ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

[Ntxw]

Why the big difference between the dynamical models and globals? What a forecasters nightmare.

It's not an easy calculation for the models. There are so many moving parts interacting, or lackthereof. It is still a half naked swirl, will it strengthen? How big is the trough digging into the east coast and how strong is the nor'easter coming from? How will the two interact? What happens to ex-Ida, fujiwara? I mean this thing has been drifting southward for a day or two.

[Bizzles]

the deterministic models are not following the ensembles. Too much Ida interaction in the deterministic

So does that mean that Florida may be in play?

I think everything is in play ATM...gotta wait and see

[TheStormExpert]

Latest 12z Model Guidance.

12z Track Guidance



12z Intensity Guidance

[stormlover2013]

woww I hope this doesn't happen, this could be a bad situation

[HurrMark]

12Z GFS starting to run...

[HurrMark]

Shift southward thru 36 hours...also a tad stronger.

[HurrMark]

Big shift from 00Z to the south...a small shift to the west from 06Z at 69 hourshttp://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=069&image=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_069_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150929+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model

[drezee]

Looks like the GFS is going all Euro on us now...interesting setup

[invest man]

Looks like the GFS is going all Euro on us now...interesting setup

What do you mean? IM

[PTrackerLA]

Looks to be heading EAST at 108 hrs on 12z GFS...

[WeatherEmperor]

Looks like the GFS is going all Euro on us now...interesting setup

Looks like its kicking it out NE at 90 hrs to sea it could turn back NW towards the NE US later in the run though


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[drezee]

Looks like the GFS is going all Euro on us now...interesting setup

What do you mean? IM

Out to the NE

[wxman57]

Combination of GFS and EC ensembles indicates landfall in NC/VA Sunday. Ensemble members are WAY different from both the deterministic GFS & EC. Beware!

Oh, and nothing indicates any threat to Florida - not one of 70 ensemble members or one deterministic run indicates a Florida threat.

[HurrMark]

Very similar to 6Z...essentially the coastal low becomes the dominant low, saps energy from Joaquin, and leaves it behind as a weak low for the fishies. Nothing looks tropical here.

[drezee]

Combination of GFS and EC ensembles indicates landfall in NC/VA Sunday. Ensemble members are WAY different from both the deterministic GFS & EC. Beware!

Oh, and nothing indicates any threat to Florida - not one of 70 ensemble members or one deterministic run indicates a Florida threat.

Agreed, like when everyone tells you the girl or guy is wrong for you...the position of the negative tilt and the storm is critical. Even with the operational model, it is CLOSE. A few mb lower and the storm 100 NW and you have yesterday's 12z Euro...

The synoptics allow for both scenarios....white knuckle forecast...

[Ntxw]

Combination of GFS and EC ensembles indicates landfall in NC/VA Sunday. Ensemble members are WAY different from both the deterministic GFS & EC. Beware!

Oh, and nothing indicates any threat to Florida - not one of 70 ensemble members or one deterministic run indicates a Florida threat.

Are the members (consensus) showing Joaquin as the dominant hit in NC/Va, or coastal/noreaster low? Or hybrid of both?

[invest man]

Combination of GFS and EC ensembles indicates landfall in NC/VA Sunday. Ensemble members are WAY different from both the deterministic GFS & EC. Beware!

Oh, and nothing indicates any threat to Florida - not one of 70 ensemble members or one deterministic run indicates a Florida threat.

Just for clarity sake, are you saying this could be a coastal NC/VA or are these ensembles you are talking about usually not accurate? Thanks in advance. IM

[Alyono]

NEVER use an ensemble consensus

Ensembles are best used for probabilistic forecasting.

Also, UKMET continues with an intense cane into the NC/VA region. The MU looks suspect as the coastal low appears to split off of Joaquin. That swings Joaquin to the east

[invest man]

NEVER use an ensemble consensus

Ensembles are best used for probabilistic forecasting.

Also, UKMET continues with an intense cane into the NC/VA region. The MU looks suspect as the coastal low appears to split off of Joaquin. That swings Joaquin to the east

Thanks Alyono that it what I was always taught. I just needed some verification. However this seems to get more bazaar each run. Sounds like an old fashion "mullet blow". IM

[PTrackerLA]

Can someone please post the 12z UKMET?