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SIO: Tropical Cyclone 01S
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Re: SIO: Tropical Cyclone 01S
Indian ocean comes alive... ![Very Happy :D](./images/smilies/icon_biggrin.gif)
TPXS10 PGTW 270315
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (SW OF DIEGO GARCIA)
B. 27/0230Z
C. 12.6S
D. 65.4E
E. SIX/MET7
F. T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAP OF .85 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDS A DT OF 3.5. PT AND MET YIELD A 3.0. DBO PT AND MET
AS CNVCTN IS FRAGMENTED.
UEHARA
![Very Happy :D](./images/smilies/icon_biggrin.gif)
TPXS10 PGTW 270315
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (SW OF DIEGO GARCIA)
B. 27/0230Z
C. 12.6S
D. 65.4E
E. SIX/MET7
F. T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAP OF .85 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDS A DT OF 3.5. PT AND MET YIELD A 3.0. DBO PT AND MET
AS CNVCTN IS FRAGMENTED.
UEHARA
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
- jaguarjace
- Category 4
- Posts: 975
- Age: 29
- Joined: Sat Jun 11, 2011 7:38 am
- Location: Khon Kaen, Thailand
Re: SIO: Tropical Cyclone 01S
I've made an RGB loop.
![Image](http://imageshack.us/a/img690/4240/cmw.gif)
![Image](http://imageshack.us/a/img690/4240/cmw.gif)
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Owner of the Tropical Archive YouTube channel
Web Developer at Force Thirteen
Twitter/X : @force13_support
Web Developer at Force Thirteen
Twitter/X : @force13_support
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- Category 1
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Re: SIO: Tropical Cyclone 01S
"se dissipant" in 48 hours from Reunion forecast instead of strengthening like JTWC forecast.
** WTIO30 FMEE 271222 ***
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/1/20132014
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 1
2.A POSITION 2013/10/27 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.8 S / 63.1 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY THREE DECIMAL
ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 10 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.5/2.0/S 0.0/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1004 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: SE: SW: 190 NW:
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : SHALLOW
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2013/10/28 00 UTC: 12.9 S / 61.3 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW
24H: 2013/10/28 12 UTC: 13.0 S / 59.3 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW
36H: 2013/10/29 00 UTC: 13.0 S / 57.3 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, LOW
48H: 2013/10/29 12 UTC: 12.6 S / 54.5 E, MAX WIND=015 KT, DISSIPATING
60H: 2013/10/30 00 UTC: 12.5 S / 52.2 E, MAX WIND=015 KT, DISSIPATING
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=1.5 CI=2.0
THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS FLUCTUATED DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS AND DOESN'T DISPLAY CURRENTLY A CURVED BAND PATTERN ANY MORE. THE POORLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS ALMOST TOTALLY EXPOSED NORTH-WEST OF THE RESIDUAL CONVECTION. THE LLCC REMAINS DIFFICULT TO BE LOCATED ACCURATELY. (THE LLCC HAS BEEN RELOCATED NEAR 12.6S/64.2E AT 06Z).
THE TRADE INFLOW SUPPLIES THE LOW, BUT THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS WEAK EQUATORWARD. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED AT THE WESTERN EXTREMITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN A MODERATELY SHEAR ENVIRONNEMENT (15-20 KT ACCORDING TO THE LAST CIMSS ANALYSIS). THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARD. ON THIS TRACK, IT IS REACHING LOWER ENERGETIC SST (26AOC).
FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS, THE SYSTEM IS FORECASTED TO TAKE A WESTWARD TRACK UNDER THE STREERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID TROPOSPHERE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE WITH A STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY TO NORTH-WESTERLY WIND-SHEAR ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND NORTHERN EDGE OF A POLAR TROUGH. THE LOWER LAYERS ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN RATHER UNFAVOURABLE WITH A WEAK EQUATORWARD CONVERGENCE AND MARGINAL SST.
ACCORDING TO THESE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN GRADUALLY AND IS FORECASTED TO BE DISSIPATED AT TAU 60.
** WTIO30 FMEE 271222 ***
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/1/20132014
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 1
2.A POSITION 2013/10/27 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.8 S / 63.1 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY THREE DECIMAL
ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 10 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.5/2.0/S 0.0/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1004 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: SE: SW: 190 NW:
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : SHALLOW
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2013/10/28 00 UTC: 12.9 S / 61.3 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW
24H: 2013/10/28 12 UTC: 13.0 S / 59.3 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW
36H: 2013/10/29 00 UTC: 13.0 S / 57.3 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, LOW
48H: 2013/10/29 12 UTC: 12.6 S / 54.5 E, MAX WIND=015 KT, DISSIPATING
60H: 2013/10/30 00 UTC: 12.5 S / 52.2 E, MAX WIND=015 KT, DISSIPATING
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=1.5 CI=2.0
THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS FLUCTUATED DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS AND DOESN'T DISPLAY CURRENTLY A CURVED BAND PATTERN ANY MORE. THE POORLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS ALMOST TOTALLY EXPOSED NORTH-WEST OF THE RESIDUAL CONVECTION. THE LLCC REMAINS DIFFICULT TO BE LOCATED ACCURATELY. (THE LLCC HAS BEEN RELOCATED NEAR 12.6S/64.2E AT 06Z).
THE TRADE INFLOW SUPPLIES THE LOW, BUT THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS WEAK EQUATORWARD. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED AT THE WESTERN EXTREMITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN A MODERATELY SHEAR ENVIRONNEMENT (15-20 KT ACCORDING TO THE LAST CIMSS ANALYSIS). THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARD. ON THIS TRACK, IT IS REACHING LOWER ENERGETIC SST (26AOC).
FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS, THE SYSTEM IS FORECASTED TO TAKE A WESTWARD TRACK UNDER THE STREERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID TROPOSPHERE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE WITH A STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY TO NORTH-WESTERLY WIND-SHEAR ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND NORTHERN EDGE OF A POLAR TROUGH. THE LOWER LAYERS ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN RATHER UNFAVOURABLE WITH A WEAK EQUATORWARD CONVERGENCE AND MARGINAL SST.
ACCORDING TO THESE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN GRADUALLY AND IS FORECASTED TO BE DISSIPATED AT TAU 60.
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- Category 5
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- jaguarjace
- Category 4
- Posts: 975
- Age: 29
- Joined: Sat Jun 11, 2011 7:38 am
- Location: Khon Kaen, Thailand
Re: SIO: Tropical Cyclone 01S
LLCC is exposed.
![Image](http://imageshack.us/a/img842/5175/7up3.jpg)
![Image](http://imageshack.us/a/img842/5175/7up3.jpg)
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Owner of the Tropical Archive YouTube channel
Web Developer at Force Thirteen
Twitter/X : @force13_support
Web Developer at Force Thirteen
Twitter/X : @force13_support
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