT STEERING STR. MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST, ALLOWING TS BAVI TO MODERATELY INTENSIFY LEADING TO A
PEAK INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS BY TAU 72.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 03W IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN DUE TO
MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DECREASED OCEAN HEAT CONTENT.
ADDITIONALLY, INCREASING VWS WILL FURTHER IMPACT THE SYSTEM.
AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS OVERALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

Kwajalein located about 100 miles north of the center is reporting sustained winds of 32 mph gusting to 41 mph and 998 mb...

Over 24 hours already this area has wind gust in excess of 35 mph...

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 120258
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BAVI (03W) ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP032015
200 PM CHST THU MAR 12 2015

...TROPICAL STORM BAVI STILL MOVING THROUGH THE MARSHALL ISLANDS...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS CANCELLED FOR AILINGLAPLAP ATOLLIN THE
WESTERN MARSHALL ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR UJAE AND ENEWETAK IN
THE WESTERN MARSHALL ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...7.3N 166.1E

ABOUT 190 MILES WEST OF AILINGLAPLAP
ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTHWEST OF KWAJALIEN
ABOUT 130 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF UJAE
ABOUT 380 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ENEWETAK
ABOUT 350 MILES WEST OF MAJURO
ABOUT 255 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF KOSRAE
ABOUT 540 MILES EAST OF POHNPEI AND
ABOUT 1510 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...280 DEGREES AT 8 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BAVI (03W)
WAS NEAR LATITUDE 7.3 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 166.1 EAST. THE TROPICAL
STORM WAS MOVING WEST AT 8 MPH. BAVI IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AND APPROACH THE SOUTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS BY SUNDAY
OR MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 40 MPH. THE TROPICAL STORM IS
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AND COULD BECOME A TYPHOON OVER THE
WEEKEND.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT IN TERMEDIATE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL STORM BAVI WILL BE
ISSUED AT 500 PM THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED
ADVISORY AT 800 PM THIS EVENING.

$$

KLEESCHULTE/GUARD

[euro6208]

Excellent discussion on Bavi...

http://www.westernpacificweather.com/20 ... s-fire-up/

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ81 PGUM 120528
HLSPQ1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
315 PM CHST THU MAR 12 2015

...TROPICAL STORM BAVI (03W) MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN MARSHALL
ISLANDS...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE ON AILINGLAPLAP...UJAE...AND ENEWETAK ATOLLS OF THE
MARSHALL ISLANDS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS CANCELLED FOR AILINGLAPLAP OF THE
WESTERN MARSHALL ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR UJAE AND ENEWETAK OF
THE WESTERN MARSHALL ISLANDS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 100 PM CHST THURSDAY...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM
BAVI WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 7.3 DEGREES NORTH...AND LONGITUDE
166.1 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS

ABOUT 190 MILES WEST OF AILINGLAPLAP
ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KWAJALEIN
ABOUT 130 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF UJAE
ABOUT 380 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ENEWETAK
ABOUT 350 MILES WEST OF MAJURO
ABOUT 255 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF KOSRAE
ABOUT 540 MILES EAST OF POHNPEI AND
ABOUT 1510 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM

TROPICAL STORM BAVI IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AT 8 MPH.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM BAVI WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM AILINGLAPLAP
ATOLL AND IS NEAR ITS CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH OF KWAJALEIN. TS
BAVI WILL PASS ABOUT 45 MILES SOUTHWEST OF UJAE ATOLL THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND ABOUT 140 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ENEWETAK ATOLL FRIDAY
MORNING. A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED FOR TS BAVI OVER THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. TS BAVI COULD BECOME A TYPHOON BY SATURDAY.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

...UJAE...
WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT. COMBINED SEAS WILL BUILD TO 14 TO 18 FEET DURING THE
PASSAGE OF TS BAVI. DANGEROUS SURF OF 12 TO 15 FEET IS EXPECTED
ALONG EXPOSED EAST FACING REEFS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. 1 TO 2 FEET
OF INUNDATION IS POSSIBLE ON EASTERN EXPOSURES. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE TO 10 TO 14 FEET BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL SEAS SUBSIDE...PERHAPS BY THIS WEEKEND.
SWIMMERS AND SURFERS SHOULD STAY OUT OF THE WATER. ALSO...ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

...ENEWETAK...
WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY.
COMBINED SEAS WILL BUILD TO 14 TO 18 FEET DURING THE PASSAGE OF TS
BAVI. DANGEROUS SURF OF 12 TO 15 FEET IS EXPECTED ALONG EXPOSED EAST
FACING REEFS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. 1 TO 2 FEET OF INUNDATION IS
POSSIBLE ON EASTERN EXPOSURES. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO 10 TO
14 FEET BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL
SEAS SUBSIDE...PERHAPS BY THIS WEEKEND. SWIMMERS AND SURFERS SHOULD
STAY OUT OF THE WATER. ALSO...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

...AILINGLAPLAP...
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH WITH
OCCASIONAL STRONGER GUSTS ON FRIDAY. COMBINED SEAS WILL BE IN A
RANGE OF 9 TO 11 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD SUBSIDE TO 8 TO 10
FEET BY FRIDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE. DANGEROUS SURF OF 10 TO
12 FEET IS EXPECTED ALONG EXPOSED EAST FACING REEFS THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL SEAS SUBSIDE...
PERHAPS BY THIS WEEKEND. SWIMMERS AND SURFERS SHOULD STAY OUT OF THE
WATER. RIP CURRENTS WILL BE LIFE THREATENING. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY.


..NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ISSUANCE OF THIS LOCAL STATEMENT BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE WILL BE AT 900 PM THIS EVENING.

$$

KLEESCHULTE/EDSON

[euro6208]

Exposed LLC likely due to some moderate easterly shear ...

[euro6208]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 12 MAR 2015 Time : 073000 UTC
Lat : 7:20:06 N Lon : 165:13:05 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.3 /1003.0mb/ 33.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.3 2.7 3.1

Center Temp : -20.7C Cloud Region Temp : -29.8C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.79 ARC in DK GRAY

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : N/A
- Environmental MSLP : 1005mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 25.1 degrees

[euro6208]

Still alot of uncertainty about this becoming a typhoon...JTWC maxes out just under typhoon strength...SST's is enough but shear will be the ultimate player...