ATL: BARRY - Post-Tropical

[ozonepete]

the other site of Best Track files is working.

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/

OK this explains why tropicalatlantic.com didnot reflect 93L, and WUnderground did... Thanks for the info

Ouragans, love your avatar.

[ozonepete]

Look at the latest rgb. That convergence zone / inflow band you noted, Aric, is blowing up convection along it and look at the explosion of convection near where we expect the center is forming/consolidating. Wow!

looking at the loop notice the convection right on the coast of the north east side of Honduras its nearly stationary and almost back building to the ese.. meaning the center may actually be plenty offshore where we have been saying it.

Yeah the center is definitely forming well offshore and this has much more of a northerly component at the moment than I thought it would. Once it consolidates I would still think it will go mostly west due to the expansive ridge north of it, but the die is already cast that it will land further north in Belize than we thought.

I'm getting pretty good at locating the center of developing disturbances but I learned it all from you, lol.

[Aric Dunn]

Look at the latest rgb. That convergence zone / inflow band you noted, Aric, is blowing up convection along it and look at the explosion of convection near where we expect the center is forming/consolidating. Wow!

looking at the loop notice the convection right on the coast of the north east side of Honduras its nearly stationary and almost back building to the ese.. meaning the center may actually be plenty offshore where we have been saying it.

Yeah the center is definitely forming well offshore and this has much more of a northerly component at the moment than I thought it would. Once it consolidates I would still think it will go mostly west due to the expansive ridge north of it, but the die is already cast that it will land further north in Belize than we thought.

I'm getting pretty good at locating the center of developing disturbances but I learned it all from you, lol.

haha nice ! just years of doing the weather thing... found im very able to naturally distinguish between the multilayer's of atmospheric motion.

[Hurricaneman]

Look at the latest rgb. That convergence zone / inflow band you noted, Aric, is blowing up convection along it and look at the explosion of convection near where we expect the center is forming/consolidating. Wow!

looking at the loop notice the convection right on the coast of the north east side of Honduras its nearly stationary and almost back building to the ese.. meaning the center may actually be plenty offshore where we have been saying it.

Yeah the center is definitely forming well offshore and this has much more of a northerly component at the moment than I thought it would. Once it consolidates I would still think it will go mostly west due to the expansive ridge north of it, but the die is already cast that it will land further north in Belize than we thought.

I'm getting pretty good at locating the center of developing disturbances but I learned it all from you, lol.

Wouldn't be suprised if it missed Belieze just to the north, but from there I do expect a north of due west direction due to ridging, but theres always a chance its overestimating the ridging especially early in its lifetime but the ridge will hold it in the BOC but where is the difference of a redevelopment to a minimal TS in the BOC and a Hurricane in the BOC so its wait and see

[Aric Dunn]

looking at the loop notice the convection right on the coast of the north east side of Honduras its nearly stationary and almost back building to the ese.. meaning the center may actually be plenty offshore where we have been saying it.

Yeah the center is definitely forming well offshore and this has much more of a northerly component at the moment than I thought it would. Once it consolidates I would still think it will go mostly west due to the expansive ridge north of it, but the die is already cast that it will land further north in Belize than we thought.

I'm getting pretty good at locating the center of developing disturbances but I learned it all from you, lol.

Wouldn't be suprised if it missed Belieze just to the north, but from there I do expect a north of due west direction due to ridging, but theres always a chance its overestimating the ridging especially early in its lifetime but the ridge will hold it in the BOC but where is the difference of a redevelopment to a minimal TS in the BOC and a Hurricane in the BOC so its wait and see

its not that anything is over estimating the ridge... just that its under estimating the dynamics when you get large convective burst that pull and tug vorticities around.

I described what was likely going to happen yesterday in the other thread that the upper divergence was likely going develop a large amount of convection to the north that would pull everything north and it did. large amounts of convection in general have lower pressure than immediate around them thus creating a hole or place for everything to fall into or pulled too.

[ozonepete]

Wouldn't be suprised if it missed Belieze just to the north, but from there I do expect a north of due west direction due to ridging, but theres always a chance its overestimating the ridging especially early in its lifetime but the ridge will hold it in the BOC but where is the difference of a redevelopment to a minimal TS in the BOC and a Hurricane in the BOC so its wait and see

Agree with all you've been saying, including that it could make southern Yucatan. Just my opinion, but I think this will easily make TS and could be a fairly strong one by landfall. Look at the convection exploding so close to where we have identified the COC. This has a lot of potential. Never underestimate developing TCs in this area.

[Hurricane Andrew]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

My first chance for development forecast is 60%. It is close to land, but so organized. Note: That is not 60% in next 48 hours, but 60% overall.

[ouragans]

Ouragans, love your avatar.

thanks , it's a home-made logo for my website http://www.ouragans.com

[Hurricaneman]

I'm just wondering are they sending recon to 93L

[Aric Dunn]

Wouldn't be suprised if it missed Belieze just to the north, but from there I do expect a north of due west direction due to ridging, but theres always a chance its overestimating the ridging especially early in its lifetime but the ridge will hold it in the BOC but where is the difference of a redevelopment to a minimal TS in the BOC and a Hurricane in the BOC so its wait and see

Agree with all you've been saying, including that it could make southern Yucatan. Just my opinion, but I think this will easily make TS and could be a fairly strong one by landfall. Look at the convection exploding so close to where we have identified the COC. This has a lot of potential. Never underestimate developing TCs in this area.

it is going to be a very large area of convection over night check out all the over shooting tops ! bunch of hot towers developing too.

[NDG]

I have not had a chance to look at surface reports but I agree with Aric and some others that it appears that an LLC might be developing offshore.
The outflow and UL winds look amazing for this time of the year.

[ozonepete]

I'm just wondering are they sending recon to 93L

Tentatively scheduled for tomorrow I think, right Luis?

[ozonepete]

it is going to be a very large area of convection over night check out all the over shooting tops ! bunch of hot towers developing too.

I don't remember ever seeing this many overshooting tops in a developing TC like this.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

The maximzed upper-level divergance is centered almost exactly where a low-level circulation seems to be organizing. Maybe a tad farther west.

I'm just wondering are they sending recon to 93L

Tentatively scheduled for tomorrow I think, right Luis?

I'm not Luis but I think he's away the moment. Recon is scheduled to take off at 17z (1pm EDT).

[Aric Dunn]

it is going to be a very large area of convection over night check out all the over shooting tops ! bunch of hot towers developing too.

I don't remember ever seeing this many overshooting tops in a developing TC like this.

well there have been plenty but i remember wilma right here just exploded ... not saying it will be wilma !

and mitch !

[cycloneye]

it is going to be a very large area of convection over night check out all the over shooting tops ! bunch of hot towers developing too.

I don't remember ever seeing this many overshooting tops in a developing TC like this.

well there have been plenty but i remember wilma right here just exploded ... not saying it will be wilma !

and mitch !

And Iris.

[NDG]

Surface pressures are now dropping, something that was not happening earlier today.

Pressure at this buoy is now 3mb lower than 24 hrs ago.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42057

[sunnyday]

Wilma was over that way and turned around and headed east, right? Any chance of that happening here?

[Aric Dunn]

Wilma was over that way and turned around and headed east, right? Any chance of that happening here?

NOPE

[Aric Dunn]

safe to say the initialization of the models are just a little off now lol given the development of the day.....