ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

[supercane4867]

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[galaxy401]

Huh? Where is this one?

[jhpigott]

test or for real?

[HurricaneFrances04]

30N 55W

I think the Euro and Canadian tried developing it.

[supercane4867]

Southeast of Bermuda

[Hurricaneman]

All of the sudden things are starting to go off in the Atlantic right on cue. this needs to be watched in Bermuda this weekend

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, I saw that feature a couple of days ago. It has increased in convection, enough for the NHC to tag it an invest. Very interesting indeed.

[Hurricanehink]

For those who might be thinking that it's too far north to develop, I'd like to point out a storm ten years and ten days ago that developed at 30.8N. It was expected to remain a tropical depression, but it became Hurricane Danny.

[artist]

Model runs and discussions for 99l here, please

[HouTXmetro]

Do you all think this could create a weakness for Dorian to escape out to sea?

[Hurricaneman]

Dorian in my opinion would not get turned out by this because I believe that this is far enough ahead and going around the ridge to have the escape close up

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[thetruesms]

Do you all think this could create a weakness for Dorian to escape out to sea?

Theoretically, it's possible, but the idea seems so unlikely as to not really be worth mentioning.

[northjaxpro]

I agree hurricaneman. It is already far enough north and is already approaching the western edge of the ridge. this should move NW and then NW-N very soon and threaten the Canadian maritimes possibly in a few days.

[northjaxpro]

I saw the latest model guidance earlier this morning and it looks as if there is a possibility that a trough may develop across the Eastern CON US this weekend. If this is the case, I think this will create the opening for 99L to move poleward around the western fringes of the ridge in the Atlantic.

[Ptarmigan]

Tropical Depression #5 or even Erin?

[Hammy]

Is this the subtropical low someone mentioned a few days back that the CMC was picking up?

[CrazyC83]

Being in the middle of the ridge, if it develops expect huge pressure mismatches - i.e. a solid storm with pressures well in the 1010s.

[HurrMark]

Tropical Depression #5 or even Erin?

Wouldn't be surprising. There is some kind of circulation, although it may be in the mid levels. Environment seems somewhat favorable. There are usually a few storms that form in this region each year, so this would not be a shocker. No threat to land, probably, but could keep us moving down the list...

[artist]

[TheStormExpert]

Wow! This came out nowhere, the NHC isn't even mentioning it in TWO so I'd say development chances are probably slim.