SPAC: PAM - Post-Tropical

[Alyono]

I'd go as high as 150 kts now

[1900hurricane]

I'd still like the eye to break into the positives, but the strengthening trend cannot be denied. Pam looks well on her way to clearing out her eye finally, and perhaps at the worst possible time for Vanavatu. Anyone have a good estimate on when it'll be nearest/over Port Vila? I'm out and about so I can't make a good guess right now.

[Alyono]

its about 100 miles away now, so we're looking at 6 to 9 hours

[Yellow Evan]

I'd still like the eye to break into the positives, but the strengthening trend cannot be denied. Pam looks well on her way to clearing out her eye finally, and perhaps at the worst possible time for Vanavatu. Anyone have a good estimate on when it'll be nearest/over Port Vila? I'm out and about so I can't make a good guess right now.

It might be in the positives. ADT center fix is off.

[gatorcane]

Pam looks to be doing what the GFS thought could happen and that is some serious RI

[euro6208]

Never seen a SPAC storm get this much attention. GFS's hype really did the trick.

[euro6208]

I'm thinking at least 155 knots peak intensity which would tie it for strongest cyclone in the SPAC...

[mrbagyo]

Looks god damn scary now.
Pam could easily get to 160 if her eye continious to warm to about 10+

[Yellow Evan]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 13 MAR 2015 Time : 023000 UTC
Lat : 16:16:25 S Lon : 169:02:24 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.0 / 903.2mb/140.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.0 7.2 7.2

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -16.9C Cloud Region Temp : -83.4C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 170km
- Environmental MSLP : 994mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 33.5 degrees

[Yellow Evan]

Looking at some webcams, people are out on the streets right now. Wow.

[1900hurricane]

I'm impressed with how cold the tops are staying during the day. ADT is still giving a CDO average below -83*C. Eye is really starting to warm too. It's becoming clear to me that this is headed for an intensity of 155 kt or perhaps even greater.

[Alyono]

Looking at some webcams, people are out on the streets right now. Wow.

if they do not get in soon, they will be dead

[Yellow Evan]

Cameras out in Vanuatu, so who knows what is happening now.

[Yellow Evan]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 13 MAR 2015 Time : 033000 UTC
Lat : 16:32:12 S Lon : 168:56:03 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.1 / 900.1mb/143.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.1 7.6 7.6

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 20 km

Center Temp : +7.2C Cloud Region Temp : -83.9C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 170km
- Environmental MSLP : 994mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 33.6 degrees

7.6 ADT! Near Haiyan 7.8 and ODiel's 7.7

[Yellow Evan]

2015MAR13 023200 7.3 893.8 149.0 7.3 7.4 7.4 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -16.89 -83.40 EYE -99 IR N/A -16.27 -169.04 COMBO MTSAT2 33.5

7.4 from FMS ADT and 7.3 overall. Hence, I'd go 155 right now.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Worrying to see Pam becoming better defined as it closes in on Efate. Given the recent warming of the eye and cooling of eyewall convection,
I'd go with 150kt, and this may be conservative. The pressure is almost undoubtedly under 900mb, making it one of the strongest South Pacific cyclones on record.

[Yellow Evan]

Eye looks WMG to me. Likely T7.5 worthy and maybe will top T8.0.

[Crostorm]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 13 MAR 2015 Time : 061500 UTC
Lat : 16:46:24 S Lon : 168:43:36 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.4 / 890.5mb/152.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.4 7.4 7.4

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 20 km

Center Temp : +0.1C Cloud Region Temp : -83.9C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 170km
- Environmental MSLP : 994mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 33.5 degrees

[euro6208]

TXPS21 KNES 130614
TCSWSP

A. 17P (PAM)

B. 13/0532Z

C. 16.7S

D. 168.7E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T7.5/7.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...OW EYE IS EMBEDDED IN...AND SURROUNDED BY...CDG RESULTING IN
A DT OF 7.5 AFTER 0.5 IS ADDED AS AN EYE ADJUSTMENT. PT AND MET AGREE. FT
IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TURK

[euro6208]

17P PAM 150313 0600 16.9S 168.9E SHEM 145 914