WPAC: DOLPHIN - Post-Tropical

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Oh my God, 898 mb

[euro6208]

JMA



CMC takes this north of Guam



NAVGEM



EURO

[euro6208]

893 mb after raking Guam...

[cycloneye]

JMA upgrades to TD.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 04N 157E WEST SLOWLY.

[euro6208]

93W INVEST 150506 1200 4.5N 159.1E WPAC 20 1005

Centre still displaced east of the deepest convection

[euro6208]

000
WWPQ80 PGUM 061036
SPSPQ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
800 PM CHST WED MAY 6 2015

PMZ172-173-174-070100-
CHUUK-POHNPEI-KOSRAE-
800 PM CHST WED MAY 6 2015

...CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN POHNPEI STATE...

A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN POHNPEI STATE IS CENTERED NEAR 4.5 DEGREES
NORTH LATITUDE AND 158.5 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...WHICH IS ABOUT 200
MILES SOUTH OF POHNPEI AND ABOUT 350 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KOSRAE.
THIS LATEST POSITION SHOWS A SLOW DRIFT OF THIS SYSTEM TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST. AREAS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED AND ARE OCCURRING EAST AND SOUTH OF CHUUK
AND OVER MUCH OF POHNPEI AND KOSRAE STATES. THIS AREA IS NOW THE
SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW) ISSUED
BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER.

THE FUTURE DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF THIS DISTURBANCE WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED AND THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE IT WILL DEVELOP FURTHER IN THE
COMING DAYS. INITIALLY...KOSRAE AND POHNPEI MAY BE SUBJECT TO
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SOME GUSTY WINDS. IN THE OUTLOOK...
COMPUTER MODELS DIFFER IN THE DETAILS...BUT GENERALLY INDICATE THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE NORTH AND THEN NORTHWEST. CURRENTLY
WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE LIGHT AT 10 TO 20 MPH. HOWEVER...FURTHER
SOUTH BETWEEN THE EQUATOR AND 3N FROM 150E TO 160E...SHIP DATA AND
SATELLITE-DERIVED WINDS ARE INDICATING THAT A STRONG WESTERLY WIND
FETCH OF 15 TO 25 MPH IS OCCURRING. THIS IS IS LIKELY TO AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE AS WELL AS ENHANCE THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS AREA.

OVER THE OCEAN...SEAS ARE RUNNING 4 TO 6 FEET. HOWEVER...COMPUTER
MODELS INDICATE THAT ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
LIKELY ENHANCE THE SEAS AS WELL...IN PARTICULAR... THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A 6 TO 8 FOOT OR MORE WESTERLY SWELL IS POSSIBLE...AND THIS MAY
REACH AS FAR EAST AS KOSRAE.

RESIDENTS OF CHUUK...POHNPEI AND KOSRAE STATES SHOULD KEEP ADVISED
ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE. AS ANY SLOW MOVEMENT CAN
ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED RAINFALL AND POSSIBILITY OF
MUDSLIDES ON THE MORE MOUNTAINOUS ISLANDS. LISTEN FOR ANY FURTHER
STATEMENTS OR ADVISORIES FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

$$

EDSON

[euro6208]

Models have this brushing or hitting Guam by the 12th and we are soft opening a 5 star hotel on the 15th...

This will be interesting...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

TS tomorrow?

[xtyphooncyclonex]

If this pans out, this would be amazing and historic. GFS shows 880 mbar for future Dolphin

[cycloneye]

WDPN32 PGTW 062100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W (SEVEN)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 07W (SEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 142 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF POHNPEI, FSM, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (EIR) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS FURTHER CONSOLIDATED AS FORMATIVE
BANDS, ALBEIT FRAGMENTED, WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT REMAINS ILL-DEFINED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON THE EIR ANIMATION AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM A LOW REFLECTIVITY
NOTCH FEATURE ON A 89 GHZ 061151Z GPM MICROWAVE PASS. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND
RJTD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS WELL SOUTH OF A
RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS OFFSETTING THE VWS AND
PROVIDING VENTILATION TO THE CONVECTION. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING WITH THE LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE FIRST PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN AND SETS THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. TD 07W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A VERY SLOW EASTWARD TRACK
AND WEAK INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. AFTER THE SYSTEM
GAINS VERTICAL DEPTH, IT IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU
36 AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH ASSUMES STEERING.
IMPROVED OUTFLOW AND LOWER VWS, AS THE STORM MOTION BECOMES IN-PHASE
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS, WILL PROMOTE STEADY INTENSIFICATION,
REACHING 75 KNOTS BY TAU 72.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, TD 07W WILL CONTINUE ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AND ENHANCE FURTHER INTENSIFICATION, REACHING
95 KNOTS BY THE END OF FORECAST AS IT APPROACHES GUAM. DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE STORM MOTION DURING THE INITIAL 36 HOURS, THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL JTWC TRACK FORECAST ON THIS SYSTEM.//
NNNN

[cycloneye]

000
WTPQ32 PGUM 062045
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP072015
800 AM CHST THU MAY 7 2015

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W NEWLY FORMED IN POHNPEI STATE...

CHANGES THIS ADVISORY
---------------------
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR PINGELAP...MOKIL AND
SAPWUAFIK (NGATIK) IN POHNPEI STATE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR PINGELAP...MOKIL AND
SAPWUAFIK (NGATIK) IN POHNPEI STATE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 34 TO 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
48 HOURS.

ADDITIONALLY...RESIDENTS OF POHNPEI AND PAKIN IN POHNPEI STATE...
FANANU IN CHUUK STATE AND THE MARIANAS SHOULD CAREFULLY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...4.8N 159.4E

ABOUT 125 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PINGELAP
ABOUT 140 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MOKIL
ABOUT 155 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAPWUAFIK (NGATIK)
ABOUT 165 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF POHNPEI
ABOUT 250 MILES WEST OF KOSRAE
ABOUT 550 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF WENO ISLAND CHUUK AND
ABOUT 1160 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHEAST...35 DEGREES AT 5 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 4.8 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 159.4 EAST...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH. 07W IS EXPECTED TO SLOW IN FORWARD
SPEED THEN GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24
TO 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 MPH. TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 07W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AND COULD BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM FRIDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 PM.

$$

STANKO

[euro6208]

Forecasting a near major!

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ82 PGUM 062306
HLSPQ2

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
900 AM CHST THU MAY 7 2015

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W NEWLY FORMED IN POHNPEI STATE...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE ON PINGELAP...MOKIL AND SAPWUAFIK (NGATIK) IN POHNPEI
STATE.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR PINGELAP...MOKIL AND
SAPWUAFIK (NGATIK) IN POHNPEI STATE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 34
TO 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...4.8N 159.4E

ABOUT 125 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PINGELAP
ABOUT 140 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MOKIL
ABOUT 155 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAPWUAFIK (NGATIK)
ABOUT 165 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF POHNPEI
ABOUT 250 MILES WEST OF KOSRAE
ABOUT 550 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF WENO ISLAND CHUUK AND
ABOUT 1160 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHEAST...35 DEGREES AT 5 MPH

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY...
PROBABLY REACHING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH FRIDAY. WINDS WILL
INCREASE WITHIN POHNPEI STATE AS 07W CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE. HEAVY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ENHANCE THE WINDS AND POSSIBLY
RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

...MOKIL...
.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MOKIL. IDENTIFY A
SUITABLE SHELTER AS SOON AS POSSIBLE. SET ASIDE ENOUGH FOOD AND
WATER FOR SEVERAL DAYS. DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY.
DO NOT ATTEMPT INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS HAVE
SUBSIDED AFTER 07W PASSES.

...WIND INFORMATION...
EAST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WILL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. ON SATURDAY MORNING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO
BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PEAK SATURDAY AFTERNOON AT AROUND 60 MPH. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH
BY SUNDAY MORNING.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
COMBINED SEAS WILL BUILD TO BETWEEN 9 AND 12 FEET ON SATURDAY...
WHICH WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS SURF OF 14 TO 18 FEET MAINLY ON EAST
FACING REEFS AND BEACHES. THIS COULD LEAD TO INUNDATION OF UP TO
2 FEET...ESPECIALLY AT TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL OF 5 TO 8 INCHES IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

...PINGELAP...
.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PINGELAP. IDENTIFY A
SUITABLE SHELTER AS SOON AS POSSIBLE. SET ASIDE ENOUGH FOOD AND
WATER FOR SEVERAL DAYS. DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. DO NOT ATTEMPT INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL UNTIL WINDS AND
SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED AFTER 07W PASSES.

...WIND INFORMATION...
EAST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WILL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY
AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH. WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE TO 30 TO
40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL PEAK
SATURDAY MORNING AT AROUND 60 MPH...THEN DIMINISH BY EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
COMBINED SEAS WILL BUILD TO BETWEEN 9 AND 12 FEET FRIDAY NIGHT...
WHICH WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS SURF OF 14 TO 18 FEET MAINLY ON EAST
FACING REEFS AND BEACHES. THIS COULD LEAD TO INUNDATION OF UP TO
2 FEET...ESPECIALLY AT TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. A WEST SWELL WILL
LIKELY SET UP AFTER 07W HAS PASSED.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL OF 4 TO 7 INCHES IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

...SAPWUAFIK...
.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SAPWUAFIK. IDENTIFY A
SUITABLE SHELTER AS SOON AS POSSIBLE. SET ASIDE ENOUGH FOOD AND
WATER FOR SEVERAL DAYS. DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT
BUT COULD ARRIVE EARLIER IF 07W DOES NOT HOOK AS FAR EAST AS IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST. DO NOT ATTEMPT INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL UNTIL
WINDS AND SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED AFTER 07W PASSES.

...WIND INFORMATION...
NORTH WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WILL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON
SATURDAY AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH. WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE
TO 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...THEN DIMINISH SUNDAY EVENING.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
COMBINED SEAS WILL BUILD TO BETWEEN 8 AND 10 FEET SATURDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS SURF OF 10 TO 13 FEET
MAINLY ON WEST FACING REEFS AND BEACHES. THIS COULD LEAD TO
INUNDATION OF UP TO 1 FOOT...ESPECIALLY AT TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL OF 4 TO 7 INCHES IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 300 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

$$

AYDLETT/STANKO/SIMPSON/KLEESCHULTE/GUARD

[cycloneye]

WDPN32 PGTW 070300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W (SEVEN)
WARNING NR 02//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 07W (SEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 201 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF POHNPEI, FSM, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BECOME
SEMI-EXPOSED AS THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS SHEARED WESTWARD. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI ANIMATION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE SYSTEM IS WELL SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE
(15-20 KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS PARTIALLY OFFSETTING THE VWS AND PROVIDING
VENTILATION TO THE OFFSET CONVECTION. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING WITH THE LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 07W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A VERY SLOW EASTWARD TRACK
AND WEAK INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. AFTER THE SYSTEM
GAINS VERTICAL DEPTH, IT IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU
36 AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH ASSUMES STEERING.
IMPROVED OUTFLOW AND LOWER VWS, AS THE STORM MOTION BECOMES IN-PHASE
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS, WILL PROMOTE STEADY INTENSIFICATION,
REACHING 75 KNOTS BY TAU 72.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, TD 07W WILL CONTINUE ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AND ENHANCE FURTHER INTENSIFICATION, REACHING
95 KNOTS BY THE END OF FORECAST AS IT APPROACHES GUAM. DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE STORM MOTION DURING THE INITIAL 36 HOURS, THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

I've never seen a typhoon strike Pohnpei before. Must be some kind of record if that forecast pans out.

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ32 PGUM 070641
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP072015
500 PM CHST THU MAY 7 2015

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD IN
POHNPEI STATE...

CHANGES THIS ADVISORY
---------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PINGELAP...MOKIL AND
SAPWUAFIK (NGATIK) IN POHNPEI STATE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 34 TO 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
48 HOURS.

ADDITIONALLY...RESIDENTS OF POHNPEI AND PAKIN IN POHNPEI STATE...
FANANU IN CHUUK STATE AND THE MARIANAS SHOULD CAREFULLY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W.

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CHST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...3.4N 160.2E

ABOUT 195 MILES SOUTH OF PINGELAP
ABOUT 235 MILES SOUTH OF MOKIL
ABOUT 260 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAPWUAFIK (NGATIK)
ABOUT 235 MILES SOUTHWEST OF KOSRAE
ABOUT 280 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF POHNPEI
ABOUT 635 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF WENO ISLAND CHUUK AND
ABOUT 1260 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SOUTHEAST...130 DEGREES AT 5 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 400 PM CHST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W
WILL BE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 3.4 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 160.2 EAST.
07W IS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH AND IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...THEN NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 MPH. TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 07W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AND COULD BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM ON FRIDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 PM THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 1100 PM TONIGHT.

$$

KLEESCHULTE

[cycloneye]

Moving eastsoutheastward but that will change soon.



WDPN32 PGTW 070900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W (SEVEN)
WARNING NR 03//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W (SEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 233 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF POHNPEI, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
RECENT PGTW SATELLITE FIX AND A 070317Z AMSU-B IMAGE. THE INTENSITY
OF 30 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM KNES AND PGTW. TD 07W IS TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG A
ZONE OF NEAR-EQUATORIAL LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW. DEEP CONVECTION IS
PRIMARILY CONFINED TO THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER DUE TO PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 07W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON AN EASTWARD TRACK WITH
MINIMAL INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER, A
BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
EXERT A COMPETING STEERING INFLUENCE AND EVENTUALLY REDIRECT THE
SYSTEM TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BY TAU 48. AS THE SYSTEM MAKES THE TURN,
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AND UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW
INCREASE. THESE FACTORS, ALONG WITH PASSAGE OVER VERY WARM WATER,
SHOULD SUPPORT AN INCREASE TO TYPHOON INTENSITY BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL
MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TIMING AND ORIENTATION OF
THE TURN TO THE NORTHWEST, BUT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING STORM SPEED THROUGH AND AFTER THE TURN. THE CURRENT
FORECAST LIES NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, WITHIN A GROUPING OF
MODEL TRACKERS REPRESENTING A MAJORITY OF CONSENSUS COMPONENT MODELS.
C. IN THE EXTENDED RANGE, TD 07W WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD UNDER
THE CONTINUED STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH. GENERALLY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST, SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION THROUGH THE END OF
FORECAST PERIOD. MODEL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TRACK SPEED
CARRIES FORWARD INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE JTWC FORECAST REMAINS
CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS DURING THIS PERIOD, WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ32 PGUM 070923
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP072015
800 PM CHST THU MAY 7 2015

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W INTENSIFIES AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD KOSRAE STATE...

CHANGES THIS ADVISORY
---------------------
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR KOSRAE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR KOSRAE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PINGELAP...MOKIL AND
SAPWUAFIK (NGATIK) IN POHNPEI STATE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 34 TO 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
48 HOURS.

ADDITIONALLY...RESIDENTS OF POHNPEI AND PAKIN IN POHNPEI STATE...
FANANU IN CHUUK STATE AND THE MARIANAS SHOULD CAREFULLY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...3.5N 160.3E

ABOUT 190 MILES SOUTH OF PINGELAP
ABOUT 225 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KOSRAE
ABOUT 230 MILES SOUTH OF MOKIL
ABOUT 260 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAPWUAFIK (NGATIK)
ABOUT 275 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF POHNPEI
ABOUT 640 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF WENO ISLAND CHUUK AND
ABOUT 1265 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...EAST-SOUTHEAST...120 DEGREES AT 7 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W
WILL BE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 3.5 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 160.3 EAST.
07W IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 7 MPH AND IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...THEN NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 35 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION
07W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
STORM ON FRIDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 1100 PM TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY
AT 200 AM EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

$$

KLEESCHULTE

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ82 PGUM 070940
HLSPQ2

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
900 PM CHST THU MAY 7 2015

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD KOSRAE STATE...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE ON PINGELAP...MOKIL AND SAPWUAFIK (NGATIK) IN POHNPEI
STATE AND KOSRAE.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR KOSRAE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PINGELAP...MOKIL AND
SAPWUAFIK (NGATIK) IN POHNPEI STATE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 34 TO
73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...3.5N 160.3E

ABOUT 190 MILES SOUTH OF PINGELAP
ABOUT 225 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KOSRAE
ABOUT 230 MILES SOUTH OF MOKIL
ABOUT 260 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAPWUAFIK (NGATIK)
ABOUT 275 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF POHNPEI
ABOUT 640 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF WENO ISLAND CHUUK AND
ABOUT 1265 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...EAST-SOUTHEAST...120 DEGREES AT 7 MPH

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY...PROBABLY
REACHING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. WINDS WILL
INCREASE WITHIN POHNPEI AND KOSRAE STATES AS 07W CONTINUES TO
ORGANIZE. HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ENHANCE THE WINDS AND
POSSIBLY RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

...KOSRAE...
.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR KOSRAE. IDENTIFY A
SUITABLE SHELTER AS SOON AS POSSIBLE. SET ASIDE ENOUGH FOOD AND
WATER FOR SEVERAL DAYS. DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT TO
SATURDAY MORNING. DO NOT ATTEMPT INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL UNTIL WINDS AND
SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED AFTER 07W PASSES.

...WIND INFORMATION...
EAST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WILL TURN SOUTHEAST FRIDAY MORNING.
SOUTHEAST WINDS COULD INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH FRIDAY AND MAY
INCREASE TO BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH FRIDAY
EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK BY SATURDAY MORNING AND
DEPENDING ON EXACT MOTION OF 07W COULD BE AS HIGH AS 50 MPH. WINDS
WILL THEN DIMINISH BY SATURDAY EVENING.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
COMBINED SEAS COULD BUILD TO BETWEEN 8 AND 11 FEET ON FRIDAY...
WHICH COULD PRODUCE HAZARDOUS SURF OF 10 TO 14 FEET...MAINLY ON
SOUTH AND WEST FACING REEFS AND BEACHES. THIS COULD LEAD TO
INUNDATION OF UP TO 1 FOOT...ESPECIALLY AT TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL OF 3 TO 6 INCHES IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

...MOKIL...
.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOKIL. IDENTIFY A
SUITABLE SHELTER AS SOON AS POSSIBLE. SET ASIDE ENOUGH FOOD AND
WATER FOR SEVERAL DAYS. DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY. DO NOT
ATTEMPT INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED AFTER
07W PASSES.

...WIND INFORMATION...
EAST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WILL TURN NORTHEAST TONIGHT. NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. ON
SATURDAY MORNING...WINDS MAY INCREASE TO BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 50 MPH. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
COULD BE AS HIGH AS 60 MPH. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH BY SUNDAY
MORNING.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
COMBINED SEAS COULD BUILD TO BETWEEN 9 AND 12 FEET ON SATURDAY...
WHICH COULD PRODUCE HAZARDOUS SURF OF 12 TO 15 FEET...MAINLY ON EAST
FACING REEFS AND BEACHES. THIS COULD LEAD TO INUNDATION OF UP TO 1
FOOT...ESPECIALLY AT TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL OF 5 TO 8 INCHES IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

...PINGELAP...
.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PINGELAP. IDENTIFY A
SUITABLE SHELTER AS SOON AS POSSIBLE. SET ASIDE ENOUGH FOOD AND
WATER FOR SEVERAL DAYS. DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. DO NOT ATTEMPT INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL UNTIL WINDS AND
SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED AFTER 07W PASSES.

...WIND INFORMATION...
EAST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WILL TURN NORTHEAST FRIDAY AND INCREASE
TO 15 TO 25 MPH. WINDS MAY THEN INCREASE TO 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 50 MPH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL PEAK SATURDAY MORNING AND
COULD BE AS HIGH AS 60 MPH...THEN DIMINISH BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
COMBINED SEAS COULD BUILD TO BETWEEN 9 AND 12 FEET FRIDAY NIGHT...
WHICH COULD PRODUCE HAZARDOUS SURF OF 12 TO 15 FEET...MAINLY ON EAST
FACING REEFS AND BEACHES. THIS COULD LEAD TO INUNDATION OF UP TO 1
FOOT...ESPECIALLY AT TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. A WEST SWELL WILL LIKELY
SET UP AFTER 07W HAS PASSED.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL OF 4 TO 7 INCHES IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

...SAPWUAFIK...
.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT SAPWUAFIK. IDENTIFY A
SUITABLE SHELTER AS SOON AS POSSIBLE. SET ASIDE ENOUGH FOOD AND
WATER FOR SEVERAL DAYS. DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT
BUT COULD ARRIVE EARLIER IF 07W DOES NOT HOOK AS FAR EAST AS IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST. DO NOT ATTEMPT INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL UNTIL
WINDS AND SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED AFTER 07W PASSES.

...WIND INFORMATION...
NORTH WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WILL TURN NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY AND
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH. WINDS MAY THEN INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...THEN DIMINISH SUNDAY EVENING.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
COMBINED SEAS MAY BUILD TO BETWEEN 8 AND 10 FEET SATURDAY NIGHT...
WHICH WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS SURF OF 10 TO 13 FEET...MAINLY ON WEST
FACING REEFS AND BEACHES. THIS COULD LEAD TO INUNDATION OF UP TO 1
FOOT...ESPECIALLY AT TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL OF 4 TO 7 INCHES IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 300 AM FRIDAY MORNING.

$$

KLEESCHULTE

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Wow.. if it pans out it will shatter many records. Dangerously close to the Philippines