SIO: INVEST 92S

[supercane4867]

Equivalent of an invest in January at Northern Hemisphere

[Hurricane_Luis]

Wind shear don't look bad. be good if this develops. First name on the list is Amara

[supercane4867]

15kts？lol

92SINVEST.15kts-1010mb-83S-691E

[HURAKAN]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.5S 68.2E, APPROXIMATELY 260 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A LARGE BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED NEAR A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 310013Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THE ORGANIZATION OF THE LLCC HAS BECOME WELL DEFINED BUT THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS STARTED TO BECOME SHEARED FROM THE NORTHEAST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AS DIFFLUENT EASTERLY AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS HINDERED BY MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION ARE ALSO MODERATELY FAVORABLE AT 26 TO 28 DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. DUE TO THE WELL DEFINED NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM AND MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[jaguarjace]

saved loop for yesterday.

[supercane4867]

saved loop for yesterday.

Can you post the link for this floater, thanks

[jaguarjace]

saved loop for yesterday.

Can you post the link for this floater, thanks

Oops i forgot to mention that I made this loop using visible and infrared imagery from the eumetsat website, since SSD has restrictions on receiving meteosat imagery. I emailed SSD and they said they may add southern hemisphere sectors in November or before January.

http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/IPPS/html/MTP/IMAGERY/VIS007/BW/
http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/IPPS/html/MTP/IMAGERY/IR115/BW/

I'll make/post another loop later this evening.

[jaguarjace]

SSD floater for 92S
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/92S/92S_floater.html

[Hurricane_Luis]

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.5S 68.2E,
APPROXIMATELY 260 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A LARGE BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION
LOCATED NEAR A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A
310013Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THE ORGANIZATION OF THE LLCC HAS
BECOME WELL DEFINED BUT THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS STARTED TO BECOME
SHEARED FROM THE NORTHEAST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A
MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AS DIFFLUENT EASTERLY AND POLEWARD
OUTFLOW IS HINDERED BY MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION ARE ALSO MODERATELY FAVORABLE
AT 26 TO 28 DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. DUE TO THE WELL DEFINED NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM
AND MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

[jaguarjace]

Made another RGB loop

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.5S 68.2E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.9S 67.9E, APPROXIMATELY 310 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A WELL
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH PERSISTENT CENTRAL
CONVECTION THAT HAS SHALLOWED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. A 311308Z
TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THE ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM HAS NOT
CHANGED OVER THE PAST TWELVE HOURS AS THE LLCC HAS REMAINED WELL-
DEFINED AND CONVECTION HAS NOT INCREASED. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
REVEALS A INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AS DIFFLUENT EASTERLY
AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS HINDERED BY INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
THAT IS NOW ASSESSED AT MODERATE TO HIGH (20-30 KNOTS) LEVELS. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION ARE ALSO MODERATELY FAVORABLE AT
26 TO 28 DEGREES CELSIUS BUT SHARPLY DECREASE AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS
SOUTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB.
DUE TO THE INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS LOW.

[Spin]

Equivalent of an invest in January at Northern Hemisphere

I'm pretty sure it's an equivalent of a late February/early March invest.

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.9S 67.9E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.8S 67.6E, APPROXIMATELY 350 NM SOUTHWEST OF
DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A DEFINED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION. A
011350Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THE ORGANIZATION OF THE LLCC HAS
STARTED TO ELONGATE AND DEEP CONVECTION HAS SLOWLY DECREASED. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AS
POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS FURTHER BEING HINDERED BY INCREASING VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR THAT IS NOW ASSESSED AT MODERATE TO HIGH (20-30 KNOTS)
LEVELS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION HAVE ALSO BECOME
UNFAVORABLE AS THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED SOUTH INTO COOL (<26 DEGREES
CELSIUS) WATER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15
TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007
MB. DUE TO THE DEFINED NATURE OF THE LLCC BUT DECREASING
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

[Extratropical94]

This is from the RSMC in Reunion:

Convective activity within the The Near Equatorial Trough (NET) is located North of 12S and East of 65E, mainly in relationship with the low 92S monitored South-West of the Chagos.
Low South-West of the Chagos (numbered 92S by the NRL) :
Estimated location of the centre at 1000Z near 10.4S/67.4E, movement Southward at about 6kt. MSLP is estimated at 1006 hPa. Clockwise low level circulation 15/20kt reaching 25/30kt in the southern semi-circle due to the
The low level circulation is now partially exposed north-east of the main convective activity, in relationship with a moderate north-easterly vertical windshear. Low levels convergence is mainly sustained poleward by the the subtropical ridge.
None of the available NWP models deepen this low significantly as it is expected to track globally South to southwestward within the next 3 days.
On this forecast track, vertical environmental conditions are expected to improve tonight, as the low crosses under the upper level ridge axis, but low level inflow is expected in the same time to decrease in relationship with a polar trough moving in its south and as oceanic heat content is expected to become more and more marginal.
There is no other suspect area over the basin.
Development of a tropical depression is not expected for the next 72 hours.

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.6S
67.5E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.