ATL: 90L - ERIKA Remnants - Models

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Steve H.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#2401 Postby Steve H. » Fri Aug 28, 2015 11:13 am

How can this 11 am public advisory be right? It doesn't follow the track! I'm confused :roll:

At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was
located near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 69.4 West. Erika is
moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next 48 hours. On
the forecast track, the center of Erika will move over the Dominican
Republic this afternoon, move near the Turks and Caicos Islands
tonight, and move near the central and northwestern Bahamas Saturday
and Saturday night.
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#2402 Postby deltadog03 » Fri Aug 28, 2015 11:17 am

I think it might be that time......EURO might bring the nail to the coffin..
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#2403 Postby deltadog03 » Fri Aug 28, 2015 11:20 am

yes it did....I will have a new map later after the doc comes in, but its not going to be much to look at. lol Maybe it will give us some rain, we do need it!
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#2404 Postby bamajammer4eva » Fri Aug 28, 2015 11:23 am

Seems No model has been right so far. Maybe that will change today with the GFS killing her off.
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#2405 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Fri Aug 28, 2015 11:25 am

The rainfall estimates scream there is gonna be a heck of an easterly fetch for most of the FL east coast. Looks like 5-10 inches.
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#2406 Postby Stormcenter » Fri Aug 28, 2015 11:27 am

The models have done such a poor job with Erika how can anyone put any weight on what their next runs will show? I believe we should just let this all play out and quit buying into every computer model run. I don't care if this weakened into just a wave it still would concern me. IMO
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Re:

#2407 Postby tolakram » Fri Aug 28, 2015 11:29 am

Stormcenter wrote:The models have done such a poor job with Erika how can anyone put any weight on what their next runs will show? I believe we should just let this all play out and quit buying into every computer model run. I don't care if this weakened into just a wave it still would concern me. IMO


Who's buying it? Besides, the GFS is free!

Still out there.

Image

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Re:

#2408 Postby AdamFirst » Fri Aug 28, 2015 11:29 am

Stormcenter wrote:The models have done such a poor job with Erika how can anyone put any weight on what their next runs will show? I believe we should just let this all play out and quit buying into every computer model run. I don't care if this weakened into just a wave it still would concern me. IMO


It needs to clear Hispaniola first. That's been the wild card from the jump.
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Re: Re:

#2409 Postby Stormcenter » Fri Aug 28, 2015 11:29 am

:lol:



tolakram wrote:
Stormcenter wrote:The models have done such a poor job with Erika how can anyone put any weight on what their next runs will show? I believe we should just let this all play out and quit buying into every computer model run. I don't care if this weakened into just a wave it still would concern me. IMO


Who's buying it? Besides, the GFS is free!

Still out there.

Image

Image





tolakram wrote:
Stormcenter wrote:The models have done such a poor job with Erika how can anyone put any weight on what their next runs will show? I believe we should just let this all play out and quit buying into every computer model run. I don't care if this weakened into just a wave it still would concern me. IMO


Who's buying it? Besides, the GFS is free!

Still out there.

Image

Image
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#2410 Postby tgenius » Fri Aug 28, 2015 11:30 am

So whats the chance that at 5pm its marked as dissipated?
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#2411 Postby Comradez » Fri Aug 28, 2015 11:30 am

Steve H. wrote:How can this 11 am public advisory be right? It doesn't follow the track! I'm confused :roll:

At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was
located near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 69.4 West. Erika is
moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next 48 hours. On
the forecast track, the center of Erika will move over the Dominican
Republic this afternoon, move near the Turks and Caicos Islands
tonight, and move near the central and northwestern Bahamas Saturday
and Saturday night.


Hahaha, the NHC is confused...

So is the GFS...

Well played Erika.

The latest center fix from recon has the center at about 16.8 North, 70.2 W.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#2412 Postby tolakram » Fri Aug 28, 2015 11:30 am

12Z HWRF running and it puts it due NW right across DR, which I think is wrong but we'll see.

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#2413 Postby gatorcane » Fri Aug 28, 2015 11:33 am

12Z GEM continues to show a T.S into SE Florida quickly ramping it up over the FL Straits and continues to intensify as it moves north over Florida:

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#2414 Postby BigB0882 » Fri Aug 28, 2015 11:39 am

I feel like model watching is just pointless, at least we don't have to worry about a strong storm. So even if it surprises everyone and defies the models and hits Texas, it will very likely just be a rain event so no big deal.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#2415 Postby tolakram » Fri Aug 28, 2015 11:39 am

HWRF

Image
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Re: Re:

#2416 Postby fox13weather » Fri Aug 28, 2015 11:44 am

tolakram wrote:
Stormcenter wrote:The models have done such a poor job with Erika how can anyone put any weight on what their next runs will show? I believe we should just let this all play out and quit buying into every computer model run. I don't care if this weakened into just a wave it still would concern me. IMO


Who's buying it? Besides, the GFS is free!

Still out there.

Image

Image



Those are accumulated rain totals from now till Septemeber 3rd, which is not considered unusual - daytime convection can easily add up to those amounts in a week.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#2417 Postby tolakram » Fri Aug 28, 2015 11:47 am

Image
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#2418 Postby gatorcane » Fri Aug 28, 2015 11:48 am

:uarrow: HWRF shows zilch and is much weaker than the 06Z. Only model that keeps this alive now once clearing Hispaniola is the CMC which is not to be trusted anyway since it has a genesis bias. I would think the next ECMWF will probably drop it or show something weak. We shall see.

These models continue to bust big time in Erika.
Last edited by gatorcane on Fri Aug 28, 2015 11:50 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#2419 Postby Evil Jeremy » Fri Aug 28, 2015 11:49 am

tolakram wrote:http://imageshack.com/a/img661/4757/qMclZZ.png


About two degrees west, one degree north, and four millibars weaker than the last run.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#2420 Postby PTrackerLA » Fri Aug 28, 2015 11:54 am

Well all I have to say is, NEXT. #ElNino
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