ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Off the Carolinas.

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al902013.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201307271740
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 90, 2013, DB, O, 2013072712, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL902013
AL, 90, 2013072618, , BEST, 0, 310N, 747W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2013072700, , BEST, 0, 318N, 747W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2013072706, , BEST, 0, 324N, 746W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2013072712, , BEST, 0, 335N, 739W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWO:

A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED ABOUT 100 MILES EAST
OF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS UNLIKELY BEFORE IT MOVES OVER COLDER WATERS TOMORROW.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE IT MOVES GENERALLY TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

[ninel conde]

at least it has moisture to work with. needs to do something fast though. will be over cooler water soon, though sst's are above normal in its path.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Yeah, I think this is the second "nor'easter" type low that is coming to my region on Monday. Some areas along the coast of the Bay of Fundy, SE Maine to SW New Brunswick, got six inches of rain out of the system from yesterday. We really do not need any more moisture, especially in the sort term.

[cycloneye]

Saved loop.

[artist]

use this thread for model runs and their discussions -

[artist]

Sat Jul 27 14:34:27 EDT 2013
WHXX01 KWBC 271812

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1812 UTC SAT JUL 27 2013

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902013) 20130727 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
130727 1800 130728 0600 130728 1800 130729 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 35.1N 73.1W 38.1N 71.8W 41.1N 69.5W 43.8N 67.6W
BAMD 35.1N 73.1W 38.1N 71.6W 41.9N 69.6W 45.8N 67.5W
BAMM 35.1N 73.1W 38.2N 72.0W 41.8N 70.0W 45.3N 68.4W
LBAR 35.1N 73.1W 38.4N 71.0W 41.9N 68.2W 44.5N 65.3W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 33KTS 41KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 33KTS 33KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
130729 1800 130730 1800 130731 1800 130801 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 46.4N 66.2W 51.3N 63.3W 54.6N 59.3W 55.0N 55.6W
BAMD 49.5N 65.7W 56.4N 62.5W 61.5N 59.7W 64.8N 58.8W
BAMM 48.7N 67.3W 54.7N 65.5W 58.0N 62.1W 59.2N 59.1W
LBAR 45.5N 61.3W 44.1N 53.2W 41.8N 47.6W 36.6N 46.2W
SHIP 41KTS 37KTS 34KTS 22KTS
DSHP 30KTS 30KTS 32KTS 19KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 35.1N LONCUR = 73.1W DIRCUR = 20DEG SPDCUR = 17KT
LATM12 = 32.4N LONM12 = 74.6W DIRM12 = 21DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 31.0N LONM24 = 74.7W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 0NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1013MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

WHXX01 KWBC 270638

CHGHUR

[hurricanekid416]

It may a quick ts it's not looking bad right now

[ROCK]

Agree...if the NHC decides to call it..it looks good right now...very good

[TheStormExpert]

Going by what the NHC said about this feature in their 2pm TWO I feel like this kind of going to be a waste of an invest. Not trying to complain and say it in a bad way though. Still could always suprise us with something.

[TheStormExpert]

Actually looking at the latest Sattelite it sort of look as if it may be able to qualify as something soon.

[SapphireSea]

It's in an area of low shear, good moisture, and probably good instability, it could get it's act together quick before it runs out of room and hits cool SSTs. Worth taking a look at.

[hurricanekid416]

It looks like it has a closed llc imo

[storm4u]

looking good I might have to take a trip to the cape

[galaxy401]

Could be one of those quick tropical storms off New England like those storms in 2011. Has to be quick though.

[StormTracker]

Wow, and a good friend of mine just left here(Miami)worried about Dorian, to Maine for vacation! Is there a floater up yet?

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

After a widespread 5 - 6 inches of rain event yesterday, we certainly do not need this system up here.

[northjaxpro]

After a widespread 5 - 6 inches of rain event yesterday, we certainly do not need this system up here.

Brace yourself because this looks to be headed your way!

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

After a widespread 5 - 6 inches of rain event yesterday, we certainly do not need this system up here.

Brace yourself because this looks to be headed your way!

Indeed, the inlet of the Passamaquoddy Bay behind my house is full up to the bank after 5 inches or rain yesterday and another 2 inches earlier in the week (it actually flooded in a minor fashion during high tide yesterday). I'm rather concerned now about this system.

[StormTracker]

After a widespread 5 - 6 inches of rain event yesterday, we certainly do not need this system up here.

Brace yourself because this looks to be headed your way!

Indeed, the inlet of the Passamaquoddy Bay behind my house is full up to the bank after 5 inches or rain yesterday and another 2 inches earlier in the week (it actually flooded in a minor fashion during high tide yesterday). I'm rather concerned now about this system.

Can it be drained like our Lake O in FL? From the setup it has now, it looks like it will be bringing lots of water with it!