ATL: ANA - Post-Tropical

[NDG]

As seen on satellite this morning the strongest quadrant seems to be the SE quadrant found so far by the recon this morning, strongest winds much closer to the low pressure center than yesterday, 54 knots flight level winds.

113230 3043N 07639W 8439 01521 0087 +116 +115 222052 054 040 012 00

[NDG]

Make that 56 knots.

114000 3027N 07622W 8421 01550 0111 +106 +105 221056 056 041 008 00
114030 3026N 07620W 8429 01546 0108 +112 +103 217053 056 040 007 03

[wxman57]

Still, 10 second winds of 40 kts at the surface (SFMR) supports only about 35 kts 1-minute winds.

[NDG]

Vortex:

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 8th day of the month at 11:46Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5304
Storm Number & Year: 01 in 2015
Storm Name: Ana (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 3
Observation Number: 06
A. Time of Center Fix: 8th day of the month at 11:13:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 31°27'N 77°29'W (31.45N 77.4833W)
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,426m (4,678ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 35kts (~ 40.3mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 55 nautical miles (63 statute miles) to the NW (306°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 37° at 34kts (From the NE at ~ 39.1mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 65 nautical miles (75 statute miles) to the NW (306°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1005mb (29.68 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 12°C (54°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,520m (4,987ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 14°C (57°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,525m (5,003ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 850mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:
Maximum Outbound and Flight Level Wind: 56kts (~ 64.4mph) which was observed 82 nautical miles (94 statute miles) to the SE (132°) from the flight level center at 11:40:00Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 15°C (59°F) which was observed 29 nautical miles (33 statute miles) to the WNW (303°) from the flight level center
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 75° at 1kts (From the ENE at 1mph)

[wxman57]

Winds appear to be in the 35-40kt range (1-min) based on the first recon pass. 10-sec winds were a little over 40 kts.

[NDG]

Notice how the strong winds are much closer to its center, on the southern quadrant, than yesterday.

[tolakram]

Live visible loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=31&lon=-78&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=92&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=10&mapcolor=gray

So what is making Ana sub-tropical? Looks like a poorly organized tropical storm to me, with most of the convection very close to the center.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[NDG]

Looks like the center moved closer to the convection on the SE Quadrant, finds lower pressures there.

131900 3125N 07659W 8430 01483 0012 +152 +107 282006 007 009 001 00

[NDG]

Live visible loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=31&lon=-78&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=92&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=10&mapcolor=gray

So what is making Ana sub-tropical? Looks like a poorly organized tropical storm to me, with most of the convection very close to the center.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I am sure it is going to change soon, especially since it is going to be over the warm loop current at least over the next 36 hrs.

[wxman57]

The only TS-strength winds appear to be in the SE quadrant. About 30kts in the NW quadrant, 25-30 kts NE and 20-25kts SW. It's over a very narrow band of 26C water, which is barely warm enough to support tropical development. It remains to be seen if Ana's winds can intensify. So far, its peak was yesterday afternoon.

[TheStormExpert]

So it sounds to me like they will downgrade Ana's winds to 35kts(40mph) @ the 11am advisory?

[Sanibel]

Weird because we have been abnormally cool and dry down here the past few days. Interesting way-early feature.

[NDG]

As I mentioned pressure is now down to 1001 mb, center moved closer to the convection.

URNT12 KNHC 081401
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL012015
A. 08/13:18:00Z
B. 31 deg 28 min N
077 deg 02 min W
C. 850 mb 1413 m
D. 34 kt
E. 359 deg 27 nm
F. 144 deg 37 kt
G. 010 deg 33 nm
H. 1001 mb
I. 13 C / 1523 m
J. 16 C / 1523 m
K. NA / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 08
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF304 0301A ANA OB 10
MAX FL WIND 56 KT 147 / 70 NM 11:40:00Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 42 KT 227 / 82 NM 13:48:00Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 200/10 KT
;

[wxman57]

Strange spike well above FL winds in the SW quadrant. Probably not representative of the true surface wind. No TS winds in the NE or NW quadrants this morning.

[NDG]

Strange spike well above FL winds in the SW quadrant. Probably not representative of the true surface wind. No TS winds in the NE or NW quadrants this morning.

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/Ana2.gif

I am sure it was rain contaminated.

[TheStormExpert]

Weird because we have been abnormally cool and dry down here the past few days. Interesting way-early feature.

That's because the flow around the backside of Ana is bringing down dry air out of the NW. Still expected to warm into the mid/upper 80's with low 70's as lows here in Eastern Palm Beach County, which some inland pop up showers/storms each afternoon and evening.

[OuterBanker]

At the speed that Ana is moving it's going to be the start of the season before it reaches land anyway.

[CrazyC83]

These early tropical storms out of non-tropical lows do not provide hints to the hurricane season at all. 1992 had an April storm - and only 6 more (one of which, of course, was Andrew).

[Hammy]

These early tropical storms out of non-tropical lows do not provide hints to the hurricane season at all. 1992 had an April storm - and only 6 more (one of which, of course, was Andrew).

I will chime in on 1992 to say that there were probably at least a few storms that will be added if the reanalysis goes that far.

[scotto]

No Floater?

I thought invests got floaters.