ATL: INGRID - Models

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gatorcane
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#481 Postby gatorcane » Sat Sep 14, 2013 3:59 pm

The reason why it is drifting north is because the ridge hasn't built yet over the Southern United States. Now look at 30 hours from now at the 500MB flow and that huge ridge to the north. The hurricane won't go north through that. Not a Texas storm - this is going to Mexico. The NAVGEM is useful to find out where it won't go :)

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Re: Re:

#482 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Sep 14, 2013 4:02 pm

LaBreeze wrote:
crownweather wrote:NAVGEM also landfalls in about 48 hours and loops southward into BOC before coming back north and regenerating into a TS. Makes a 2nd landfall late next week on the Louisiana coast. Gotta love it. :D

How crazy is that?! That NAVGEM is something else.


well considering the navgem is very similar to the EURO I would not discount the solution.
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Re: ATL: INGRID - Models

#483 Postby LaBreeze » Sat Sep 14, 2013 4:06 pm

I'm also hearing about the possibility of a "ghost" of Ingrid hanging out in the BOC after she goes in to Mexico. Anyone else hearing this? :double:
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Re: ATL: INGRID - Models

#484 Postby gatorcane » Sat Sep 14, 2013 4:07 pm

LaBreeze wrote:I'm also hearing about the possibility of a "ghost" of Ingrid hanging out in the BOC after she goes in to Mexico. Anyone else hearing this? :double:

That could be a possibility as I see the ECMWF showing this ghost forming the past several runs. The latest couple of runs of the ECMWF sends that ghost ENE towards Florida. This is being discussed in the Global Model Discussions thread.
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Re: ATL: INGRID - Models

#485 Postby CYCLONE MIKE » Sat Sep 14, 2013 4:09 pm

The NAVGEM is useful to find out where it won't go


Pretty good gatorcane :lol:
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#486 Postby Rgv20 » Sat Sep 14, 2013 4:49 pm

18zGFS came in line with a faster movement of Hurricane Ingrid...making landfall by Monday Morning North of Tampico.

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Re: ATL: INGRID - Models

#487 Postby ROCK » Sat Sep 14, 2013 4:56 pm

gatorcane wrote:
LaBreeze wrote:I'm also hearing about the possibility of a "ghost" of Ingrid hanging out in the BOC after she goes in to Mexico. Anyone else hearing this? :double:

That could be a possibility as I see the ECMWF showing this ghost forming the past several runs. The latest couple of runs of the ECMWF sends that ghost ENE towards Florida. This is being discussed in the Global Model Discussions thread.



the NAVGEM looks just like the EURO except for final landfall. So you are discounting the EURO also?
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#488 Postby Alyono » Sat Sep 14, 2013 5:02 pm

MUCH weaker on the GFS as well
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#489 Postby Rgv20 » Sat Sep 14, 2013 5:28 pm

The 12zCMC is forecasting some serious flooding for NE Mexico just South of the Border. A huge swath of 10+ inches of rain in the next 5 days.

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#490 Postby Rgv20 » Sat Sep 14, 2013 8:06 pm

Spaghetti Models trended a bit north tonight...going to be interesting how much latitude Ingrid gains before making the turn west.

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Re: ATL: INGRID - Models

#491 Postby ROCK » Sat Sep 14, 2013 9:13 pm

18Z NAVGEM redevelops Ingrids leftovers into a TS and it heads towards Texas....BAM!! let it be written let it be done!!! :lol:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_24.png
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Re: ATL: INGRID - Models

#492 Postby ROCK » Sat Sep 14, 2013 9:21 pm

12Z EURO Ensembles means....pretty NAVGEMish if you ask me... :lol:


http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 12!!!step/
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#493 Postby lester » Sat Sep 14, 2013 9:48 pm

THIS ADJUSTMENT PUTS THE NHC FORECAST ABOUT A HALF A DEGREE NORTH
OF THE PREVIOUS ONE BY THE TIME OF LANDFALL...AND FURTHER
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TRACK MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

dun dun dunnnnnn
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#494 Postby BigB0882 » Sat Sep 14, 2013 10:38 pm

This possible loop scenario could be interesting.
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Re: ATL: INGRID - Models

#495 Postby ROCK » Sat Sep 14, 2013 10:43 pm

:uarrow: yes it could be....the 0Z GFS is more south with landfall but turns her around and back into the BOC where she started at 52hrs..... :lol:
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Re:

#496 Postby LaBreeze » Sat Sep 14, 2013 10:44 pm

BigB0882 wrote:This possible loop scenario could be interesting.


Please explain the loop scenario. Thanks. :D
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Re: ATL: INGRID - Models

#497 Postby LaBreeze » Sat Sep 14, 2013 10:45 pm

ROCK wrote:18Z NAVGEM redevelops Ingrids leftovers into a TS and it heads towards Texas....BAM!! let it be written let it be done!!! :lol:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_24.png

Isn't this "leftover" the talked about "ghost" on Ingrid that is expected to shoot off to the NE toward Florida?
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Re: ATL: INGRID - Models

#498 Postby ROCK » Sat Sep 14, 2013 10:46 pm

at 66hr she is back off the coast in Southern BOC....
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Re: ATL: INGRID - Models

#499 Postby ROCK » Sat Sep 14, 2013 10:47 pm

LaBreeze wrote:
ROCK wrote:18Z NAVGEM redevelops Ingrids leftovers into a TS and it heads towards Texas....BAM!! let it be written let it be done!!! :lol:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_24.png

Isn't this "leftover" the talked about "ghost" on Ingrid that is expected to shoot off to the NE toward Florida?




yes this is her.....GFS is showing her in the BOC again at 66hrs...I would be to sure about FL just yet...

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-p ... P&hour=066
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Re: ATL: INGRID - Models

#500 Postby LaBreeze » Sat Sep 14, 2013 10:49 pm

What do you mean, Rock? Do you think that it may turn and hit Mexico again?
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