CPAC: GIL - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

Interestingly the NHC now has this entering the CPAC as a Tropical Storm.

Not quite. 138.5W is not CPHC AOR, 140 is.

[Cyclenall]

I think they are the two most overused terms with hurricanes. It's really nothing big anyway sans extreme cases. Anyhow, I think they'll go with 70-75 knts at 3z.

I like how you used "sans" there. I agree, but do you think for a Epac hurricane season to be "successful" it needs to have one RI officially? It appears that the NHC has pulled the trigger on that so all we need is a major hurricane now.

not as good now though

It looks like something undercut it from the south, not sure why.

One of the longest remarks I've seen

That's all that this system will be remembered for when its all done.

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072013
200 AM PDT THU AUG 01 2013

IT APPEARS THAT GIL IS NO LONGER RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING. THE
CONVECTIVE CANOPY HAS BECOME QUITE COMPACT WITH NO INDICATION OF AN
EYE...AND OUTER BANDING FEATURES HAVE MORE OR LESS DISSIPATED.
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE HELD STEADY AT T4.5/77 KT FROM TAFB
AND T4.0/65 KT FROM SAB...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 70
KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 285/10 KT DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF A
STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE US/MEXICAN BORDER WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE PACIFIC. GIL WILL BE REACHING A BREAK IN THE
RIDGE IN ABOUT 48 HOURS AND SHOULD HAVE A SLOWER FORWARD MOTION
BETWEEN DAYS 3 AND 5. IT SEEMS THAT GIL HAS NOT BEEN ABLE TO FREE
ITSELF FROM THE ITCZ...WHICH SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE CYCLONE FROM
GAINING MUCH LATITUDE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE
HAS SHIFTED A BIT MORE TO THE SOUTH MAINLY BEYOND 48 HOURS...AND
THE NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THAT TREND.

EVEN THOUGH RAPID INTENSIFICATION APPEARS TO HAVE STOPPED...GIL
STILL HAS THE OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN SOME MORE. DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW FOR A COUPLE MORE DAYS...AND THE
MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK WILL KEEP THE CYCLONE OVER WARMER SSTS.
DESPITE THIS ENVIRONMENT...ALL OF THE GUIDANCE LIMITS ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING WITHIN THE FIRST 24 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT
TIME...THE BIGGEST INHIBITING FACTORS APPEAR TO BE INCREASINGLY
STABLE AIR AROUND THE CYCLONE AND A LESS FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILE.
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS AT THE TOP END OR A LITTLE
HIGHER THAN THE GUIDANCE FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS BUT THEN FOLLOWS A
WEAKENING RATE SIMILAR TO SHIPS...LGEM...AND THE INTENSITY
CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0900Z 14.3N 122.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 01/1800Z 14.6N 124.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 02/0600Z 14.9N 126.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 02/1800Z 15.1N 128.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 03/0600Z 15.3N 130.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 04/0600Z 15.3N 133.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 05/0600Z 15.1N 136.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 06/0600Z 15.0N 140.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[weathernerdguy]

they downed the peak winds from 100 mph to 90 mph

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072013
800 AM PDT THU AUG 01 2013

THE CLOUD PATTERN IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS IT WAS 12 OR 18 HOURS
AGO...AND THE RAGGED EYE THAT WAS BRIEFLY OBSERVED YESTERDAY IS NO
LONGER APPARENT IN CONVENTIONAL OR MICROWAVE IMAGERY. OBJECTIVE
DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM UW-CIMSS AND SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATES FROM TAFB
AND SAB REMAINED UNCHANGED...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 70
KNOTS IN THIS ADVISORY. ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES FOR INTENSIFICATION
APPEAR TO BE DIMINISHING...GIVEN THE PREVAILING LOW SHEAR...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST ALLOWS FOR SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING DURING THE
NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT TIME...WEAKENING IS FORECAST SINCE
COOLER WATERS AND STABLE AIR SHOULD BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH GIL.
THIS IS SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE GUIDANCE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE HWRF MODEL THAT DELAYS THE WEAKENING BY A COUPLE OF DAYS.

GIL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 11 KNOTS...EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE PACIFIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. IT
NOW APPEARS THAT THIS RIDGE WILL BUILD FARTHER WESTWARD...AND THE
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE PREVIOUSLY FORECAST WILL NOT AFFECT THE
MOTION OF GIL TOO MUCH. THIS IS THE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY THE TRACK
MODELS...PRIMARILY THE GFS AND ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS THAT BOTH DEPICT
A WESTWARD-MOVING CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOLLOWS THOSE GLOBAL MODELS...AND IS SIMILAR TO THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/1500Z 14.5N 124.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 14.7N 125.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 02/1200Z 14.9N 127.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 03/0000Z 15.0N 129.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 03/1200Z 15.2N 131.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 04/1200Z 15.0N 134.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 05/1200Z 15.0N 137.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 06/1200Z 15.0N 141.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[RL3AO]

So as usual, it looks like the NHC come out the smart ones and a few of us have our tail between our leg.

[RL3AO]

By the way, I'm disappointed in the lack of fish jokes for a storm named Gil that won't impact land.

[Kingarabian]

Oh the wonders it could do when that ring connects...

[Kingarabian]

[Kingarabian]

[Kingarabian]

01/1800 UTC 14.2N 124.6W T4.5/4.5 GIL

[Yellow Evan]

01/1800 UTC 14.2N 124.6W T4.5/4.5 GIL

4.5 is 77 knts, right?

[WeatherGuesser]

By the way, I'm disappointed in the lack of fish jokes for a storm named Gil that won't impact land.

You think it will flounder?

It is kind of a shrimp too.

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072013
200 PM PDT THU AUG 01 2013

I WAS TEMPTED TO INCREASE THE WINDS TO 75 KNOTS GIVEN THAT THE
SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE BOTH 4.5 ON THE DVORAK
SCALE AT 1800 UTC. SINCE THAT TIME...THE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE
CENTER HAS WARMED UP SIGNIFICANTLY...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
KEPT AT 70 KNOTS.

GIL HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS. THIS MOTION
IS NOW MORE TOWARD THE WEST THAN EARLIER AND IS PROBABLY DUE TO THE
EXPANSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. GLOBAL MODELS NOW BUILD THE
RIDGE EVEN FATHER WEST AND STRONGER THAN BEFORE...KEEPING GIL ON A
STRAIGHT WESTWARD PATH FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. SOME OF THE MODELS
EVEN HINT AT WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. ON THIS BASIS...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST MAINTAINS GIL ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK.

MICROWAVE DATA SHOW SOME INCREASE IN THE EYE OR CENTER DIAMETER.
THIS PERHAPS COULD LEAD TO SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY DURING
THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO DUE TO CHANGES IN THE INNER CORE. THE
CHANGE FOR A WESTWARD TRACK IN THE FORECAST INDICATE THAT THE
HURRICANE WILL REMAIN OVER WARMER WATERS LONGER...AND THE WEAKENING
PROCESS SHOULD BE MORE GRADUAL.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/2100Z 14.3N 125.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 14.3N 126.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 14.5N 128.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 14.5N 130.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 14.5N 132.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 04/1800Z 14.5N 134.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 05/1800Z 14.5N 138.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 06/1800Z 14.5N 141.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Yellow Evan]

I'm a bit surprised they went at 70 when the ACTF said 75.

[Yellow Evan]

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Gil seems to be struggling a bit with dry air entrainment.

[Yellow Evan]

Watch Gil magically intensify at the last minute. It seems like one of those storms that intensify when you least expect it.

[jaguarjace]

Any chance the thing in front of it makes it triplets? Could you imagine the number of posts if this was happening in the Atlantic?

3 areas of interest now.

[Yellow Evan]

Any chance the thing in front of it makes it triplets? Could you imagine the number of posts if this was happening in the Atlantic?

3 areas of interest now.

I wonder what it would have been when there were four canes at a time in 1998 AHS. but keep any comments to the 2013 PHs thread in the talkin' tropics thingy. Anyhow, gil appears to not be getting much stronger, at least for now. When the ATCF comes out, I'm expecting it to stay at 70 knts. Gil's gils are not exactly failing though