ATL: BARRY - Post-Tropical

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

My best guess is that we've got a broad mid-level circulation across the northern portion of Honduras, with a developing low-level center just off the coast of the Honduras-Nicaragua border. That's good for 93L because it means it'll miss a good chunk of land.

[ozonepete]

The perfect analog for 93L has to be 2005 Bret, had little time to develop over the BOC but just enough time to become a minimal tropical storm which I think this system may pull off at best

Here's a really good analog. TS Harvey from 2011. I remember how we had long discussions about whether it would get to TS so close to the coast and it did. It did it with the center moving right along the coast in this exact region. Look how similar. The main difference here is that this one will move more WNW instead of west.

[Aric Dunn]

yeah cycloneye the convection off to the appears to drawing.the mlc/llc to it has bit more of northerly component the last several hours it looks like it might be off shore in the next 6 hours or so and ride the coast kr be pulled slightly farther north into the convection over the nw carrib

[ozonepete]

YeaH Aric, I could see the center getting north of the coast tonight and staying over water until Belize. Has a window to make TD or even TS if it moves slowly, but might be moving too fast.

[Aric Dunn]

:uarrow:
YeaH Aric, I could see the center getting north of the coast tonight and staying over water until Belize. Has a window to make TD or even TS if it moves slowly, but might be moving too fast.

If you look at the developing feeder band its quite clear whats happening all that convection that is building to the north of is pulling the low to mid level circ north into it. the llc may end up developing or relocating of sorts in or under this recent burst of convection.

[cycloneye]

Since this morning when 93L was up,there has not been any Best Track positions nor 93L has been on the main NRL site because of a malfunction at the ATCF site. But the other site of Best Track files is working.

AL, 93, 2013061512, , BEST, 0, 125N, 780W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2013061518, , BEST, 0, 130N, 794W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2013061600, , BEST, 0, 134N, 805W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2013061606, , BEST, 0, 137N, 816W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2013061612, , BEST, 0, 141N, 826W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 93, 2013061618, , BEST, 0, 146N, 837W, 20, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST M,

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/

[ozonepete]

:uarrow:
YeaH Aric, I could see the center getting north of the coast tonight and staying over water until Belize. Has a window to make TD or even TS if it moves slowly, but might be moving too fast.

If you look at the developing feeder band its quite clear whats happening all that convection that is building to the north of is pulling the low to mid level circ north into it. the llc may end up developing or relocating of sorts in or under this recent burst of convection.


http://imageshack.us/a/img211/7206/gdl.jpg

Yes, I see it clearly now. I was just going to post an image with a circle almost exactly where you have it. I expect the LLC/MLC to consolidate right in that area. If that happens it has more than enough time (and space) to make TD or TS before hitting Belize. The outflow is really healthy now as well so convection should keep increasing...

[Aric Dunn]

Hey ozonepete... new image in.. right at the end of my red line... but on the new image you see the low level yellow clouds... check out the hook developing.... may be trying to wrap up fast.

run the loop.. at about 16.71° N Longitude= 83.43° W

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

I would not be surprised if it went to 40 or 50 %

[ozonepete]

Aric, I definitely see it, though I have it a little behind you at about 16.2N 83.5W.

Edited the position.

[Aric Dunn]

Aric, I definitely see it, though I have it a little behind you at about 16.2N 83.5W.

Edited the position.

yeah general area.. that coord from the nasa site and my mouse lol and that hook would the nw side of the circ so your coord are prob where a llc may be developing.

[ozonepete]

Actually, with my edited position we basically have it the same. I agree they should go with 50%. This area has a history of producing really fast developers when shear is low. Likely due to the geographic contours and really warm SSTs.

[Aric Dunn]

Actually, with my edited position we basically have it the same. I agree they should go with 50%. This area has a history of producing really fast developers when shear is low. Likely due to the geographic contours and really warm SSTs.

Yeah pretty outflow atm..

[Hurricaneman]

I currently put at least a MLC at 16.34N 83.47W but its probably a loose circulation at the surface if there is one so maybe me, Aric and Ozonepete are all right in the position and its possible that the system is still getting a slight pull to the north by the exiting trough in which this will become a more W track to north of due west

[ozonepete]

Yes, hurricaneman, and I can really see an MLC developing there as well. Here's another image to show the outflow. Pretty impressive. It has what it needs to develop pretty rapidly now.

[ozonepete]

Actually, with my edited position we basically have it the same. I agree they should go with 50%. This area has a history of producing really fast developers when shear is low. Likely due to the geographic contours and really warm SSTs.

Yeah pretty outflow atm..

From that chart it looks like an anti-cyclone may be developing overhead. It's almost there already.

Very impressive for June!

[Hurricaneman]

If this keeps its current organization going, another analog if it gets far enough north could be a weaker version of Alex from 2010, but not as far north in the BOC

[Aric Dunn]

Actually, with my edited position we basically have it the same. I agree they should go with 50%. This area has a history of producing really fast developers when shear is low. Likely due to the geographic contours and really warm SSTs.

Yeah pretty outflow atm..

From that chart it looks like an anti-cyclone may be developing overhead. It's almost there already.

Very impressive for June!

yeah! and pressures are falling in the area around 1006 to 1008

[ozonepete]

Look at the latest rgb. That convergence zone / inflow band you noted, Aric, is blowing up convection along it and look at the explosion of convection near where we expect the center is forming/consolidating. Wow!

[Aric Dunn]

Look at the latest rgb. That convergence zone / inflow band you noted, Aric, is blowing up convection along it and look at the explosion of convection near where we expect the center is forming/consolidating. Wow!

http://i189.photobucket.com/albums/z174/philnyc_2007/satrgb2013-06-162215_zps5cc945bd.jpg

looking at the loop notice the convection right on the coast of the north east side of Honduras its nearly stationary and almost back building to the ese.. meaning the center may actually be plenty offshore where we have been saying it.

[ouragans]

the other site of Best Track files is working.

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/

OK this explains why tropicalatlantic.com didnot reflect 93L, and WUnderground did... Thanks for the info