WPAC: DAMREY - Typhoon

[Meow]

Located southwest of Minamitorishima.

[mrbagyo]

I saw this system yesterday in satellite loop disorganized, but now, damn! its developing very fast, look at the visible loop, this system is very interesting.

[mrbagyo]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 23.3N 147.8E,
APPROXIMATELY 370 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION PERSISTING AROUND
A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THIS CONVECTION WAS
ORIGINALLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE DIVERGENT, NORTHERN REGION OF A
TROPICAL UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL. HOWEVER, DURING THE
PAST SIX HOURS, A CLOSED LLCC HAS DEVELOPED WITH PERSISTENT
CONVECTION. AS THE ORIGINAL TUTT CELL WEAKENS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
DEEP CONVECTION, ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS
THAT AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS BEGINNING TO BUILD. FURTHERMORE,
THE RECENT DEVELOPMENT OF OVERSHOOTING TOPS SUGGESTS SURFACE-BASED
DEEP CONVECTIVE CELLS NEAR THE LLCC. AMSU CROSS-SECTIONS DO NOT YET
DEPICT A WARM-CORE, BUT CYCLONE PHASE SPACE FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT
THE SYSTEM IS UNDERGOING A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO A WARM-CORE
STRUCTURE. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE VICINITY OF THE SYSTEM
RANGE FROM 29 TO 31C. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.


from cold core to warm core...

[Meow]

It grew so quickly.



TD
Issued at 04:05 UTC, 27 July 2012

<Analyses at 27/03 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N23°35'(23.6°)
E148°00'(148.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 1010hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)

<Forecast for 28/03 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N24°35'(24.6°)
E144°30'(144.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 1004hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 220km(120NM)

[mrbagyo]

now.. its a race between 93w and 95w on who will claim the name Saola

[dexterlabio]

someone thinks fujiwara?

[Meow]

now.. its a race between 93w and 95w on who will claim the name Saola

This grows faster. Besides, if the JMA upgrades those two TDs at the same time, 95W will be Saola, as it is now the TD a.

[Meow]

It looks so beautiful.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Lovely looking system really cranking up fast! Please no Fujiwhara with 93W, I hate it, especially when trying to intercept these storms! I think they're too far away from each other at the moment!

[phwxenthusiast]

i'm quite surprised at how JTWC remains indifferent on this system, keeping it at LOW chance... as noted by JTWC, AMSU is starting to show a warm-core and the CIMSS 850mb vort analysis seems to be getting better compared to yesterday, although lower convergence could be stronger..

we'll probably see a warm anomaly form especially in the lower levels later tonight; and eventually a TS by tomorrow...

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[dexterlabio]

Lovely looking system really cranking up fast! Please no Fujiwhara with 93W, I hate it, especially when trying to intercept these storms! I think they're too far away from each other at the moment!

i also hate it but i know a typhoon hunter hates fujiwara more than I do.

just wondering...some models have been showing 93W to track towards Okinawa and the Ryukyu Islands, but now that 95W developed quicker than we expect and is tracking towards the same area, i think we'll see a different setup this time... whatever tracks these 2 come up with, both have a shot to become pretty strong storms. really high SST's on their path and some low to moderate wind shear would help.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org.

[mrbagyo]

upgraded to medium.

(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 23.3N
147.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 24.3n 147.8E, APPROXIMATELY 375 NM EAST
OF IWO-TO, JAPAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
CONVECTION HAS FURTHER CONSOLIDATED AROUND THE LLCC. THIS CONVECTION
WAS ORIGINALLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE DIVERGENT, NORTHERN REGION OF A
TROPICAL UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL. DURING THE PAST 12
HOURS, A CLOSED LLCC HAS DEVELOPED WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION. AS THE
ORIGINAL TUTT CELL WEAKENS TO THE SOUTH OF THE DEEP CONVECTION,
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT AN UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE IS BEGINNING TO BUILD. FURTHERMORE, THE RECENT
DEVELOPMENT OF OVERSHOOTING TOPS SUGGESTS SURFACE-BASED DEEP
CONVECTIVE CELLS NEAR THE LLCC. AMSU CROSS-SECTIONS DO NOT YET DEPICT
A WARM-CORE, BUT CYCLONE PHASE SPACE FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT THE
SYSTEM IS UNDERGOING A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO A WARM-CORE STRUCTURE.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE VICINITY OF THE SYSTEM RANGE FROM 29
TO 31C. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. IN
VIEW OF THE INCREASED ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

[Meow]

TD
Issued at 13:15 UTC, 27 July 2012

<Analyses at 27/12 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N24°50'(24.8°)
E148°00'(148.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 1008hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)

<Forecast for 28/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N25°10'(25.2°)
E145°20'(145.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 1004hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 220km(120NM)

[euro6208]

Remains MEDIUM

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 24.3N
147.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 147.9E, APPROXIMATELY 360 NM EAST
OF IWO-TO, JAPAN. ANIMATED EIR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION IS BEING SUSTAINED BY A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL FEEDING
INTO A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH CELL TO THE EAST. HOWEVER,
A SERIES OF MICROWAVE IMAGES INCLUDING A 271005Z SSMIS AND A 271108Z
AMSU-B, CLEARLY SHOWS THE CONVECTION IS BEING DISPLACED TO THE EAST,
FULLY EXPOSING THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM
HAS CROSSED INTO THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN ANTICYCLONE IN AN AREA
OF LIGHT TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOT) VWS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

TXPQ26 KNES 271507
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (95W)

B. 27/1432Z

C. 26.2N

D. 147.5E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/AMSU

H. REMARKS... GREATER THAN 2/10 BANDING FOR DT=1.5. MET=1.0 WITH PT=1.5.
FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

27/1108Z 25.6N 147.7E AMSU


...SALEMI

[euro6208]

i must say how surprised on how this developed quickly! such a very very organized system for a system not upgraded...

i don't think JTWC or even JMA uses *Subtropical Storm* as i think this is one of those cases in the atlantic where one develops (receives a name right away) and transitions into a tropical warm core system! ....this is one!



anyways, euro forecasting this system to slowly develop with a possible tropical storm south of japan in a few days...

[Meow]

i don't think JTWC or even JMA uses *Subtropical Storm* as i think this is one of those cases in the atlantic where one develops (receives a name right away) and transitions into a tropical warm core system! ....this is one!

You could take a look at Podul (0717) and Phanfone (0810). They are both severe tropical storms but not recognised by the JTWC, as they were likely subtropical storms.

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 24.3N
147.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 146.6E, APPROXIMATELY 285 NM EAST
OF IWO-TO, JAPAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, WITH DEEP CONVECTION
SHEARED TO THE EAST. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY A SERIES OF MICROWAVE
IMAGES INCLUDING A 271005Z SSMIS AND A 271108Z AMSU-B. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS CROSSED INTO THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF AN ANTICYCLONE IN AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE (10-20
KNOT) VWS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

TXPQ26 KNES 280304
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (95W)

B. 28/0232Z

C. 25.8N

D. 146.5E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. TOO WEAK

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...FT IS BASED ON DT. SYSTEM IS SHEARED BY MORE THAN 2
DEGREES. THIS IS THE LAST BULLETIN UNLESS SYSTEM INTENSIFIES.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SCHWARTZ

[Meow]

TCFA



WTPN21 PGTW 280600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
070 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 25.7N 146.0E TO 26.6N 143.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN
THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
280530Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 25.8N
145.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 146.6E, IS
NOW LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 145.6E, APPROXIMATELY 235 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF
IWO-TO, JAPAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
CONVECTION BEGINNING TO BUILD OVER A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE EAST.
THIS IS ALSO EVIDENT ON A 280301Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE LLCC
HAD BEGUN TO TRACK WESTWARD OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A LOW- TO MID-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED
OVER KYUSHU, JAPAN, HAS ASSUMED STEERING OF THE SYSTEM. THIS NEW
DEVELOPMENT, ALONG WITH A WESTWARD IN-PHASE STORM MOTION, WILL CAUSE
A MORE FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. IN VIEW OF THE IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
290600Z. //
NNNN

[Meow]

TD
Issued at 07:10 UTC, 28 July 2012

<Analyses at 28/06 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N26°00'(26.0°)
E146°35'(146.6°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slowly
Central pressure 1006hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)

<Forecast for 29/06 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N26°40'(26.7°)
E145°20'(145.3°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW Slowly
Central pressure 1004hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 220km(120NM)

[cycloneye]

JMA upgrades to Tropical Storm Damrey.

TS 1210 (DAMREY)
Issued at 13:25 UTC, 28 July 2012
<Analyses at 28/12 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N25°40'(25.7°)
E147°25'(147.4°)
Direction and speed of movement Almost stationary
Central pressure 1004hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more E330km(180NM)
W220km(120NM)

<Forecast for 29/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N26°50'(26.8°)
E145°20'(145.3°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 998hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)

<Forecast for 30/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N27°40'(27.7°)
E142°10'(142.2°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 996hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)

<Forecast for 31/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N28°50'(28.8°)
E137°50'(137.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 996hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)