ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

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HurrMark
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#121 Postby HurrMark » Tue Sep 29, 2015 11:34 am

Yeah this run (and the last few) have been ridiculous. Whatever is left of Ida is getting torn to shreds. No way will it have an impact on Joaquin.
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#122 Postby Alyono » Tue Sep 29, 2015 11:34 am

the MU now makes Ida the dominant system

when will LU fix his model?
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#123 Postby LarryWx » Tue Sep 29, 2015 11:35 am

Prelim. 12z CMC maps suggest a good bit more SW move into the Bahamas before sharp turn. 9 mb stronger at hour 48.

Edit; Later CMC shows no Fuji with Ida and instead looks like it may slam the NE ~120 hours. Will know more soon.
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#124 Postby LarryWx » Tue Sep 29, 2015 11:47 am

12Z UK: NC gets slammed with a 980's cane 10/3-4 from SE.
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Re:

#125 Postby wxman57 » Tue Sep 29, 2015 11:48 am

PTrackerLA wrote:Can someone please post the 12z UKMET?


Here it is. It's in line with the EC & GFS ensembles.

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#126 Postby HurrMark » Tue Sep 29, 2015 11:50 am

That would make Isabel look like a walk in the park...
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#127 Postby Alyono » Tue Sep 29, 2015 11:51 am

CMC Delaware Bay landfall
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Re: Re:

#128 Postby LarryWx » Tue Sep 29, 2015 11:54 am

wxman57 wrote:
PTrackerLA wrote:Can someone please post the 12z UKMET?


Here it is. It's in line with the EC & GFS ensembles.

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/UK.JPG


I have a 12Z UK 120 hour point that isn't on your map that implies a little further south hit of center into NC between 108 and 120 fwiw:

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet ... 0_0000.gif
Last edited by LarryWx on Tue Sep 29, 2015 11:57 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re:

#129 Postby wxman57 » Tue Sep 29, 2015 11:55 am

Alyono wrote:CMC Delaware Bay landfall


I don't see a landfall with the Canadian. 144hrs has it passing east of Long Island. Where are you seeing this?
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Re: Re:

#130 Postby Alyono » Tue Sep 29, 2015 11:57 am

wxman57 wrote:
Alyono wrote:CMC Delaware Bay landfall


I don't see a landfall with the Canadian. 144hrs has it passing east of Long Island. Where are you seeing this?


check the 126 hour panel. It's over southern Jersey on Levi's site

you looking at the 0Z CMC? That one was east of Long Island
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Re: Re:

#131 Postby wxman57 » Tue Sep 29, 2015 11:58 am

Alyono wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
Alyono wrote:CMC Delaware Bay landfall


I don't see a landfall with the Canadian. 144hrs has it passing east of Long Island. Where are you seeing this?


check the 126 hour panel. It's over southern Jersey on Levi's site


It's only in through 66 hrs on Levi's site. Wait, hang on. The US map was only in through 66hrs, the Atlantic map is all in.
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Re: Re:

#132 Postby invest man » Tue Sep 29, 2015 11:58 am

wxman57 wrote:
PTrackerLA wrote:Can someone please post the 12z UKMET?


Here it is. It's in line with the EC & GFS ensembles.

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/UK.JPG

Is this very probable with the on coming front or does the models predicting this string out the front e/w north of VA? IM
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Re: Re:

#133 Postby LarryWx » Tue Sep 29, 2015 11:59 am

wxman57 wrote:It's only in through 66 hrs on Levi's site.


http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... eus_22.png
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Re: Re:

#134 Postby tolakram » Tue Sep 29, 2015 12:00 pm

wxman57 wrote:It's only in through 66 hrs on Levi's site.



His site has issues with some maps lagging far behind others at times.
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Re: Re:

#135 Postby drezee » Tue Sep 29, 2015 12:06 pm

LarryWx wrote:
wxman57 wrote:It's only in through 66 hrs on Levi's site.


http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... eus_22.png


Like I said yesterday, this has the potential to be "Son of Sandy"...Trademark...
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Re: Re:

#136 Postby drezee » Tue Sep 29, 2015 12:15 pm

drezee wrote:
LarryWx wrote:
wxman57 wrote:It's only in through 66 hrs on Levi's site.


http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... eus_22.png


Like I said yesterday, this has the potential to be "Son of Sandy"...Trademark...

Yuck!

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015092912/gem_mslp_uv850_us_21.png
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#137 Postby RevDodd » Tue Sep 29, 2015 12:17 pm

GFS sends Joaquin back off to the northeast, but dumps a boatload of rain Down East into the Piedmont and the heart of Virginia. Looks like it's phasing the energy along that frontal boundary..
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#138 Postby gatorcane » Tue Sep 29, 2015 12:17 pm

NAVGEM stronger and into New Jersey/New York. This is only 84 hours from now:

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#139 Postby LarryWx » Tue Sep 29, 2015 12:19 pm

Can delete this
Last edited by LarryWx on Tue Sep 29, 2015 12:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#140 Postby gatorcane » Tue Sep 29, 2015 12:19 pm

12Z HWRF down to 938MB by hour 75 :eek:

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