ATL: INVEST 90L

[NDG]

the low itself will likely spin up fast. the shear will be the big inhibitor for the nhc. just north of the ne tip of the yucatan penisula is where its starting develop however i am on my phone sooooo lol

I see nothing but SE and E winds over this area that you are pointing out with the lowest surface pressures still found over the western Yucatan P and the MX State of Tabasco and Campeche.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Im lost. Is there an invest or is there not. Cant find it on NHC site or even on this top page,

[Florida1118]

Im lost. Is there an invest or is there not. Cant find it on NHC site or even on this top page,

90L was deactivated, though they might set up 91L on the AOI in the Caribbean.

[Hurricaneman]

Im lost. Is there an invest or is there not. Cant find it on NHC site or even on this top page,

The invest was cancelled earlier, but the thread is being kept alive until 91L is activated

[cycloneye]

Im lost. Is there an invest or is there not. Cant find it on NHC site or even on this top page,

Invest 90L was deactivated this morning. Now we are waiting to see when Invest 91L will be up or maybe reactivate 90L,but nothing new on that yet. In the meantime we can continue to post here.

[Hurricaneman]

It looks like the old vortex went west out of the BOC into Mexico, but there seems to be a low of some type forming over the center of the Yucatan

[gatorcane]

Graphics below showing tropical cyclone heat potential (TCHP) and SSTs.

SSTs are marginal in the Gulf outside of the loop current so even if the shear weren't a factor, we wouldn't expect this system to get very strong in the Gulf:

[ROCK]

I disagree this cannot reach a strong TS if shear doesn't rip it apart.

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html

The ssts in the GOM are not that marginal?..

[Hurricane Andrew]

I could see a weak TS, say 40-50mph.

[TheStormExpert]

Going by this graphic [via: weather.com] it shows water temps in the GOM warm enough to support tropical development. About 79-82 degrees.

[Dave]

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1005 AM EDT SUN 02 JUNE 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 03/1100Z TO 04/1100Z JUNE 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-002

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST
NEAR 23.5N 87.5W AT 04/1800Z.

[ROCK]

80f and above is ideal but not necessary....I seem to remember some Greek named storms in the North Atlantic a few years back...

[Hurricane Andrew]

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1005 AM EDT SUN 02 JUNE 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 03/1100Z TO 04/1100Z JUNE 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-002

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST
NEAR 23.5N 87.5W AT 04/1800Z.

Dave! Good to see you again!

[Hurricane Andrew]

Look at this: Rotation over Yuc and expanding convection.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/vis-animated.gif

[floridasun78]

so we have 91l? so look like 90l was ex BARBARA?

[cycloneye]

so we have 91l? so look like 90l was ex BARBARA?

First is a no and second is a yes.

[Hurricane Andrew]

What are we looking at for a time when this starts to organize.

[Hurricaneman]

What are we looking at for a time when this starts to organize.

its already starting to organize but it could become an invest tonight or tomorrow if the organization continues

[cycloneye]

The 18z Surface Analysis by TAFB has NEW meaning that they will add at 00z a low pressure near that red x location just off Yucatan's north coast.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Aric Dunn nailed it.