SPAC: PAM - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

18Z GFS wallops Vanuatu and peaks at 880 mb.

12Z EURO bottoms this out to 935 mb which is the best case scenario...

It is simply too large and systems like this take several days to intensify significantly. GFS says a category 1 type cyclone in 48 hours...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Whoa! The forecast models have 93P with central pressure as low as 869 millibars! That is the most intense on record! I have never seen any forecast model predict such low pressure.

What record?

Are we align to think that Super Typhoon Tip's 870 mb record in 1979 still stands?

Remember that since 1987, many typhoons stronger than Tip have surpassed in the absence of recon...Including Megi and Haiyan which peaked at 175 knots and for haiyan? maybe 185 knots?

Some people think that comparing atlantic hurricanes and pacific typhoons is modern...

But technically, 869 mb is stronger officially than any other tropical cyclones in recorded history. Why compare extremely high winds of a storm to another storm's low pressure?

[cycloneye]

WTPS11 NFFN 070600 CCA
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A1 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 07/0803 UTC 2015 UTC.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 11F CENTRE [1000HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 8.0S
169.6E AT 070600 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR AND VIS
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. DISTURBANCE MOVING WEST AT
ABOUT 4 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 20 KNOTS.
ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED SLIGHTLY PAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTION REMAINS
PESISTENT. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 500HPA. SST AROUND 31
DEGREES CELSIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.2 WRAP YEILDS DT=1.5,
PAT=1.5, MET=1.5. THUS YEILDING 1.5/1.5/D0.5/24HRS.
GLOBAL MODEL HAVE PICKED THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHWARDS WITH
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.
POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 071800 UTC 7.8S 170.0E MOV ENE AT 02KT WITH 25 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 080600 UTC 8.0S 170.6E MOV ESE AT 03KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 081800 UTC 9.0S 171.0E MOV SSE AT 04KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 090600 UTC 10.1S 170.7E MOV S AT 05KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11F
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 071400 UTC.

[jaguarjace]

RSMC Nadi Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP
Tropical Low
Tropical Cyclone Warning Number 1 issued 0821 UTC Saturday 7 March 2015

[cycloneye]

Looks better with much more deep convection in the past few hours but still circulation is somewhat broad.Saved image.

[cycloneye]

12z GFS still has a very strong cyclone but not with sub 800 MSLP.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

12z GFS still has a very strong cyclone but not with sub 800 MSLP.

That's not the high-resolution image which is still loading in. 927mb through 96 hours.

[cycloneye]

The models agree with some differences in time and intensity on a very strong Cyclone in the South Pacific. It depends on how much time it takes to organize to then have a significant cyclone or not.

[cycloneye]

859 mbs is now the lowest MSLP by GFS. Is insane but maybe some feedback issues going on.

[Ptarmigan]

What record?

Are we align to think that Super Typhoon Tip's 870 mb record in 1979 still stands?

Remember that since 1987, many typhoons stronger than Tip have surpassed in the absence of recon...Including Megi and Haiyan which peaked at 175 knots and for haiyan? maybe 185 knots?

Some people think that comparing atlantic hurricanes and pacific typhoons is modern...

Record by lowest central pressure.

I am sure that there are tropical cyclones that have beaten Tip, but they are not measured directly. Tip was measured directly.

Most intense South Pacific Tropical Cyclone is 890 millibars in Cyclone Zoe of 2002.

[somethingfunny]

What in the world....

[jaguarjace]

[cycloneye]

Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #3
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 11F
6:00 AM FST March 8 2015
=============================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 11F (1000 hPa) located at 8.4S 169.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 20 knots. The disturbance is reported as moving southwest at 3 knots. Position poor based on hourly GMS enhanced infrared imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Organization has slightly improved in the past 24 hours. Convection remains persistent north of low level circulation center. System lies under an upper ridge in a low sheared environment. Cyclonic circulation extends to 500 HPA. Sea surface temperatures around 30C.

Dvorak analysis based on 0.2 wrap yields DT=1.5, MET and PAT agrees.

Dvorak Intensity: T1.5/1.5/D0.5/24 HRS

Global models have picked the system and slowly move it southwards with further intensification.

Forecast and Intensity
==================
12 HRS 8.6S 169.6E - 25 knots (Tropical Depression)
24 HRS 9.4S 170.0E - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
48 HRS 11.8S 169.9E - 55 knots (CAT 2)

[1900hurricane]

Looks like at least one overshoot in the northeastern complex associated with 93P cleared -100*C at 1801Z.

[Yellow Evan]

Looks like at least one overshoot in the northeastern complex associated with 93P cleared -100*C at 1801Z.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 071801.GIF

Hint of some big-time intensification.

[1900hurricane]

Yep, ASCAT shows the wind burst well.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track down to 999 mbs.

93P INVEST 150308 0000 7.9S 170.3E SHEM 20 999

[jaguarjace]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A5 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 08/0754 UTC 2015 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11F CENTRE 997HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 8.0S 169.7E AT
080600 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GMS IR/VIS IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. DEPRESSION SLOW MOVING. MAXIMUM
10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 25 KNOTS.


ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED SLIGHTLY PAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTION REMAINS
PESISTENT. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION IN A LOW TO
MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS TO 500HPA.
SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.3 WRAP
YEILDS DT=2.0, PAT AND MET AGREE. THUS YEILDING 2.0/2.0/D0.5/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODEL HAVE PICKED THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHWARDS WITH
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS HIGH.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 081800 UTC 8.9S 169.9E MOV S AT 05KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 090600 UTC 9.5S 169.6E MOV S AT 04KT WITH 40 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 091800 UTC 10.0S 169.3E MOV SSW AT 03KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 100600 UTC 10.6S 169.4E MOV S AT 03KT WITH 55 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11F
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 081400 UTC.

[euro6208]

18Z GFS wallops Vanuatu and peaks at 880 mb.

12Z EURO bottoms this out to 935 mb which is the best case scenario...

It is simply too large and systems like this take several days to intensify significantly. GFS says a category 1 type cyclone in 48 hours...

According to GFS, we should have a category 1 cyclone equivalent in 14 hours at the time i posted this, no TC to even speak of...

[euro6208]

Woah those look like WPAC temperatures in the summer...