WPAC: NANGKA - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

TPPN13 PGTW 031831

A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (S OF WOTJE)

B. 03/1732Z

C. 9.63N

D. 170.53E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .45 WRAP YIELDS A DT OF 2.0. PT
AND MET AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
03/1435Z 9.57N 170.83E ATMS
03/1521Z 9.23N 171.28E MMHS


MARTINEZ

TXPQ27 KNES 031510
TCSWNP

A. 11W (NONAME)

B. 03/1432Z

C. 9.5N

D. 170.4E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...3/10 BANDING FOR DT=1.5. MET=1.0 WITH PT=1.5. FT IS
BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SALEMI

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

Latest Kwajalein radar...

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PMZ181-041100-
MAJURO-
500 AM CHST SAT JUL 4 2015

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W WAS FORMED NEAR 10N171E ABOUT 160 MILES
NORTH OF MAJURO. LATEST ASCAT SHOWS EAST WINDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH
NORTH OF CENTER AND SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH SOUTH OF THE
CENTER. DEEP CONVECTION IS FLARING UP NEAR AND NORTH OF CENTER. FOR
MORE INFORMATION ON 11W...READ ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE UNDER WMO HEADER WTPQ33 PGUM.

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ33 PGUM 031909
TCPPQ3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP112015
500 AM CHST SAT JUL 4 2015

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W PASSING NEAR WOTJE...

CHANGES THIS WARNING
--------------------
NONE

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR UTIRIK AND WOTJE
ATOLLS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 39 TO 73
MPH...ARE OCCURRING OR EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ENEWETAK...KWAJALEIN
AND UJAE ATOLLS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 39
TO 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 400 AM CHST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.6N 170.5E

ABOUT 25 MILES NORTHEAST OF WOTJE
ABOUT 120 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF UTIRIK
ABOUT 180 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MAJURO
ABOUT 195 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF KWAJALEIN
ABOUT 340 MILES EAST OF UJAE
ABOUT 565 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ENEWETAK
ABOUT 1760 MILES EAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 400 AM CHST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.6 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 170.5
DEGREES EAST. THE CENTER OF 11W IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG A WEST TO WEST-
NORTHWEST HEADING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 35 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION
11W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING OVER THE WEEKEND...POSSIBLY
BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM THIS AFTERNOON.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 AM THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY
AT 1100 AM.

$$

W. AYDLETT

[cycloneye]

WDPN31 PGTW 032100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (NANGKA)
WARNING NR 02//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (NANGKA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 148 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF KWAJALEIN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVERHEAD. A 031835Z SSMIS
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS DEVELOPING DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING
INTO THE SYSTEM CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 18Z
PGTW FIX POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 30 KTS BASED
ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH 5-15 KTS VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND IMPROVING OUTFLOW AS THE TROUGH LIFTS FROM THE NORTH
OF THE SYSTEM. TD 11W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WEST-NORTHWEST ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC
REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 11W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWEST ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 48. TRACK SPEEDS ARE
FORECASTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT AROUND 12 KTS. STEADY
INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED ALONG TRACK DUE TO FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS AS WELL AS WARM SSTS AND POSITIVE OHC VALUES. AFTER TAU
48 TD 11W IS EXPECTED TO TURN SLIGHTLY MORE POLEWARD AND BEGIN
TRACKING TO THE NORTHWEST. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A SMALL
COMPACT SYSTEM THROUGH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
C. TD 11W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THE NORTHWEST TRAJECTORY
THROUGH TAU 120. STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO REACH A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 85 KTS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE DYNAMIC PATTERN CURRENTLY
OBSERVED IN THE WESTERN PACIFIC, CLOSE ATTENTION SHOULD ALSO BE PAID
TO THE EVOLUTION OF TS 09W AND INVEST 98W.//
NNNN

[xtyphooncyclonex]

11W NANGKA 150704 0000 9.8N 169.7E WPAC 40 993

[xtyphooncyclonex]

WTPN33 PGTW 040300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (NANGKA) WARNING NR 003
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040000Z --- NEAR 9.8N 169.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.8N 169.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 10.2N 167.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 10.7N 165.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 11.2N 162.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 11.9N 160.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 13.7N 156.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 15.8N 152.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 18.4N 148.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
040300Z POSITION NEAR 9.9N 169.2E.
TROPICAL STORM 11W (NANGKA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 130 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF KWAJALEIN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
040000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040900Z, 041500Z, 042100Z AND
050300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 09W (CHAN-HOM) WARNINGS (WTPN31
PGTW)FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 10W (LINFA)
WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ33 PGUM 040720
TCPPQ3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA (11W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP112015
500 PM CHST SAT JUL 4 2015

...NANGKA CONTINUING TOWARDS ENEWETAK...

CHANGES THIS WARNING
--------------------
NO CHANGES.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ENEWETAK ATOLL. TYPHOON
CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR KWAJALEIN AND
UJAE ATOLLS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 39
TO 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CHST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.9N 168.9E

ABOUT 65 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF UTIRIK
ABOUT 135 MILES NORTHWEST OF WOTJE
ABOUT 170 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF KWAJALEIN
ABOUT 260 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF UJAE
ABOUT 305 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MAJURO
ABOUT 440 MILES EAST OF ENEWETAK
ABOUT 1640 MILES EAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 400 PM CHST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NANGKA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.9 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 168.9
DEGREES EAST. NANGKA IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH. NANGKA
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG A WEST-NORTHWEST HEADING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS TRACK
WILL BRING NANGKA NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF ENEWETAK SUNDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN 45 MPH. TROPICAL STORM NANGKA IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING OVER THE WEEKEND.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE THIS EVENING AT 800 PM FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY
AT 1100 PM.

$$

M. AYDLETT

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ33 PGUM 040941
TCPPQ3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA (11W) ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP112015
800 PM CHST SAT JUL 4 2015

...NANGKA CONTINUING TOWARDS ENEWETAK...

CHANGES THIS WARNING
--------------------
TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ENEWETAK ATOLL.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ENEWETAK ATOLL.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ENEWETAK ATOLL. TYPHOON
CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR KWAJALEIN AND
UJAE ATOLLS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 39
TO 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.0N 168.3E

ABOUT 105 MILES WEST OF UTIRIK
ABOUT 160 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF KWAJALEIN
ABOUT 170 MILES NORTHWEST OF WOTJE
ABOUT 230 MILES NORTHEAST OF UJAE
ABOUT 335 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MAJURO
ABOUT 400 MILES EAST OF ENEWETAK
ABOUT 1600 MILES EAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST...315 DEGREES AT 15 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NANGKA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.0 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 168.3 DEGREES
EAST. NANGKA IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH. NANGKA IS EXPECTED TO
TURN BACK AND CONTINUE ALONG A WEST-NORTHWEST HEADING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS TRACK WILL
BRING NANGKA NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF ENEWETAK SUNDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN 45 MPH. TROPICAL STORM NANGKA IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING OVER THE WEEKEND.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 1100 PM THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED
ADVISORY AT 200 AM EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

$$

W. AYDLETT

[xtyphooncyclonex]

11W NANGKA 150704 1200 11.3N 167.1E WPAC 50 985

[cycloneye]

WDPN33 PGTW 041500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 11W (NANGKA) WARNING NR
05//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 11W (NANGKA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 147 NM WEST OF
UTIRIK, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED EIR LOOP REVEALS GOOD BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A CLOUD
FILLED LLCC. A 041037Z AMSU SHOWS GOOD CONVECTION WITH THE DEEPEST
CONVECTION ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM AND A FORMATIVE
MICROWAVE EYE. THE 040945Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A FAIRLY SYMMETRIC
STRUCTURE WITH WINDS OF AT LEAST 45 KNOTS. THE POSITION AND
INTENSITY ARE BASED ON THE ABOVE MENTIONED SATELLITE IMAGES WITH
GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO BE
FAVORABLE WITH LOW VWS AND SEEMINGLY RADIAL OUTFLOW. TS 11W IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING NORTHWEST ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC
REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS NANGKA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWEST ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 36. AS THE STR BEGINS TO
BREAK DOWN AND TRACK TO THE EAST, EXPECT A POLEWARD SHIFT IN THE
TRACK OF THE STORM. OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, EXPECT TS NANGKA TO
RAPIDLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY TO TYPHOON STRENGTH WITH A STEADY
INCREASE IN INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 72 DUE TO THE ENVIRONMENT
REMAINING FAVORABLE.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, TS 11W WILL TAKE ON A MORE NORTHWEST TRACK AS
THE STR MOVES TO THE EAST, ALLOWING TS 11W TO GAIN LATITUDE. THE
UPPER LEVELS AT THIS TIME WILL SLIGHTLY IMPEDE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
SYSTEM, FORCING TS NANGKA TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY THROUGH THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST WHICH IS
LAID CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ83 PGUM 041739
HLSPQ3

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA (11W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
300 AM CHST SUN JUL 5 2015

...NANGKA INTENSIFYING AND CONTINUING TOWARD ENEWETAK...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE IN THE NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS...INCLUDING ENEWETAK
AND UJAE ATOLLS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TYPHOON WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ENEWETAK ATOLL. TYPHOON
CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR UJAE ATOLL. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE STILL POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 100 AM CHST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NANGKA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 11.4 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 166.4 EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT 170 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF UJAE
ABOUT 270 MILES EAST OF ENEWETAK
ABOUT 440 MILES NORTHWEST OF MAJURO

TROPICAL STORM NANGKA IS MOVING WEST AT 17 MPH WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 60 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA IS QUICKLY MOVING TO THE WEST AND PASSING TO
THE NORTH OF UJAE ATOLL. NANGKA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING TO
THE WEST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TROPICAL STORM NANGKA IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING TODAY AND MONDAY...AND IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A TYPHOON LATER THIS MORNING BEFORE IT PASSES
NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF ENEWETAK THIS AFTERNOON.

...ENEWETAK...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TYPHOON CONDITIONS INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 74 MPH ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT TRACK HAS TROPICAL STORM
NANGKA BECOMING A TYPHOON LATER THIS MORNING AND PASSING CLOSE TO
ENEWETAK THIS AFTERNOON. RESIDENTS NEED TO GO TO SHELTERS OR STURDY
STRUCTURES WHICH CAN WITHSTAND DAMAGING WINDS BEFORE WEATHER
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE LATER THIS MORNING. BE AWARE OF FALLING
PALM FRONDS AND COCONUTS AND OTHER FLYING DEBRIS CAUSED BY STRONG
WINDS. STAY OUT OF THE WATER SINCE SURF IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND
RIP CURRENTS WILL BE LIFE THREATENING. MAKE SURE TO HAVE ADEQUATE
FOOD AND WATER FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL SHOULD BE
POSTPONED UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED LATER ON MONDAY. FOLLOW
INSTRUCTIONS FROM YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.

...WIND INFORMATION...
DAMAGING NORTHWEST WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST AND INCREASE TO
BETWEEN 50 AND 60 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH DURING THE EVENING AND
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY TURNING TO THE SOUTHWEST
AND DECREASING TO BETWEEN 40 AND 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH LATER
MONDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK KEEPS TYPHOON FORCE WINDS
JUST NORTH OF ENEWETAK...BUT A SLIGHT SHIFT TO THE SOUTH WOULD BRING
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS TO THE ATOLL THIS EVENING.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FEET WILL BUILD TODAY AND ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK
BETWEEN 13 AND 18 FEET TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS SURF OF 9 TO 14 FEET WILL
BUILD TO DANGEROUS LEVELS OF 14 TO 20 FEET TONIGHT AS THE CENTER OF
NANGKA NEARS. SURF WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON.

COASTAL INUNDATION OF 2 TO 3 FEET IS EXPECTED ALONG NORTH AND EAST
FACING SHORES AS NANGKA APPROACHES.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY AS
NANGKA PASSES BY.

...UJAE...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THE CURRENT TRACK KEEPS DAMAGING WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM NANGKA
NORTH OF UJAE. HOWEVER...A SMALL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH COULD BRING
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO UJAE THIS MORNING. DO NOT ATTEMPT ANY
INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL UNTIL SEAS AND WINDS SUBSIDE. FOLLOW
INSTRUCTIONS FROM YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.

...WIND INFORMATION...
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND INCREASE TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH AROUND SUNRISE. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST
AND BEGIN TO SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
SEAS OF 9 TO 11 FEET WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS MORNING THEN SLOWLY
SUBSIDE TONIGHT. LARGE WAVES WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS SURF UP TO 14
FEET AND BETWEEN 1 AND 2 FEET OF COASTAL INUNDATION ALONG NORTH AND
WEST FACING SHORES THROUGH TODAY.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AROUND 900 AM CHST THIS MORNING...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

$$

W. AYDLETT

[euro6208]

EURO is stronger peaks it at 901mb after it hits the Islands...

[cycloneye]

[img]WDPN33 PGTW 050300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 11W (NANGKA) WARNING NR
07//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 11W (NANGKA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 136 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF ENEWETAK, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON MICROWAVE IMAGERY
AND ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM A 042311Z METOP-B PASS. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
ASCAT PASS AND DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM MULTIPLE
REPORTING AGENCIES. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
TIGHTLY-WRAPPED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION
FLARING TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. TS 11W LIES IN AN AREA
OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE
SYSTEM IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO MAJOR CHANGE TO FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 11W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE
CURRENT SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE THROUGH THE NEXT 72 HOURS, TURNING
GRADUALLY NORTHWESTWARD FROM ITS CURRENT WESTWARD TRACK AS THE
STEERING RIDGE REORIENTS. LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, INCREASING RADIAL
OUTFLOW, AND PASSAGE OVER VERY WARM WATER WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO
STEADILY INTENSIFY DURING THIS PERIOD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE FORECAST TRACK THROUGH TAU 72. THE
CURRENT TRACK FORECAST LIES CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
DURING THIS PERIOD.
C. IN THE TAU 96 THROUGH TAU 120 PERIOD, TS 11W IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE PERIPHERY. INTENSIFICATION SHOULD CONTINUE AS ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS REMAIN MOSTLY FAVORABLE, ALTHOUGH RESTRICTED POLEWARD
OUTFLOW MAY LIMIT THE INTENSIFICATION RATE AS REFLECTED IN THE
CURRENT FORECAST. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
IN THE EXTENDED RANGE, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE CURRENT TRACK
FORECAST.//[/img]

[Hurricaneman]

This one out of the 3 current tropical systems has the most potential as it has the best CDO, least shear, and a good to great enviornment in front of it heck it even has super typhoon potential and the models show this possibility well

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[euro6208]

WDPN33 PGTW 050900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 11W (NANGKA) WARNING
NR 08//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 11W (NANGKA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 66 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF ENEWETAK, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER, WITH A COMPACT AREA OF CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION.
A 050523Z SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE PASS REVEALS THE LOW LEVEL BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A WARM SPOT. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON MSI AND
THE NOTED MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS
CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM MULTIPLE
REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TS 11W LIES IN
AN AREA OF LOW (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND IMPROVING UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO MAJOR CHANGE TO FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 11W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING
RIDGE THROUGH THE NEXT 72 HOURS, VEERING GRADUALLY NORTHWESTWARD
FROM ITS CURRENT WESTWARD TRACK AS THE STEERING RIDGE REORIENTS.
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, INCREASING RADIAL OUTFLOW, AND PASSAGE
OVER VERY WARM WATER THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM
TO STEADILY INTENSIFY. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE FORECAST TRACK THROUGH TAU 72. THE CURRENT TRACK
FORECAST LIES CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS DURING THIS PERIOD.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN FIRMLY IN PLACE, ALLOWING TS 11W TO CONTINUE
TRACKING GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD. FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY
DUE TO CONTINUED FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. DETERMINISTIC
AND ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED
RANGE, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

NAVGEM runs this through the Marianas...




EURO agrees takes a 940's mb storm through the Marianas and peaks it at 920 mb southeast of Japan.

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ33 PGUM 050944
TCPPQ3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NANGKA (11W) ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP112015
800 PM CHST SUN JUL 5 2015

...TROPICAL STORM NANGKA JUST EAST OF ENEWETAK...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NO CHANGES.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ENEWETAK ATOLL. TYPHOON
CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...ARE EXPECTED
LATER TONIGHT.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.4N 162.9E

ABOUT 35 MILES EAST OF ENEWETAK
ABOUT 640 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF MAJURO
ABOUT 1230 MILES EAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...275 DEGREES AT 14 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NANGKA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.4 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 162.9 DEGREES
EAST. NANGKA CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE WEST AT 14 MPH AND IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE WESTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT THEN MAKE A SLIGHT TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST MONDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS
TRACK WILL BRING NANGKA NEAR ENEWETAK TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 60 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM
NANGKA IS EXPECTED TO RESUME A SLOW INTENSIFICATION OVERNIGHT...AND
POSSIBLY BECOME A TYPHOON ON MONDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 1100 PM THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED
ADVISORY AT 200 AM EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

$$

W. AYDLETT

[euro6208]

Nangka sure loves island hopping...Enewetak is the last stop before entering Micronesia...