WPAC: NOUL - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 060643
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TYPHOON NOUL (06W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP062015
500 PM CHST WED MAY 6 2015

...TYPHOON NOUL MOVING AWAY FROM YAP...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
THE TYPHOON WARNING FOR YAP ISLAND IS CANCELLED.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CHST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.5N 136.9E

ABOUT 80 MILES WEST OF YAP
ABOUT 90 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF NGULU AND
ABOUT 230 MILES NORTHEAST OF KOROR

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 400 PM CHST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON NOUL WAS LOCATED
BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 9.5 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 136.9
DEGREES EAST. NOUL CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD AT AROUND 5 MPH...
AND IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 75 MPH. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUT UP TO 20 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUT UP TO 65 MILES FROM THE CENTER TOWARD THE SOUTH AND UP TO
75 MILES FROM THE CENTER TOWARD THE NORTH. SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 PM.

$$

AYDLETT

[xtyphooncyclonex]

GFS

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 060925
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TYPHOON NOUL (06W) ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP062015
800 PM CHST WED MAY 6 2015

...TYPHOON NOUL HEADING WESTWARD AND INTENSIFYING...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.6N 136.5E

ABOUT 110 MILES WEST OF YAP
ABOUT 115 MILES NORTHWEST OF NGULU AND
ABOUT 215 MILES NORTHEAST OF KOROR

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...280 DEGREES AT 8 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON NOUL WAS LOCATED
BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 9.6 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 136.5
DEGREES EAST. NOUL IS MOVING TO THE WEST AT AROUND 8 MPH. IT IS
EXPECTED TO TURN MORE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 85 MPH. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUT UP TO 20 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUT UP TO 90 MILES FROM THE CENTER TOWARD THE NORTH AND UP TO
70 MILES FROM THE CENTER TOWARD THE SORTH. CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 AM EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

$$

EDSON

[euro6208]

JMA brings this to northeastern luzon on a weakening trend



CMC recurves it and takes it to Okinawa and peak




NAVGEM luzon and Okinawa



EURO

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 060900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 06W (NOUL) WARNING NR 14//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 06W (NOUL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 71 NM WEST OF YAP,
HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A MORE
SYMMETRIC AREA OF DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH SPIRAL BANDING
WRAPPING INTO AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 060156Z
GMI MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS BROKEN CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE
WESTERN QUADRANT WRAPPING INTO A COMPACT MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM THE MICROWAVE EYE AND
SUPPORTED BY A PGTW SATELLITE POSITION FIX. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 75 KNOTS BASED ON THE IMPROVED CENTRAL CORE
STRUCTURE AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.5 (77 KNOTS) FROM
KNES AND PGTW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN IMPROVING
ENVIRONMENT WITH NEAR RADIAL OUTFLOW THAT IS EVIDENT ON THE WATER
VAPOR LOOP AND LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THAT
IS IN PHASE WITH CURRENT MOVEMENT; REDUCING IMPACTS. TY NOUL HAS
INCREASED FORWARD MOTION INDICATING THAT THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE NORTHWEST HAS ASSUMED STEERING.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TYPHOON NOUL WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AS THE STR TO THE NORTHWEST REMAINS THE DOMINANT
STEERING MECHANISM. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE
WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD DIVERGENT OUTFLOW.
BEYOND TAU 48, TY 06W WILL MOVE DOWNSTREAM FROM THE STR AXIS AND
GAIN AN ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW, FURTHER ASSISTING IN THE GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION AND LEADING TO A MAXIMUM INTENSITY OF 125 KNOTS AT
TAU 72.
C. AFTER TAU 72, AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PASS TO THE
NORTH CAUSING A BREAK IN THE STR, ALLOWING TY 06W TO TURN POLEWARD
AND ROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING STR.
CONCURRENTLY, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SLIGHTLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AS IT SKIRTS THE
EASTERN COAST OF THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINES AND LUZON. AVAILABLE MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY WESTWARD; HOWEVER, IT REMAINS OVERALL
IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

Lowest pressure recorded in Yap is 990 mb and highest gust recorded is 68 mph...

I can't find any obs from Fais and Ulithi...

[euro6208]

JTWC is right in the middle of the pack of models. Indicating a recurve just before luzon...

[euro6208]

GFS takes this into southern Luzon and Okinawa

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Wow... Changed their minds



GFS



Latest NAVGEM shows Southern Luzon

[xtyphooncyclonex]

JMA Upgrades to Typhoon

TY 1506 (NOUL)
Issued at 12:45 UTC, 6 May 2015

<Analyses at 06/12 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N9°55'(9.9°)
E136°00'(136.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL70km(40NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 07/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N11°05'(11.1°)
E132°40'(132.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area ALL240km(130NM)

<Forecast for 08/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N12°30'(12.5°)
E128°55'(128.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area ALL350km(190NM)

<Forecast for 09/12 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N14°35'(14.6°)
E124°55'(124.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 930hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(95kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(135kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)
Storm warning area ALL560km(300NM)

[euro6208]

Up to 80 knots!

06W NOUL 150506 1200 9.7N 136.1E WPAC 80 963

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Repeat of Babs 1998?



Or something like this (Not intensity)

[cycloneye]

WDPN31 PGTW 061500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 06W (NOUL) WARNING NR 15//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 06W (NOUL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 933 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEEP
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. A 061035Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A DEEP
CONVECTIVE CENTRAL CORE STRUCTURE WITH AN OPEN MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE
AND BROKEN CONVECTIVE SPIRAL BANDING. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED
ON THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE AND A 061241Z SCATTEROMETER
PASS WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN
OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH NEAR
RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
THAT IS IN PHASE WITH THE CURRENT MOVEMENT. TY NOUL IS MOVING WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE NORTHWEST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY NOUL WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS THE STR
TO THE NORTHWEST REMAINS THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY FAVORABLE WITH LOW TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD DIVERGENT OUTFLOW LEADING TO
GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION. BEYOND TAU 48, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSING
TO THE NORTH WILL BUILD THE STEERING STR, KEEPING THE SYSTEM ON A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY AS IT APPROACHES THE CENTRAL
PHILIPPINES. NEAR TAU 72, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PASS
TO THE NORTH CAUSING THE STR TO WEAKEN, ALLOWING TY 06W TO TURN
POLEWARD AND ROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING STR.
ADDITIONALLY, TY 06W WILL MOVE DOWNSTREAM FROM THE STR AXIS AND GAIN
AN ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW, FURTHER ASSISTING IN THE GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION AND LEADING TO A MAXIMUM INTENSITY OF 125 KNOTS AT
TAU 72.
C. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TURN POLEWARD AND
START TO WEAKEN DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AS IT SKIRTS THE EASTERN
COAST OF THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINES AND LUZON. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD AGAIN DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE MID-LATITUDE
PATTERN IMPACTING THE STEERING STR. BASED ON THE RECENT INSTABILITY
IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

[cycloneye]

WDPN31 PGTW 062100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 06W (NOUL) WARNING NR 16//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 06W (NOUL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 877 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED SPIRAL BANDING THAT
IS WRAPPED TIGHTLY INTO A DEEP CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE THAT IS
OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON THE EIR LOOP AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE
ON THE 061326Z 36GHZ GPM PASS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH NEAR RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW TO MODERATE
(10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) THAT IS IN PHASE WITH THE
CURRENT STORM MOTION. TY NOUL IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHWEST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 06W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS THE STR
REMAINS THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS, IN
ADDITION TO PERENNIALLY WARM SSTS IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA WILL ENHANCE
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION, PEAKING AT 115 KNOTS BY TAU 72.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TY NOUL WILL BEGIN TO TURN POLEWARD AND START TO
WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES AND BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE PHILIPPINE
ARCHIPELAGO. THE CYCLONE IS NOW EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL FURTHER
SOUTH ALONG THE EAST COAST OF LUZON, NEAR CASIGURAN AROUND TAU 84.
AFTERWARDS, IT WILL RAPIDLY ERODE AS IT DRAGS ACROSS RUGGED MOUNTAIN
RANGES; HOWEVER, IT WILL STILL BE A STRONG TROPICAL STORM WHEN IT
EXITS INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA SOUTH OF LAOAG SHORTLY AFTER TAU 96.
THE LATEST DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED FURTHER WESTWARD IN
ANTICIPATION OF A STRONGER STR. BASED ON THIS, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

[ManilaTC]

I now surmise that the whole of Luzon, including Manila, should prepare for a possible Cat 4 Typhoon.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I now surmise that the whole of Luzon, including Manila, should prepare for a possible Cat 4 Typhoon.

Include Visayas too. As the forecasts from models and agencies trend south and west, the more likely it would hit the region. The STR is holding strong. Latest agreement with models

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Another BIG change from JMA..



TY 1506 (NOUL)
Issued at 00:45 UTC, 7 May 2015

<Analyses at 07/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N10°30'(10.5°)
E134°20'(134.3°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL110km(60NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL330km(180NM)

<Forecast for 08/00 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N11°35'(11.6°)
E130°20'(130.3°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 935hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(95kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(135kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area ALL300km(160NM)

<Forecast for 09/00 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N13°20'(13.3°)
E126°00'(126.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 935hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(95kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(135kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area ALL370km(200NM)

<Forecast for 10/00 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N15°35'(15.6°)
E122°20'(122.3°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 940hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(90kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65m/s(130kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area ALL460km(250NM)

[xtyphooncyclonex]

06W NOUL 150507 0000 10.6N 134.2E WPAC 90 956

[cycloneye]

Second landfall in Taiwan.



WDPN31 PGTW 070300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 06W (NOUL) WARNING NR 17//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 06W (NOUL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 809 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SPIRAL BANDING HAS DEEPENED AND WRAPPED
TIGHTER INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON THE MSI LOOP AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE
ON THE 062313Z F18 MICROWAVE PARTIAL PASS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH NEAR RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW TO MODERATE
(10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) THAT IS IN-PHASE WITH THE
CURRENT STORM MOTION. TY NOUL IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHWEST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 06W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS THE STR
REMAINS THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS, IN
ADDITION TO PERENNIALLY WARM SSTS IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA WILL ENHANCE
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION, PEAKING AT 115 KNOTS BY TAU 72.
C. SHORTLY AFTER TAU 72, TY NOUL WILL BEGIN TO TURN POLEWARD AND
START TO WEAKEN AS IT MAKES LANDFALL OVER NORTHERN LUZON NEAR
CASIGURAN. IT WILL RAPIDLY ERODE AS IT DRAGS ACROSS RUGGED MOUNTAIN
RANGES; HOWEVER, IT WILL STILL BE A STRONG TROPICAL STORM WHEN IT
EXITS INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA NEAR LAOAG BY TAU 96. THE DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GFDN AND COTC AS
UNLIKELY OUTLIERS ON THE LEFT OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE. THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST IS LAID WITH LOW CONFIDENCE TOWARDS THE EXTENDED TAUS DUE TO
THE LARGE SPREAD AMONG THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS.//
NNNN

[mrbagyo]

A "dimple" is now appearing on the latest visible sat imagery...
By afternoon, Noul might be able to finally "see".

I'm a bit hesitant at giving this a chance of going super the past few days.
But now, looks like it can really wrap it up - this can go bonkers any time.