CPAC: ELA - Post-Tropical

#21 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jul 04, 2015 2:09 pm

EP, 96, 2015070418, , BEST, 0, 63N, 1237W, 20, 1005, LO

#22 Postby **Kingarabian** » Sat Jul 04, 2015 2:15 pm

ECMWF:

GFS:

#23 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Sat Jul 04, 2015 2:34 pm

As for intensity, decent chance this is at least a Cat 1. Could be stronger.

#24 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Sat Jul 04, 2015 2:35 pm

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP962015 07/04/15 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 24 27 30 33 39 46 52 55 57 58 56 52
V (KT) LAND 20 24 27 30 33 39 46 52 55 57 58 56 52
V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 21 22 23 26 29 33 38 43 48 52 53
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 26 26 22 23 26 22 25 19 21 10 6 10 21
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 4 3 0 2 0 -1 -4 -5 -2 -4 -3
SHEAR DIR 61 52 46 52 52 44 47 40 34 29 343 291 279
SST (C) 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.0 28.9 28.3 27.6 27.0 26.3 25.8
POT. INT. (KT) 157 154 154 155 155 157 155 155 149 142 136 128 123
200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.6 -52.0 -52.3 -52.2 -52.1 -52.3 -52.0 -52.3 -52.0 -52.3 -51.8 -52.2
TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 5 5 4 4
700-500 MB RH 83 82 83 84 83 85 86 85 84 81 78 78 75
MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 39 39 43 48 56 68 74 90 77 69 65 72 56
200 MB DIV 108 123 115 122 132 133 114 91 67 82 74 68 37
700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -1 -5 -9 -14 -11 -5 -6 1 2
LAND (KM) 2360 2404 2448 2486 2517 2565 2621 2677 2377 2064 1736 1416 1102
LAT (DEG N) 6.3 6.4 6.4 6.6 6.8 7.4 8.4 9.6 11.1 12.7 14.3 15.8 17.3
LONG(DEG W) 123.7 124.4 125.1 125.8 126.6 128.1 130.0 132.1 134.4 136.8 139.4 142.0 144.6
STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 7 8 8 9 11 13 14 15 15 15 14
HEAT CONTENT 53 56 53 46 38 22 16 13 12 24 0 1 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 580 (MEAN=581)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0)

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 15. 23. 30. 34. 36. 37. 38.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 0. -1. -4. -7. -8. -8. -6. -3. -1. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 13. 14. 15. 14. 12. 9.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -12. -14. -16. -17. -17. -17.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7.
700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -2. -3.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 10. 13. 19. 26. 32. 35. 37. 38. 36. 32.

** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962015 INVEST 07/04/15 18 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 49.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6
D200 (10**7s-1) : 120.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 87.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%)

#25 Postby **Kingarabian** » Sat Jul 04, 2015 4:15 pm

#26 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Sat Jul 04, 2015 5:24 pm

Wow, not bad. Ahead of schedule.

It's got that look to it I feel like I say with every storm now.

#27 Postby **Kingarabian** » Sat Jul 04, 2015 5:39 pm

18z GFS is further south.

#28 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jul 04, 2015 6:41 pm

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure centered about 1350 miles southwest of Cabo San
Lucas Mexico continue to show signs of organization. Environmental
conditions are conducive for gradual development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form early next week while the system moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

#29 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jul 04, 2015 7:49 pm

The latest trend has been to increase the intensity.

EP, 96, 2015070500, , BEST, 0, 71N, 1221W, 25, 1005, LO

#30 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Sat Jul 04, 2015 9:06 pm

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP962015 07/05/15 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 39 50 60 67 75 77 77 74 71
V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 39 50 60 67 75 77 77 74 71
V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 31 32 36 41 48 55 61 63 61 57
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 18 15 13 13 8 10 4 4 3 7 4 9 18
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 1 0 0 3 6 0 0 -3 -5 -5 -4
SHEAR DIR 17 2 359 14 11 39 64 71 105 150 178 247 255
SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.2 27.3 26.9 26.2 26.0 26.0
POT. INT. (KT) 157 157 157 156 156 156 156 149 140 135 128 125 125
200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.8 -52.0 -51.8 -51.2 -52.1 -51.4 -52.1 -51.2 -52.0 -51.5 -51.9 -51.8
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 6 7 6 6 5 4 5 5
700-500 MB RH 82 82 82 79 79 81 80 80 79 78 79 75 70
MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 8 9 11 14 16 16 19 21 22 23 24
850 MB ENV VOR 31 38 37 43 45 53 61 61 73 78 85 83 93
200 MB DIV 131 124 127 136 163 128 95 76 92 86 78 42 11
700-850 TADV -4 -3 -2 -3 -6 -13 -11 -3 -1 0 2 4 7
LAND (KM) 2183 2223 2267 2307 2336 2412 2531 2384 2002 1623 1247 915 592
LAT (DEG N) 7.1 7.4 7.6 8.0 8.3 9.3 10.6 11.8 13.2 14.6 16.0 17.1 18.0
LONG(DEG W) 122.1 123.1 124.0 125.0 125.9 128.2 131.0 134.0 137.2 140.4 143.6 146.5 149.4
STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 10 10 11 14 15 16 17 17 16 15 14
HEAT CONTENT 17 36 49 47 42 23 14 12 22 1 4 0 1

FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 725 (MEAN=581)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.7 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0)

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 22. 27. 30. 32. 33. 33.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 8. 10. 10. 9. 6. 4.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -12. -15. -17. -17. -17. -17.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7.
700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 3. 8. 11. 10. 14. 18. 20. 21. 22.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -2. -3.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 14. 25. 35. 42. 50. 52. 52. 49. 46.

** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962015 INVEST 07/05/15 00 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 38.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4
D200 (10**7s-1) : 136.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 39.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 44% is 3.3 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%)

#31 Postby **Kingarabian** » Sat Jul 04, 2015 10:35 pm

Unimpressive tonight:

Hurricaneman · #32 Postby **Hurricaneman** » Sat Jul 04, 2015 11:09 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Unimpressive tonight:

Very typical of a large system in that it takes a while for consolidation before it can really develop. Maybe a DMAX can help it on its way

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#33 Postby **Kingarabian** » Sun Jul 05, 2015 12:02 am

00z GFS is stronger (cat 2) slightly more N.

#34 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Sun Jul 05, 2015 1:20 am

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure centered about 1400 miles southwest of Cabo San Lucas
Mexico have changed little in organization this evening. However,
environmental conditions remain conducive for gradual development,
and a tropical depression is likely to form early next week while
the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

#35 Postby **Kingarabian** » Sun Jul 05, 2015 1:42 am

00z Euro is weaker and much more south than 12z Euro. Grazes the big island has a TD rather than a minimal hurricane/strong TS.

I'm going to wait until we have a storm first; will be putting more weight on anything Euro related. Did a remarkable job with Ana last year, track wise.

GFDL/HWRF have been both inconsistent with intensity but both have been firm with it going well North of the islands.

#36 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Jul 05, 2015 6:59 am

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure centered about 1450 miles southwest of Cabo San Lucas,
Mexico have changed little in organization overnight. However,
environmental conditions remain conducive for gradual development,
and a tropical depression is expected to form by mid-week while
the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

#37 Postby **Kingarabian** » Sun Jul 05, 2015 1:31 pm

Euro and GFS keep it weak and north of the islands.

#38 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Jul 05, 2015 1:50 pm

EP, 96, 2015070518, , BEST, 0, 97N, 1265W, 25, 1006, LO

#39 Postby **Alyono** » Sun Jul 05, 2015 2:34 pm

seems to be bogus development ahead of the system in some of the models. Causing a northward bias in the tracks

#40 Postby **Kingarabian** » Sun Jul 05, 2015 2:43 pm

Alyono wrote:seems to be bogus development ahead of the system in some of the models. Causing a northward bias in the tracks

Well GFS and Euro no longer have a deep system and somehow have it going well north. Maybe the weakness is more significant than thought?

Because yesterday the runs were making more sense. Some models had it weaker thus more of a southern track, vice versa with other models.

CPAC: ELA - Post-Tropical

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