ATL: ERIN - Advisories

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013
1100 PM AST WED AUG 14 2013

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE FAR EAST ATLANTIC...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 23.5W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS OF MAIO...SANTIAGO...
FOGO...AND BRAVA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS OF MAIO...SANTIAGO...FOGO...AND
BRAVA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 23.5 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22
KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE
CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON
THURSDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS ON THURSDAY. STRONGER WINDS ARE LIKELY IN AREAS OF
HIGHER TERRAIN ON THE ISLANDS.

RAINFALL...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL
RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/STEWART



TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013
1100 PM AST WED AUG 14 2013

ASCAT DATA FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING INDICATED THAT THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS AN INNER CORE REGION OF
LIGHT WINDS SURROUNDED BY A BAND OF STRONGER WINDS NEAR 30 KT...BUT
THE CENTER APPEARS SUFFICIENTLY WELL DEFINED TO FIT THE DEFINITION
OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE ONLY T1.0
FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 0000 UTC...BUT GIVEN RECENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS
AND THE OVERALL STRUCTURE...ADVISORIES ARE BEING INITIATED ON
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE.

THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS CONDUCIVE FOR
STRENGTHENING...CHARACTERIZED BY LOW WIND SHEAR...WARM SSTS...AND A
MOIST AIR MASS. THIS ENVIRONMENT...HOWEVER...WILL BECOME A LITTLE
LESS FAVORABLE IN A FEW DAYS WHEN THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REACH
SLIGHTLY COOLER SSTS AND A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. IN ADDITION...
THE DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO BE CUT OFF FROM ITS DEEP MOISTURE
SOURCE TO THE SOUTH IN ABOUT 3 DAYS. THEREFORE...MODEST
STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGH THE
FIRST 48 HOURS WITH SOME WEAKENING BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THIS FORECAST IS VERY NEAR THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.

THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NARROW
MID-LEVEL RIDGE...AND IT HAS AN INITIAL MOTION OF 290/12 KT. THE
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER WEAK FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE TO A
CLOSED MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED SOUTH OF THE AZORES...AND
THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
TRAJECTORY THROUGH THE FIRST 3 DAYS. ONCE WEAKENING BEGINS IN 4 TO
5 DAYS...LOWER-LEVEL FLOW WILL TAKE OVER AND SHOULD STEER THE
SYSTEM ON A MORE WESTERLY TRACK. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFDL
MODEL...WHICH SHOWS A SLOWER AND MORE NORTHERLY SOLUTION...THE
OTHER TRACK MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH 5 DAYS. THE NHC
TRACK FORECAST IS THEREFORE VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS TVCA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0300Z 14.0N 23.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 14.5N 25.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 16/0000Z 15.1N 27.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 16/1200Z 15.7N 30.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 17/0000Z 16.5N 32.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 18/0000Z 17.5N 37.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 19/0000Z 17.5N 41.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 20/0000Z 17.5N 46.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BERG/STEWART

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013
500 AM AST THU AUG 15 2013

...DEPRESSION APPROACHING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AS IT PASSES
SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.4N 25.2W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SW OF BRAVA IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS OF MAIO...SANTIAGO...FOGO...AND
BRAVA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 25.2 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...
26 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION SHOULD MOVE AWAY FROM
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE DEPRESSION IS GETTING
BETTER ORGANIZED...AND IT IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
LATER TODAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS TODAY. STRONGER WINDS ARE LIKELY IN AREAS OF HIGHER
TERRAIN ON THE ISLANDS.

RAINFALL...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL
RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013
500 AM AST THU AUG 15 2013

SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SUGGESTS THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FIVE IS GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED. A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER WITH TOPS
COLDER THAN -80C HAS FORMED NEAR AND TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER...AND
THERE IS OUTER BANDING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE. SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE BELOW TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH...SO THE CYCLONE WILL REMAIN A 30-KT DEPRESSION FOR THIS
ADVISORY. HOWEVER...THIS INTENSITY COULD BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/14. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...AND
THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS WILL STEER THE
CYCLONE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. AFTER THAT...THE
GUIDANCE DIVERGES. THE GFS...THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND THE
CANADIAN MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM TURNING WESTWARD. THE ECMWF...THE
UKMET...AND THE GFDL SHOW A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION...WITH THE CYCLONE MOVING TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. OVERALL...THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS
SHOWN A NORTHWARD SHIFT SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. SINCE THE CYCLONE
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND BE STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW DURING
THIS TIME...THE NEW FORECAST TRACK SHOWS A WESTWARD TURN IN BEST
AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS. WHILE THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE
NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AFTER 48 HR...IT IS WELL TO THE SOUTH
OF THE ECMWF...THE UKMET...THE GFDL...AND THE CONSENSUS MODELS.

THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SOME
STRENGTHENING UNTIL THE SYSTEM REACHES COOLER WATERS IN 48 HR OR
SO. WHILE THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO LEAVE THE COOLER WATERS AFTER
THAT TIME...THE GFS...ECMWF...AND UKMET ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
IT SHOULD ENCOUNTER VERY DRY AIR AND WEAKEN...WITH THESE MODELS
SHOWING THE SYSTEM DEGENERATING TO A TROPICAL WAVE BY 120 HR. THE
NEW INTENSITY FORECAST DOES NOT YET FOLLOW THAT SCENARIO...AS THE
SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS SHOW A STEADY-STATE OR STRENGTHENING SYSTEM.
INSTEAD...THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A SLOW WEAKENING AS A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0900Z 14.4N 25.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 15.0N 27.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 16/0600Z 15.7N 30.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 16/1800Z 16.4N 32.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 17/0600Z 17.2N 35.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 18/0600Z 18.0N 39.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 19/0600Z 18.0N 43.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 20/0600Z 18.0N 48.5W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013
800 AM AST THU AUG 15 2013

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM ERIN WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 25.6W
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM WSW OF BRAVA IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS OF MAIO...SANTIAGO...FOGO...AND
BRAVA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE HAS
STRENGTHENED AND IS NOW TROPICAL STORM ERIN.

AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 25.6 WEST. ERIN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERIN WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STRONGER WINDS ARE LIKELY
IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN ON THE ISLANDS.

RAINFALL...ERIN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2
TO 4 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIN ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013
1100 AM AST THU AUG 15 2013

...ERIN MOVING AWAY FROM THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.4N 26.5W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM WSW OF BRAVA IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES





TROPICAL STORM ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013
1100 AM AST THU AUG 15 2013

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF THE CYCLONE HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS VERY COLD CLOUD
TOPS SITUATED NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER
POSITION...WITH A SMALL BANDING FEATURE EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHWEST.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT IS SUPPORTED BY A BLEND OF THE
LATEST OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES AND A 1102 UTC
ASCAT-A PASS THAT SHOWED WINDS OF 32 KT. ERIN IS EXPECTED TO BE IN
AN ENVIRONMENT THAT SUPPORTS SOME STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WITH SSTS OF 26-27C...LOW SHEAR...AND A MOIST
ENVIRONMENT. BY DAY 3...THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO A DRIER AND
MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN
WEAKENING. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE HWRF SHOW A WEAK OR
DISSIPATING SYSTEM BY DAY 5...HOWEVER THE SHIPS AND LGEM SHOW
LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY OR EVEN STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST LEANS A LITTLE TOWARD THE WEAKER SOLUTION AT DAYS 4 AND 5.

THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT PASS WAS ALSO HELPFUL IN LOCATING THE
CENTER OF ERIN...WHICH IS A LITTLE SOUTH AND WEST OF PREVIOUS
ESTIMATES. BASED ON A SOUTHWESTWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE CENTER
POSITION THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/13. ERIN IS CURRENTLY
BEING STEERED BY A NARROW SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH...AND THE
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS MOTION CONTINUING FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BY DAY 3...THE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE
INCREASES. ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THE GFDL...
GFDL ENSEMBLE MEAN...ECMWF AND UKMET SHOW A NORTHWESTWARD OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. THE FIM...GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND
HWRF ALL SHOW A WESTWARD TRACK...CONSISTENT WITH A SHALLOWER SYSTEM
BEING STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE NHC FORECAST AT DAYS 3
THROUGH 5 CONTINUES TO FOLLOW THIS SOUTHERN CAMP OF MODELS AND IS
LARGELY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/1500Z 14.4N 26.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 15.0N 28.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 15.7N 31.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 17/0000Z 16.7N 33.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 17/1200Z 17.4N 35.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 18/1200Z 18.0N 40.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 19/1200Z 18.0N 44.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 20/1200Z 18.0N 49.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIN ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013
500 PM AST THU AUG 15 2013

...ERIN MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 27.5W
ABOUT 245 MI...390 KM WSW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES




TROPICAL STORM ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013
500 PM AST THU AUG 15 2013

THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN OF ERIN HAS EVOLVED INTO ONE THAT FEATURES
MORE BANDING AWAY FROM THE CENTER AND WARMER CLOUD TOPS NEAR THE
CENTER ITSELF. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT BASED ON THE
LATEST TAFB DVORAK ESTIMATE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST REASONING
REMAINS UNCHANGED. FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE CYCLONE WILL
BE MOVING THROUGH A MOIST LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH SSTS OF
26-27C...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT MODEST STRENGTHENING. LATER IN THE
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SSTS INCREASE...ERIN WILL BE MOVING INTO A DRIER
MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE...AND WEAKENING IS EXPECTED. THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE TO
THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS THROUGH 72 HOURS AND THEN FOLLOWS THE TREND
OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...SHOWING GRADUAL WEAKENING.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/12...AS THE CYCLONE APPEARS TO
HAVE TURNED A BIT TO THE RIGHT DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THERE HAS
BEEN A SIZEABLE NORTHWARD SHIFT IN NEARLY ALL OF THE TRACK MODEL
GUIDANCE THIS CYCLE. THE GLOBAL MODELS NOW SHOW A DEEPER
REPRESENTATION OF ERIN MOVING MORE INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT WILL
BE MEANDERING SOUTH OF THE AZORES. AS A RESULT...THE MODELS SHOW
ERIN GAINING MORE LATITUDE DURING THE FIRST 72 HOURS OR SO. AFTER
THAT...A TURN BACK TOWARD THE LEFT IS SHOWN BY MOST OF THE MODELS
AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS. FOR THIS CYCLE A NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT HAS
BEEN MADE TO THE NHC FORECAST...BUT THE NHC TRACK IS ON THE
SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 3
THROUGH 5. FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY IF THIS
NORTHWARD TREND IN THE GUIDANCE PERSISTS IN FUTURE CYCLES.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/2100Z 15.0N 27.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 15.6N 29.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 16/1800Z 16.7N 32.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 17/0600Z 17.5N 34.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 17/1800Z 18.3N 36.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 18/1800Z 19.0N 40.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 19/1800Z 19.5N 44.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 20/1800Z 20.0N 49.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIN ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013
1100 PM AST THU AUG 15 2013

...ERIN HAS NOT STRENGTHENED YET...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 29.1W
ABOUT 340 MI...550 KM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 29.1 WEST. ERIN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55
KM...MAINLY EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE




TROPICAL STORM ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013
1100 PM AST THU AUG 15 2013

CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH ERIN HAS BEEN ON THE WANE DURING MOST OF
THE EVENING HOURS...ALTHOUGH RECENTLY A SMALL BURST HAS FORMED EAST
OF THE CENTER. MICROWAVE PASSES SUGGEST THE SYSTEM IS NOT WELL
ORGANIZED...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER APPARENTLY WEST OF THE MID-
LEVEL CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 35 KT IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM TAFB. THE OVERALL
ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO SEEMS TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME
STRENGTHENING WITH THE SHEAR FORECAST TO BE LIGHT BUT A LIMITING
FACTOR OF MARGINAL SSTS. IN A FEW DAYS...ALTHOUGH SSTS ARE FORECAST
TO INCREASE...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW AN INCREASE IN SHEAR...WHICH
WOULD FACILITATE RATHER DRY AIR ALOFT ENTRAINING INTO THE CENTRAL
CORE OF ERIN. THUS...THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST SHOWS WEAKENING
AFTER DAY 3...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND
THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE.

MICROWAVE FIXES GIVE AN INITIAL MOTION OF 295/13. THIS GENERAL
COURSE IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE REMAINS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. AFTER THAT
TIME...THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY IS WHETHER A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE
FROM A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
WILL ALLOW THAT TRACK TO CONTINUE. IF THE STORM IS SHALLOW
ENOUGH...IT WILL PROBABLY MISS THE WEAKNESS AND INSTEAD TAKE A MORE
WESTWARD TURN BECAUSE OF A STRONGER LOW-LEVEL RIDGE. ALTHOUGH THE
NEW NHC FORECAST IS SHIFTED NORTHWARD TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...IT IS STILL WELL
TO THE SOUTH OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS
COULD STILL BE NECESSARY IF THIS NORTHWARD TREND IN THE GUIDANCE
PERSISTS IN FUTURE CYCLES.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0300Z 15.5N 29.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 16/1200Z 16.3N 31.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 17/0000Z 17.5N 33.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 17/1200Z 18.6N 35.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 18/0000Z 19.6N 37.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 19/0000Z 20.5N 41.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 20/0000Z 21.5N 46.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 21/0000Z 22.5N 50.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013
500 AM AST FRI AUG 16 2013

ERIN REMAINS DISORGANIZED THIS MORNING...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
PARTLY EXPOSED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE CLUSTER.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM TAFB AND 30 KT FROM
SAB...AND A CIMSS AMSU ESTIMATE NEAT 0400 UTC WAS 31 KT. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/14. ERIN IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY A
LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. THE GLOBAL MODELS
FORECAST THIS RIDGE TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS AS
MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW SOUTH OF THE AZORES MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ERIN WILL
CONTINUE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR 36-48 HR...THEN TURN MORE WESTWARD
AS THE CYCLONE BECOME SHALLOWER AND STEERED MORE BY THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW. SUBSEQUENTLY...THE GFS...UKMET...CANADIAN...AND NAVGEM
MODELS FORECAST A SECOND WEAKNESS TO DEVELOP IN THE RIDGE BETWEEN
50W-60W BY 120 HOURS...WHICH WOULD ALLOW ERIN TO TURN MORE
NORTHWARD. THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS AGAIN SHIFTED TO THE
NORTH...AND THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS LIKEWISE SHIFTED NORTH OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. HOWEVER...THE NEW TRACK IS STILL SOUTH OF THE
MODEL CONSENSUS.

WHILE ERIN IS CURRENTLY IN A LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT...THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY OVER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES OF 25C-26C...AND METEOSAT AIRMASS IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE
CYCLONE IS APPROACHING AN AREA OF DRIER AIR. THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE NOW FORECASTS SHORT-TERM INTENSIFICATION THAN 6 HOURS
AGO...AND THUS THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS REDUCED FROM THAT OF
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. IN THE LONG TERM...AFTER 72 HOURS...ERIN IS
FORECAST TO REACH INCREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...
IT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND
MORE DRY AIR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST IN SHOWING WEAKENING DURING THIS TIME. AN ALTERNATIVE
FORECAST SCENARIO IS THAT ERIN DEGENERATES TO A TROPICAL WAVE
BEFORE 120 HOURS...AS FORECAST BY ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS EXCEPT
THE GFS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0900Z 16.3N 30.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 17.3N 32.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 17/0600Z 18.6N 34.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 17/1800Z 19.6N 36.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 18/0600Z 20.3N 38.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 19/0600Z 21.0N 43.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 20/0600Z 22.5N 47.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 21/0600Z 24.5N 51.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Gustywind]

000
WTNT35 KNHC 160831
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIN ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013
500 AM AST FRI AUG 16 2013

...ERIN MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 30.5W
ABOUT 430 MI...695 KM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 30.5 WEST. ERIN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013
1100 AM AST FRI AUG 16 2013

...ERIN WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 32.1W
ABOUT 540 MI...870 KM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES



TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013
1100 AM AST FRI AUG 16 2013

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT ERIN HAS WEAKENED. THE STRUCTURE OF
THE CYCLONE CONSISTS OF A LOW-LEVEL CLOUD SWIRL WITH A COUPLE OF
SMALL AREAS OF CONVECTION SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. THE DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE FALLEN...AND ERIN IS DOWNGRADED TO A 30-KT
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE OBSERVED WEAKENING IS
LIKELY THE RESULT OF COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND STABLE AIR...
AS SEEN IN THE GOES-R PROVING GROUND AIRMASS PRODUCT. ALTHOUGH ERIN
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER WARMER WATER IN A FEW DAYS...
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE WHILE THE DEPRESSION
REMAINS IN A STABLE ATMOSPHERE. THE NHC INTENSITY PREDICTION CALLS
FOR LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT ERIN COULD DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW OR AN OPEN
TROUGH DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS SUGGESTED BY SOME OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 KT. THIS
GENERAL MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 36 HOURS WHILE THE CYCLONE FEELS SOME INFLUENCE FROM A
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. BETWEEN 36 AND 72 HOURS...LOW-
TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED TO THE
NORTH OF THE SYSTEM...CAUSING A TURN TOWARD THE WEST. BEYOND THAT
TIME...A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS PREDICTED WHEN THE WEAK
CYCLONE MOVES TOWARD ANOTHER WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND CLOSE TO THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/1500Z 16.9N 32.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 17.9N 34.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 17/1200Z 19.1N 36.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 18/0000Z 19.9N 38.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 18/1200Z 20.2N 40.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 19/1200Z 21.1N 44.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 20/1200Z 23.5N 49.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 21/1200Z 25.5N 52.5W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013
500 PM AST FRI AUG 16 2013

...ERIN CHANGES LITTLE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 33.3W
ABOUT 625 MI...1010 KM WNW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES



TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013
500 PM AST FRI AUG 16 2013

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE STRUCTURE OF ERIN THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. THE CLOUD PATTERN CONSISTS OF A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL SWIRL
WITH SMALL PATCHES OF CONVECTION. SINCE THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF
THE CYCLONE HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT
30 KT. THE DEPRESSION CURRENTLY LIES OVER 25-26C WATERS AND IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A FAIRLY STABLE AIRMASS. EVEN THOUGH ERIN WILL BE
MOVING OVER WARMER WATERS IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WHILE THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A
STABLE ATMOSPHERE. THE NHC WIND SPEED FORECAST IS THE SAME AS
BEFORE...AND KEEPS ERIN STEADY STATE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...ERIN COULD
DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW OR AN OPEN TROUGH DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...AS SHOWN BY SOME OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.

ERIN REMAINS ON TRACK...AND IS STILL MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
ABOUT 15 KT. A SLIGHTLY SLOWER MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR
NORTHWEST IS FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE THE DEPRESSION FEELS
SOME INFLUENCE FROM A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A SLIGHT
BEND TO THE LEFT IS PREDICTED ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHEN ERIN LIES
ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS. THEREAFTER...A TURN BACK TO
THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST AS ERIN...OR ITS REMNANTS...MOVES TOWARD
ANOTHER WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS NUDGED
NORTHWARD FOR THIS ADVISORY TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/2100Z 17.7N 33.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 17/0600Z 18.8N 35.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 17/1800Z 19.8N 37.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 18/0600Z 20.4N 39.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 18/1800Z 20.9N 41.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 19/1800Z 22.7N 45.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 20/1800Z 25.0N 50.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 21/1800Z 28.0N 53.5W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIN ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013
1100 PM AST FRI AUG 16 2013

...ERIN IS A TROPICAL STORM AGAIN...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 34.5W
ABOUT 715 MI...1150 KM WNW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


TROPICAL STORM ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013
1100 PM AST FRI AUG 16 2013

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MARKEDLY INCREASED NEAR THE CENTER OF ERIN DURING
THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE ON THE SOUTHWESTERN
EDGE OF A LARGE COLD CLOUD SHIELD...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH A
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. SHIP MGSG6 PASSED NEAR THE CENTER
RECENTLY AND REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 KT. A REVIEW OF THE
HISTORY OF THE SHIP WIND DATA SUGGESTS THE REPORT IS PROBABLY A FEW
KNOTS TOO HIGH...BUT IT EASILY SUPPORTS A 35 KT INITIAL INTENSITY.
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY FLUCTUATE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE
ERIN MOVES OVER MARGINALLY WARM WATERS AND IN A MODERATE SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR BY 36H DUE TO AN INCREASE IN
SHEAR...WHICH WOULD PROMOTE THE MIXING OF VERY DRY AIR ALOFT INTO
THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE. ALTHOUGH THE SSTS NOTABLY INCREASE IN A
FEW DAYS...A COMBINATION OF THE DRY ENVIRONMENT...STRONG SHEAR AND
UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL PROBABLY CAUSE ERIN TO DEGENERATE INTO
A REMNANT LOW BY 96H. THIS SOLUTION IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
RELIABLE GLOBAL MODELS...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THESE MODELS DISSIPATE
THE CYCLONE EVEN EARLIER THAN THE NEW NHC FORECAST.

ERIN APPEARS TO BE MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 14 KT...
ALTHOUGH THE CENTER IS HARDER TO LOCATE NOW DUE TO ALL OF THE
CONVECTION. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED
AS ERIN ENCOUNTERS A REBUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE CYCLONE
SHOULD TURN MORE TO THE LEFT AROUND A STRONGER LOW-LEVEL RIDGE
THROUGH 72H. THEREAFTER...A TURN BACK TO THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST
WHEN ERIN...OR ITS REMNANTS...MOVES TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE.
THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH
36H...THEN IS SHIFTED WESTWARD NEAR A CONSENSUS OF THE UKMET...
GFS...ECMWF...AND FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AFTER THAT
TIME.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0300Z 18.5N 34.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 17/1200Z 19.5N 36.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 18/0000Z 20.2N 38.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 18/1200Z 20.7N 39.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 19/0000Z 21.0N 42.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 20/0000Z 22.0N 47.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 21/0000Z 24.5N 51.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013
500 AM AST SAT AUG 17 2013

THE CENTER OF ERIN IS AT LEAST PARTLY EXPOSED NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN
EDGE OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE CLUSTER DUE TO 15 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...AND THE CONVECTION IS SOMEWHAT FARTHER FROM
THE CENTER THAN 6 HOURS AGO. THERE IS NO RECENT DATA FROM NEAR THE
CENTER...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT...WHICH IS ABOVE
THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/13. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. A GRADUALLY
STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD STEER ERIN GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOUR. THIS SHOULD BE FOLLOWED
BY A TURN MORE TO THE LEFT AROUND A STRONGER LOW-LEVEL RIDGE
THROUGH 72H. THEREAFTER...A TURN BACK TO THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST
WHEN ERIN...OR ITS REMNANTS...MOVES TOWARD A BREAK IN THE RIDGE
BETWEEN 50W-60W. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE
NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF...
UKMET...CANADIAN..AND NAVGEM MODELS. THE TRACK LIES WELL TO THE
LEFT OF THE GFS...WHICH RECURVES ERIN THROUGH THE BREAK IN THE
RIDGE.

ERIN IS CURRENTLY OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 25C-26C. WHILE
THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE CYCLONE OVER WARMER WATER...THE
CYCLONE IS MOVING INTO A VERY DRY MID/UPPER-LEVEL AIR MASS AS SEEN
IN WATER VAPOR AND METEOSAT AIR MASS IMAGERY. IN ADDITION...THE
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST IN CALLING FOR ERIN TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION IN
ABOUT 36 HOURS AND TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 96
HOURS. AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS THAT ERIN DISSIPATES EARLIER
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...AS SHOWN BY ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS
EXCEPT THE GFS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0900Z 18.9N 35.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 17/1800Z 19.7N 37.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 18/0600Z 20.4N 38.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 18/1800Z 20.9N 40.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 19/0600Z 21.4N 43.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 20/0600Z 23.0N 48.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 21/0600Z 25.5N 52.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Gustywind]

000
WTNT35 KNHC 170840
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIN ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013
500 AM AST SAT AUG 17 2013

...ERIN STILL A TROPICAL STORM...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.9N 35.6W
ABOUT 790 MI...1270 KM WNW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 35.6 WEST. ERIN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST TODAY...WITH SOME
WEAKENING EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013
1100 AM AST SAT AUG 17 2013

THE CLOUD PATTERN OF ERIN HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE LAST SEVERAL
HOURS. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS EXPOSED TO THE SOUTH OF AN AREA OF
DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE INITIAL
WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 35 KT...A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS. ERIN IS STILL OVER 25-26C WATERS...AND ALTHOUGH THE
SSTS INCREASE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CONTINUED IMPACT OF
DRY STABLE AIR COMBINED WITH EVEN STRONGER SHEAR SHOULD CAUSE THE
CYCLONE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN. THE NHC FORECAST SHOWS ERIN DEGENERATING
TO A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 4 AND DISSIPATING BY DAY 5...HOWEVER...THIS
CERTAINLY COULD OCCUR SOONER AS SHOWN BY AT LEAST A FEW MODELS.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT ERIN HAS JOGGED TO THE NORTH
DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS. A SMOOTHED INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS
315/10. A TURN TO THE LEFT...OR WEST-NORTHWEST...IS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN LATER TODAY AND PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY WHILE A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM. IF ERIN
SURVIVES BEYOND A FEW DAYS...IT WILL LIKELY TURN BACK TO THE
NORTHWEST TOWARD ANOTHER WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED NORTHWARD...MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
INITIAL POSITION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/1500Z 19.8N 35.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 18/0000Z 20.5N 37.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 18/1200Z 21.1N 39.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 19/0000Z 21.8N 41.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 19/1200Z 22.6N 43.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 20/1200Z 25.0N 47.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 21/1200Z 28.5N 50.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

[Extratropical94]

Nice error at NHC showing no TS winds and a map centered at 0W 0N

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIN ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013
500 PM AST SAT AUG 17 2013

...ERIN MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AS A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.0N 37.0W
ABOUT 920 MI...1480 KM WNW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES





TROPICAL STORM ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013
500 PM AST SAT AUG 17 2013

THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF ERIN CONTINUES TO BE EXPOSED...AND IS
LOCATED SOUTH OF A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT...BUT ERIN SHOULD WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION
SOON IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF SUB-26C WATER AND IN SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR
OF AROUND 15 KT. WHILE THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER SLIGHTLY
WARMER WATERS IN THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS...A DRY STABLE AIRMASS AND
MODERATE SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN EVENTUAL WEAKENING TO A REMNANT
LOW. THE NHC FORECAST SHOWS REMNANT LOW STATUS IN 3 DAYS AND
DISSIPATION AT DAY 4...BUT THIS COULD OCCUR SOONER AS SHOWN BY
SEVERAL MODELS.

ERIN HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS...LIKELY DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYER LOW SOUTH OF
THE AZORES. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT ERIN HAS TURNED BACK
TOWARD THE LEFT...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/11. THE
TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS INSISTENT ON ERIN TURNING BACK TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING TO THE NORTH AND ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW
CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR 24N/49W. IF ERIN SURVIVES LONG ENOUGH...IT
WILL LIKELY TURN BACK TOWARD THE NORTHWEST INTO ANOTHER WEAKNESS IN
THE RIDGE THAT DEVELOPS BY 72 HOURS. THE NHC FORECAST HAS AGAIN
BEEN ADJUSTED NORTHWARD AND IS FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION. THE NHC TRACK LIES
NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND CLOSE TO THE FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/2100Z 21.0N 37.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 18/0600Z 21.5N 38.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 18/1800Z 22.2N 40.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 19/0600Z 23.0N 42.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 19/1800Z 24.0N 45.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 20/1800Z 26.5N 49.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013
1100 PM AST SAT AUG 17 2013

...ERIN WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION AGAIN...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 37.7W
ABOUT 955 MI...1535 KM WNW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES




TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013
1100 PM AST SAT AUG 17 2013

THE LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE OF ERIN HAS RECENTLY DEGRADED WITH THE
CIRCULATION BECOMING ELONGATED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. IN
ADDITION...THE ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION IS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE
CENTER. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 2310 UTC SUGGESTED MAXIMUM WINDS OF
30-35 KT...AND GIVEN THE DECREASING DVORAK ESTIMATES AND THE RECENT
SATELLITE TRENDS...30 KT IS CHOSEN AS THE INTITAL INTENSITY.
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...DRY AIR...AND MARGINAL SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CAUSE ERIN TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHIN
48 HOURS. THE LATEST NHC INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE TREND OF
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS SIMILAR TO THE GLOBAL MODEL
GUIDANCE...WHICH SHOW ERIN DEGENERATING INTO A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE BY 72 HOURS.

ASCAT DATA SUGGEST THE CENTER OF ERIN HAS MOVED WESTWARD DURING THE
PAST FEW HOURS BUT A LONGER-TERM MOTION IS 290/10. A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE REBUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC APPEARS TO HAVE CAUSED
THE LEFTWARD TURN AND SHOULD STEER ERIN ON THIS GENERAL COURSE FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED NOTABLY
SOUTHWARD ON THIS CYCLE...WITH A FEW MODELS EVEN SHOWING A DUE
WESTWARD TRACK. ASSUMING A WEAKER ERIN WOULD BECOME MORE STEERED
BY A STRONGER LOW-LEVEL RIDGE...THE NHC FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE
SOUTH.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0300Z 20.7N 37.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 18/1200Z 21.3N 39.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 19/0000Z 21.9N 41.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 19/1200Z 22.5N 43.6W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 20/0000Z 23.0N 46.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013
500 AM AST SUN AUG 18 2013

THE CLOUD PATTERN OF ERIN CONTINUES TO DETERIORATE WITH THE CYCLONE
ONCE AGAIN DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS
HELD AT 30 KT...IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE EARLIER ASCAT DATA. ERIN IS
ON ITS WAY TO BECOMING A REMNANT LOW...AND THE CONTINUED INFLUENCE
OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...STABLE AIR...AND MARGINAL SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD PROMOTE ITS DEGENERATION TO OCCUR IN 24 TO 36
HOURS...OR EVEN SOONER. ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE REMNANTS
OF ERIN DISSIPATING OVER THE SUBTROPICAL CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITHIN A
FEW DAYS.

SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE THAT ERIN HAS TURNED TO THE LEFT...SINCE
THE CYCLONE HAS BECOME VERTICALLY SHALLOW...AND THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS 280/8 KT. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
UNTIL DISSIPATION. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS AGAIN BEEN ADJUSTED
SOUTHWARD AND IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE TO COME IN
LINE WITH THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0900Z 20.7N 38.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 18/1800Z 21.0N 39.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 19/0600Z 21.4N 41.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 19/1800Z 21.7N 44.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 20/0600Z 22.0N 46.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013
1100 AM AST SUN AUG 18 2013

...ERIN LIKELY TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW SOON...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.5N 39.3W
ABOUT 1050 MI...1690 KM WNW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES



TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013
1100 AM AST SUN AUG 18 2013

ERIN CONSISTS OF A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH A SMALL PATCH OF DEEP
CONVECTION LOCATED OVER 150 N MI NORTH OF THE CENTER...AND THE
CYCLONE HAS BEEN DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION ANYWHERE NEAR THE CENTER
SINCE EARLIER THIS MORNING. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED...
PERHAPS GENEROUSLY...AT 30 KT. THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD REMAIN
HOSTILE TO REGENERATION...WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOWING
PERSISTENTLY STRONG SHEAR AND INCREASINGLY DRY AIR FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW IN 12 TO
24 HOURS...OR SOONER.

ERIN IS MOVING WESTWARD...OR 260/9...WITHIN THE MODERATE LOW-LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. MOST OF THE
TRACK MODELS SHOWS THIS MOTION OR A SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF WESTWARD
MOTION CONTINUING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS JUST A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT ON
THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/1500Z 20.5N 39.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 20.5N 40.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 19/1200Z 20.5N 42.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 20/0000Z 20.5N 44.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 20/1200Z 20.5N 46.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[cycloneye]

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013
500 PM AST SUN AUG 18 2013

ERIN HAS LACKED DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN 120 N MI OF ITS CENTER FOR
OVER 12 HOURS...AND NO LONGER QUALIFIES AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
THEREFORE...ADVISORIES ARE BEING DISCONTINUED AT THIS TIME. THE
SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE INDICATES VERY DRY LOW- TO MID-TROPOSPHERIC AIR
IN THE PATH OF THE REMNANT LOW WHICH SHOULD DISCOURAGE ATTEMPTS AT
REGENERATION.

THE LOW HAS BEEN MOVING SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF WEST...OR 260/7...WITHIN
THE TRADEWIND FLOW. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
UNTIL THE CYCLONE LOSES ITS IDENTITY IN A FEW DAYS. THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND NEAR THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SUITE.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/2100Z 20.4N 39.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 19/0600Z 20.2N 41.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 19/1800Z 20.0N 43.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 20/0600Z 19.7N 45.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 20/1800Z 19.4N 47.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH