ATL: BARRY - Post-Tropical

[Dave]

DECODED VDM 12

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 19th day of the month at 20:29Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 308)
Tropical Depression: Number 2 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 12
A. Time of Center Fix: 19th day of the month at 20:21:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 19°37'N 95°03'W (19.6167N 95.05W)
B. Center Fix Location: 179 miles (288 km) to the NW (309°) from Villahermosa, Tabasco, México.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 39kts (~ 44.9mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 36 nautical miles (41 statute miles) to the SW (232°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 318° at 46kts (From the NW at ~ 52.9mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 39 nautical miles (45 statute miles) to the SW (232°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1005mb (29.68 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 393m (1,289ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 396m (1,299ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 24°C (75°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 1,500 feet
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 3 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 47kts (~ 54.1mph) in the quadrant at 2:70
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
MAX FL WIND 47 KT 270/42 19:50:00Z
Scattered convection on west semicircle and outbound to NE

[Aric Dunn]

Satellite says the center may be in the process of relocating farther north.

Recon found 45 knot flight-level, 40 knot surface, and still haven't investigated the SE side where I believe the strongest winds are.

looks like from recon its wobbling around probably do to inner structural changes typically a sign it could be about to deepen.

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 192044
AF308 0102A CYCLONE HDOB 33 20130619
203500 2003N 09433W 9668 00370 0084 +225 +223 128029 030 025 002 01
203530 2004N 09432W 9664 00374 0086 +225 +220 128028 029 025 002 00
203600 2005N 09431W 9663 00375 0086 +225 +221 128027 028 024 001 00
203630 2007N 09430W 9668 00371 0087 +225 +222 127027 028 024 002 01
203700 2008N 09429W 9666 00373 //// +225 //// 123025 027 024 001 01
203730 2009N 09428W 9665 00376 //// +226 //// 124025 026 021 001 01
203800 2010N 09427W 9657 00383 0087 +227 +222 124027 028 022 000 00
203830 2011N 09425W 9664 00375 //// +225 //// 121025 027 023 000 01
203900 2012N 09424W 9665 00374 //// +225 //// 119025 025 022 002 01
203930 2013N 09423W 9663 00377 //// +225 //// 119024 025 022 003 01
204000 2014N 09422W 9667 00373 //// +225 //// 117024 025 022 000 01
204030 2015N 09421W 9661 00378 //// +227 //// 120023 024 021 002 01
204100 2016N 09420W 9667 00373 //// +226 //// 124024 025 021 001 01
204130 2017N 09419W 9666 00374 //// +226 //// 126024 024 023 001 01
204200 2018N 09418W 9662 00378 //// +226 //// 127023 025 024 000 01
204230 2019N 09417W 9667 00375 //// +226 //// 124023 024 026 001 01
204300 2020N 09416W 9669 00373 //// +223 //// 121027 029 027 001 01
204330 2021N 09415W 9663 00378 //// +223 //// 122029 030 026 001 01
204400 2022N 09414W 9662 00380 0090 +226 //// 125028 029 027 003 01
204430 2023N 09412W 9663 00379 //// +224 //// 125027 028 026 005 01
$$
;

[wxman57]

Yep, Barry does look more impressive now. Good thing it won't have too much time over water to strengthen.

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 192054
AF308 0102A CYCLONE HDOB 34 20130619
204500 2025N 09411W 9663 00379 //// +220 //// 122028 028 025 004 01
204530 2026N 09411W 9666 00376 0092 +225 +225 122029 030 023 001 01
204600 2027N 09410W 9666 00378 0093 +225 +224 118030 031 024 001 01
204630 2028N 09409W 9659 00386 0093 +224 +223 116032 032 024 001 01
204700 2030N 09408W 9665 00381 0094 +225 //// 111032 032 021 002 01
204730 2031N 09407W 9663 00382 0093 +224 +223 107033 033 023 001 01
204800 2032N 09406W 9658 00388 0095 +222 +218 112035 035 023 001 00
204830 2033N 09406W 9662 00384 0095 +221 //// 117029 034 025 002 01
204900 2035N 09405W 9671 00375 //// +224 //// 117029 030 024 003 01
204930 2036N 09405W 9660 00386 //// +221 //// 123032 033 023 003 01
205000 2038N 09404W 9665 00381 0096 +224 //// 122031 031 020 004 01
205030 2039N 09403W 9672 00377 0095 +227 //// 122027 031 017 005 05
205100 2040N 09402W 9663 00383 //// +224 //// 114022 024 024 003 01
205130 2041N 09401W 9665 00381 0097 +229 //// 117022 024 023 003 01
205200 2041N 09400W 9667 00380 0098 +227 //// 117022 024 030 009 01
205230 2042N 09358W 9665 00382 0098 +232 +232 108024 027 027 010 00
205300 2043N 09357W 9653 00395 0097 +227 //// 108026 028 026 004 01
205330 2044N 09356W 9672 00377 //// +228 //// 109028 029 029 004 01
205400 2045N 09355W 9662 00387 //// +229 //// 108027 029 028 005 01
205430 2046N 09354W 9666 00384 //// +230 //// 108027 028 028 002 01
$$
;

[Dave]

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 192104
AF308 0102A CYCLONE HDOB 35 20130619
205500 2046N 09352W 9665 00385 //// +230 //// 110028 029 028 000 01
205530 2047N 09351W 9665 00384 //// +229 //// 108027 028 028 002 01
205600 2048N 09350W 9668 00378 //// +230 //// 108028 029 027 001 01
205630 2049N 09349W 9662 00383 //// +230 //// 107028 028 027 001 01
205700 2050N 09348W 9663 00381 //// +230 //// 106028 029 028 000 01
205730 2050N 09346W 9668 00376 //// +230 //// 106028 028 027 001 01
205800 2051N 09345W 9664 00379 //// +230 //// 106029 030 026 001 01
205830 2052N 09344W 9661 00383 0091 +231 +228 106030 031 027 001 00
205900 2053N 09343W 9666 00377 0092 +231 +229 107030 032 027 000 00
205930 2054N 09342W 9663 00381 //// +231 //// 107028 030 024 001 01
210000 2054N 09341W 9664 00381 //// +231 //// 106028 029 024 001 01
210030 2055N 09339W 9662 00383 //// +230 //// 106026 029 023 001 01
210100 2056N 09338W 9665 00381 //// +230 //// 108026 027 023 001 01
210130 2057N 09337W 9663 00382 //// +231 //// 108026 027 022 002 05
210200 2058N 09336W 9661 00385 //// +230 //// 112026 027 019 000 01
210230 2059N 09335W 9581 00452 0090 +224 +223 114031 034 022 001 03
210300 2101N 09335W 9117 00883 0086 +203 +199 121035 036 /// /// 03
210330 2103N 09334W 8669 01319 0086 +175 //// 128035 037 /// /// 05
210400 2104N 09333W 8239 01753 //// +150 //// 128030 033 /// /// 05
210430 2106N 09332W 7842 02173 0083 +132 +117 125030 030 /// /// 03
$$
;

[Dave]

000
URNT11 KNHC 192102
97779 21010 41209 93600 04000 11026 23//8 /0009
41020
RMK AF308 0102A CYCLONE OB 13
SWS = 21 KTS
;

Mission Over...

[MGC]

Not surprised with the upgrade. Barry is looking better by the hour.....MGC

[Hammy]

Will there be another recon mission tonight?

[cycloneye]

Will there be another recon mission tonight?

Very early morning hours as plane departs at 4:15 AM EDT. The question is if plane can reach Barry before it makes landfall.

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 20/1200Z
B. AFXXX 0202A CYCLONE
C. 20/0815Z
D. 19.1N 95.4W
E. 20/1100Z TO 20/1500Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

There's a lot of popcorn convection going on with Barry. Typically a sign of a steadily intensifying cyclone.

[cycloneye]

More stronger.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BARRY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013
700 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

...BARRY A LITTLE STRONGER...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING EXTENDED NORTHWARD...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 95.5W
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

AL, 02, 2013062000, , BEST, 0, 196N, 956W, 40, 1005, TS

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 013.invest

[Alyono]

may have nearly 12 hours over the water. It has really slowed down

50 KT may not be out of the question

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BARRY ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013
1000 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

...BARRY POISED TO BRING HEAVY RAINS TO SOUTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 95.8W
ABOUT 40 MI...60 KM NE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES



TROPICAL STORM BARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013
1000 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

THE CENTER OF BARRY HAS BEEN VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THIS EVENING.
LATE AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE
EARLIER ARICRAFT FIXES SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF A BURST OF CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED AROUND 0000
UTC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS INCREASED TO 40 KT ON THE 0000 UTC
INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...AND WAS BASED ON THE EARLIER AIRCRAFT DATA
AND A 33-KT SUSTAINED WIND OBSERVATION AT SACRIFICE ISLAND...WHICH
AT THE TIME...WAS STILL LOCATED WELL WEST OF THE CENTER AND
STRONGEST WINDS. A FEW OTHER OBSERVING SITES IN THE STATE OF
VERACRUZ HAVE REPORTED WIND GUSTS IN THE 32 TO 38 KT RANGE SINCE
THIS AFTERNOON.

BARRY APPEARS TO BE MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 KT.
THE CYCLONE IS BEING STEERED BY A NARROW RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO...AND A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH LANDFALL. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE
THE CENTER MOVES INLAND THURSDAY MORNING. AFTER LANDFALL
WEAKENING WILL OCCUR...AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO IN A DAY OR SO.

THE MAIN HAZARD ASSOCIATED WITH BARRY WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL
THAT COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES OVER A
LARGE PORTION OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0300Z 19.6N 95.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 20/1200Z 19.6N 96.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
24H 21/0000Z 19.5N 97.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
36H 21/1200Z 19.5N 98.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[Cyclenall]

Glad they used up Barry...that name just didn't do it for me... I also went 18+ storms this year so I am doing well and we are not even out of June!!

Now the question is when will the first hurricane of 2013 North Atlantic season will be classified?

My estimate is June 29th. And I 100% agree ROCK.

SO PLEASE DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT CENTER
LOCATION OF THE CYCLONE.

I can sense a tone of slight annoyance in this sentence. First time I've come across the "so please" phrase in a NHC discussion.

Well I'm very happy this became Barry, getting worried there and more then once too. I'm surprised it got as far north as it did (and slowed down to strengthen), Euro was incorrect and hopefully the King gets its crown thrown off because it shows various elements in the atmosphere I do not want to see at all (like cooler conditions IMBY).

[Sanibel]

Barry got itself together quickly once it got back over water. We had heavy rain yesterday unlike the weak dry rains of recent seasons. Makes me worry this might be a strong season.

[AJC3]

NOUS42 KNHC 201232
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0830 AM EDT THU 20 JUNE 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 21/1100Z TO 22/1100Z JUNE 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-020

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARKS: MISSION SCHEDULED FOR 20/1200Z ON TROPICAL
STORM BARRY CANCELED BY NHC AT 20/0535Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

$$
JWP

[AJC3]

Will there be another recon mission tonight?

Very early morning hours as plane departs at 4:15 AM EDT. The question is if plane can reach Barry before it makes landfall.

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 20/1200Z
B. AFXXX 0202A CYCLONE
C. 20/0815Z
D. 19.1N 95.4W
E. 20/1100Z TO 20/1500Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

Posted this in the recon thread....

NOUS42 KNHC 201232
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0830 AM EDT THU 20 JUNE 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 21/1100Z TO 22/1100Z JUNE 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-020

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARKS: MISSION SCHEDULED FOR 20/1200Z ON TROPICAL
STORM BARRY CANCELED BY NHC AT 20/0535Z.