WPAC: YAGI - Tropical Storm

[euro6208]

Not some but mostly many

Actually I meant Andrea, but it looks better now. I doubt if 98W can really intensify so soon, as JTWC even does not support.

Andrea had a closed circulation when it got named, but this doesn't have one yet

That's because recon penetrated Andrea and found one...We don't have recon but i wouldn't be surprised if this is similiar to Andrea...

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.5N
130.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 129.6E, APPROXIMATELY 560 NM
NORTHWEST OF KOROR. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A BROAD, POORLY-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH AN
EXTENSIVE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE EAST. A 070121Z
METOP-A 89H IMAGE ALSO DEPICTS A DISORGANIZED LLCC WITH FRAGMENTED
CONVECTIVE BANDING AND NO DISCERNIBLE CENTER. A 070122Z ASCAT IMAGE
SHOWS AN ELONGATED, WEAK CIRCULATION WITH 10 TO 15 KNOT WINDS. A
07/00Z SHIP REPORT, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 75 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE
CENTER, INDICATES WINDS 240/07 KNOTS WITH SLP NEAR 1009 MB. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH 15 TO 20 KNOTS
OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. DYNAMIC
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SLOW DEVELOPMENT UNTIL THE SYSTEM TRACKS
NORTH OF 20N (AFTER TAU 36) AND INTENSIFIES AS A SUBTROPICAL LOW.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Agreed Euro, ASCAT imagery shows something out there though.

Here is my latest webcast as well everyone, and by the way I am changing the title to TD from the Map below.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R0lBykWwcIo[/youtube]

[RobWESTPACWX]

The NAVGEM still wants to slam Okinawa by Tuesday.

[Meow]

PAGASA named it Dante.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

JTWC Text on 98W:
WTPN21 PGTW 072230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
205 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.3N 129.0E TO 20.9N 132.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. SYNOPTIC DATA AT
071800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N
130.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.2N
129.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 130.2E, APPROXIMATELY 585 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, JAPAN. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A BROAD, POORLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES EXTENSIVE DEEP CONVECTION
DISPLACED TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE LLCC. A NEARBY 071800Z SHIP
OBSERVATION REPORTED A MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OF 1001 MB WITH 21
KNOT WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST. A 071631Z AMSU-B IMAGE SHOWS
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING AROUND FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE
APPROXIMATE LOCATION OF THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT
THE SYSTEM IS IN A REGION OF LIGHT TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(10-20 KNOTS), BUT IS OFFSET BY STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. DYNAMIC
MODELS SHOW UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT LLCC POSITION AND INDICATE SLOW
DEVELOPMENT UNTIL THE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTH OF 20N (AFTER TAU 24) AND
CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY. ECMWF ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE FURTHER
INDICATES UNCERTAINTY IN THE NORTHWARD TRACK AS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
SHOW A MODERATE SPREAD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND DECREASING
PRESSURE TREND IN THE AREA, THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

[Meow]

I wonder why nobody cares about JMA.



TD
Issued at 04:10 UTC, 8 June 2013

<Analyses at 08/03 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N15°40'(15.7°)
E129°00'(129.0°)
Direction and speed of movement N Slowly
Central pressure 1004hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)

<Forecast for 09/03 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N19°55'(19.9°)
E130°10'(130.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 220km(120NM)

[euro6208]

i think this has enough deep convection and suffient organization to be considered a TD or even a Tropical Storm...


08/0232 UTC 17.6N 128.8E T1.0/1.0 98W -- West Pacific


THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.0N
130.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 129.6E, APPROXIMATELY 525 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, JAPAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AND POORLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH INCREASING DEEP CONVECTION. A 080059Z AMSU-B
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS WEAK AND FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND BROKEN DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION NEAR
THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED
NEAR A POINT SOURCE OF UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE ALLOWING FOR LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (05-10 KNOTS) AND FAVORABLE OUTFLOW. POLEWARD
OUTFLOW IS FURTHER BEING AIDED BY A TUTT CELL LOCATED AT
APPROXIMATELY 15N 155E. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
THIS SYSTEM INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. SEE REF
A (WTPN21 PGTW 072230) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. DUE TO THE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH

[euro6208]

03W.Three showing on the Navy site

Upgrade imminent. Finally

[mrbagyo]

Uploaded with ImageShack.us


When did ssd.noaa started naming storms here in the wpac? it's still a depression based on JMA .

[Meow]

Uploaded with ImageShack.us


When did ssd.noaa started naming storms here in the wpac? it's still a depression based on JMA .

You are wrong.



TS 1303 (YAGI)
Issued at 13:20 UTC, 8 June 2013

<Analyses at 08/12 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N16°50'(16.8°)
E129°05'(129.1°)
Direction and speed of movement N Slowly
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 09/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N19°40'(19.7°)
E130°35'(130.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 994hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 160km(85NM)

<Forecast for 10/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N22°00'(22.0°)
E132°00'(132.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 992hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)

<Forecast for 11/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N25°50'(25.8°)
E133°40'(133.7°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 410km(220NM)

[mrbagyo]

when I posted it's still a depression accdg to JMA... now they already updated it . hahaha

I'm quite interested with the convection( it has an evident circulation a while ago) near Palawan island... PAGASA classified it as another LPA though they kill it immediately

[dexterlabio]

on board with JMA on this one....too good to be a tropical depression. that curved banding around the center makes it look stronger than a TD, not to mention the cold cloud tops near the LLCC...


by the way, looks like that time year for the Philippines has come.. when a cyclone is even far north of Luzon, the islands still get affected by the rains...

[euro6208]

our 3rd tropical cyclone is here!!!



WTPN31 PGTW 081500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/072221Z JUN 13//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (YAGI) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z --- NEAR 17.6N 130.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6N 130.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 19.1N 131.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 20.7N 132.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 22.4N 133.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 24.4N 134.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 29.4N 134.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 33.2N 135.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 35.1N 140.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
081500Z POSITION NEAR 18.0N 130.3E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (YAGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 548 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
081200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 082100Z, 090300Z, 090900Z AND
091500Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 072221Z JUN 13 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 072230).//
NNNN

[Meow]

our 3rd tropical cyclone is here!!!

Dissipating after tracking on the coast of Honshu for one day?

[euro6208]

on board with JMA on this one....too good to be a tropical depression. that curved banding around the center makes it look stronger than a TD, not to mention the cold cloud tops near the LLCC...


by the way, looks like that time year for the Philippines has come.. when a cyclone is even far north of Luzon, the islands still get affected by the rains...

actually both agencies are severely underestimating 03W's intensity...

this actually looks like 55 knots with a solid curved band in the southern semicircle...no way this is only a weak storm...



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the JTWC and JMA products...

[euro6208]

impressive but deadly...

[Meow]

actually both agencies are severely underestimating 03W's intensity...

this actually looks like 55 knots with a solid curved band in the southern semicircle...no way this is only a weak storm...



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the JTWC and JMA products...

The structure is not good enough. That’s why both JMA and JTWC analyse CI2.0, being 35kt and 25kt.

[RobWESTPACWX]

My latest video update on this storm.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jcyJe8-lNKg

Plus the Westpacwx Team has put together a slew of information at this link.

http://www.westernpacificweather.com/cu ... orm-track/

[dexterlabio]

My latest video update on this storm.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jcyJe8-lNKg

Plus the Westpacwx Team has put together a slew of information at this link.

http://www.westernpacificweather.com/cu ... orm-track/

In times like this, I always find your video updates very helpful. GFS has done a great job on this system, and is the most consistent model to show a TC affecting Southern Japan next week.

And I like that you took notice of that area west of PI. Right now NAVGEM isn't alone in showing possible TC formation, as GFS 18z shows TC development, not only with that area but also with the wake of TS Yagi off the Philippine Sea..

Looks like a rainy and stormy weather in store for Asia next week. The MJO could also contribute to that as it's forecast to enter SE Asia next week...