SPAC: HALEY - Tropical Cyclone

[supercane4867]

18.0S 158.8W

[Hurricane_Luis]

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert

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WTPS21 PGTW 091000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.8S 158.2W TO 23.1S 151.6W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
090930Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 18.8S
158.1W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.6S
158.1W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.8S 158.1W, APPROXIMATELY 385 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF BORA BORA, SOCIETY ISLANDS, FRENCH POLYNESIA. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SMALL (APPROXIMATELY 120NM
DIAMETER) CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE INDICATIVE OF A
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 090658Z SSMIS IMAGE
INDICATES TIGHTLY-WRAPPED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
WELL-DEFINED CENTER. A 081926Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWED A SYMMETRIC
CIRCULATION WITH 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED JUST
POLEWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS UNDER WEAK WESTERLY FLOW WITH
WEAK TO MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DESPITE WEAK
BAROCLINICITY AND THE POSITION UNDER THE UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
WESTERLIES, THE SYSTEM HAS RETAINED A DEEP MOISTURE CORE AND A WEAK
WARM CORE, AS INDICATED IN THE LATEST AMSU CROSS-SECTION. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. BASED ON THE
FAVORABLE SST AND CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
101000Z.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

TPPS10 PGTW 091151 COR

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 93P (W OF TAHITI)

B. 09/1123Z

C. 19.9S

D. 156.4W

E. FIVE/GOES15

F. T2.0/2.0 STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. A .35 WRAP ON THE LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDS A DT OF 2.0. PT AGREES. DBO DT. CORRECTED CENTER FIX
POSITION

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
09/0658Z 19.2S 157.4W SSMS
09/0757Z 19.1S 157.2W MMHS
09/0959Z 19.7S 156.9W TRMM


NEWCOMER

[Hurricane Andrew]

Looks nice! Has anything official been issued yet?

[Grifforzer]

Looks nice! Has anything official been issued yet?

yup it was official this morning. Here is the latest advisory. (international marine warnings has winds of 35 knots about 60-120 NM away from the center)

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A2 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 09/2002 UTC 2013 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD14F CENTRE [998HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.9S 155.6W AT 091800 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON GOES VIS/IR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. TD11F MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 14 KNOTS.

OVERALL ORGANISATION AND CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES JUST SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. TD 14F IS BEING STEERED SOUTHEAST BY NORTHWEST DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW.SST AROUND 27 DEGREES CELCIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.4 WRAP ON LOG 10 SPIRAL GIVING DT=2.5, MET=2.0, AND PT=2.5. FT BASED ON DT, THUS YIELDING T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHEAST WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY IN TD14F WILL BE ISSUED AT OR AROUND 100200 UTC.

[cycloneye]

FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.8S 158.2W TO 23.1S 151.6W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
090930Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 18.8S
158.1W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.6S
158.1W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.8S 158.1W, APPROXIMATELY 385 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF BORA BORA, SOCIETY ISLANDS, FRENCH POLYNESIA. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SMALL (APPROXIMATELY 120NM
DIAMETER) CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE INDICATIVE OF A
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 090658Z SSMIS IMAGE
INDICATES TIGHTLY-WRAPPED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
WELL-DEFINED CENTER. A 081926Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWED A SYMMETRIC
CIRCULATION WITH 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED JUST
POLEWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS UNDER WEAK WESTERLY FLOW WITH
WEAK TO MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DESPITE WEAK
BAROCLINICITY AND THE POSITION UNDER THE UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
WESTERLIES, THE SYSTEM HAS RETAINED A DEEP MOISTURE CORE AND A WEAK
WARM CORE, AS INDICATED IN THE LATEST AMSU CROSS-SECTION. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. BASED ON THE
FAVORABLE SST AND CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.

[supercane4867]

TROPICAL CYCLONE HALEY CENTRE 995HPA CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.6
SOUTH 154.1 WEST AT 092300 UTC.
POSITION POOR.
REPEAT POSITION 21.6S 154.1W AT 092300 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 13 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 22.9S 152.0W AT 101100 UTC
AND NEAR 24.0S 150.3W AT 102300 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND
REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE
NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC
AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ.


THIS IS THE FIRST WARNING FOR TC HALEY.

[Hurricane_Luis]

Tropical Cyclone Haley



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[supercane4867]

Short-lived Haley

[euro6208]

WTPS31 PGTW 110300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (HALEY) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (HALEY) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z --- NEAR 24.8S 150.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 24.8S 150.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 25.6S 148.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
110300Z POSITION NEAR 25.0S 149.7W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14P (HALEY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BORA BORA, SOCIETY ISLANDS, FRENCH POLYNESIA, HAS
TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN ELONGATING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT IS FULLY EXPOSED AND VOID OF ANY DEEP
CONVECTION. A 102319Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO REVEALS A GENERAL
UNRAVELING OF THE SYSTEM AND ADDITIONALLY SHOWS DRY AIR ENTRAINING
INTO THE CORE. AN OLDER 101847Z ASCAT 25KM IMAGE ALSO SHOWS SOME
ELONGATION OF THE LLCC AND ONLY INDICATES 40 KNOT CORE WINDS, WHICH,
ALONG WITH FALLING DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES, IS
INDICATIVE OF AN OVERALL WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM. TC 14P HAS TRACKED
INTO AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (24
TO 25 DEGREES CELSIUS) AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THESE
UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD, WHICH WILL DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM BELOW WARNING THRESHOLD IN
THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE
JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 110000Z IS 10 FEET.//
NNNN