EPAC: BARBARA - Remnants

[Kingarabian]

Actually it's beginning to develop a nice CDO. Fortunately for Mexico, it doesn't have much time over waters.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022013
200 PM PDT TUE MAY 28 2013

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS NEAR GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 96.5W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SSW OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA TO BOCA DE
PIJIJIAPAN.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA TO BOCA DE PIJIJIAPAN MEXICO.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.5 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H. A
SLIGHTLY FASTER NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO...BRINGING THE CYCLONE TO THE SOUTHEASTERN PACIFIC
COAST OF MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME
A TROPICAL STORM BY TONIGHT.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN OAXACA MEXICO WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES IN SOUTHEASTERN OAXACA.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY...MAKING OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/PASCH


TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022013
200 PM PDT TUE MAY 28 2013

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN MEANDERING NEAR THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAS DEVELOPED A
WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF CIRCULATION. IN ADDITION...DEEP CONVECTION
HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER AND DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS ARE T2.0 FROM TAFB AND T2.5 FROM SAB. THEREFORE...
THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS NOW BEING CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 30 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION OF THE DEPRESSION IS QUITE UNCERTAIN SINCE THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BEEN ILL-DEFINED UP UNTIL NOW...BUT THE BEST
GUESS IS A NORTHWARD DRIFT. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TURN
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS IT FEELS
THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES. THE TRACK FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND
BRINGS THE CYCLONE TO THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 24
HOURS.

THE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR THE
SYSTEM TO STRENGTHEN UNTIL IT MAKES LANDFALL...AND THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS AT THE HIGH END OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. AFTER LANDFALL...STEADY WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AS THE
CYCLONE INTERACTS WITH RUGGED TERRAIN. DUE TO THE LARGE CLOUD FIELD
AND EXPECTED SLOW MOTION...THE BIGGEST HAZARD WILL LIKELY BE HEAVY
RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/2100Z 14.2N 96.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 14.9N 96.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 29/1800Z 16.2N 95.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
36H 30/0600Z 17.6N 95.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 30/1800Z 18.6N 95.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 31/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/PASCH

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

TD Two-E has definitely made huge strides in organization since earlier this afternoon. Its circulation appears much better defined. Still, the NHC's forecast of 50 knots may or may not be realized given the system's close proximity to the coastline of Mexico and relatively large size.

[SouthDadeFish]

I may have jumped the gun a bit by calling this system a TC yesterday, but it definitely looks pretty good now:



I wouldn't be surprised if there were some TS winds somewhere in this thing... I think we will see an upgrade to TS Barbara soon if the current trends in organization continue.

[Hurricaneman]

Wouldn't it be amazing if this became Barbara, made it across the skinny part of Mexico and in the end hitting somewhere in the northern gulf as Barbara

[MGC]

Not surprized at the upgrade as the disturbance has been getting better organized as the day progressed. Should reach TS intensity....interesting forecast track that the NHC has put out.
If it indeed follows this path it could possible cross into the BOC....we shall see.....MGC

[Yellow Evan]

It will be gone before it gets to the Gulf IMO.

[stormywaves]

Mentioned rough terrain so there may not be much left for the BOC

[cycloneye]

Upgraded to TS Barbara

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BARBARA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022013
500 PM PDT TUE MAY 28 2013

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM BARBARA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 96.0W
ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM SSW OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA TO BOCA DE PIJIJIAPAN MEXICO.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E HAS
STRENGTHENED TO TROPICAL STORM BARBARA.

AT 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BARBARA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.0 WEST. BARBARA
HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT IT SHOULD
BEGIN A SLOW NORTHWARD TO NORTH- NORTHEASTWARD MOTION SOON. A
SLIGHTLY FASTER NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO...BRINGING THE CYCLONE TO THE SOUTHEASTERN PACIFIC
COAST OF MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BEFORE
BARBARA REACHES THE COAST OF MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...BARBARA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN OAXACA MEXICO WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES IN SOUTHEASTERN OAXACA.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY...MAKING OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/BEVEN

[Yellow Evan]

Hopefully MX gets little damage from Barbara.

[cycloneye]

Hopefully MX gets little damage from Barbara.

The main threat will be the copius amounts of rain that will fall in a big chunk of Central America and SE Mexico.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Latest microwave pass shows a rapidly organizing inner core.

[vbhoutex]

Latest microwave pass shows a rapidly organizing inner core.

Can you upload a pic or post a link please?

[RL3AO]

I assume he's referring to this one.

[vbhoutex]

It will be gone before it gets to the Gulf IMO.

It may be gone as a circulation but lower pressures and copious moisture will be present. Those are 2 parts of the puzzle needed to kick start something in the BOC or GOM. Not saying it is going to happen, but I sure am going to be watching Barbara until she is gone completely.
Thanks for the pic RL3AO. It does look like it is organizing pretty well.

[Kingarabian]

Pocket of dry air or is that an eye-like feature?

[Kingarabian]

Shouldn't we be getting Recon?

[Hurricaneman]

Pocket of dry air or is that an eye-like feature?

Could be the beginnings of a ragged broken eyewall

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BARBARA ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022013
800 PM PDT TUE MAY 28 2013

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH BARBARA EXPECTED TO
REACH THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO EARLY WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 95.7W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SSW OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA TO BOCA DE PIJIJIAPAN MEXICO.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BARBARA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.7 WEST. BARBARA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H. AN
ACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
12 TO 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF BARBARA
SHOULD REACH THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST TONIGHT
AND ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE CENTER OF BARBARA REACHES THE COAST.
WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER LANDFALL...AND BARBARA SHOULD DISSIPATE
OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO BY THURSDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...BARBARA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN OAXACA MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEASTERN OAXACA.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY...MAKING OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/BEVEN



TROPICAL STORM BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022013
800 PM PDT TUE MAY 28 2013

THE STRUCTURE OF BARBARA HAS IMPROVED DRAMATICALLY SINCE THE LAST
ADVISORY...AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES HAVE EVEN SHOWN AN
EYE-LIKE FEATURE DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. DVORAK ESTIMATES
FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 35 KT AT 0000 UTC...BUT THE SATELLITE
PRESENTATION HAS IMPROVED SUFFICIENTLY SINCE THAT TIME TO START
WITH AN ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 40 KT.

A LITTLE BIT OF RELOCATION OF THE CENTER WAS REQUIRED BASED ON
RECENT SATELLITE DATA...BUT IT APPEARS THAT BARBARA NOW HAS A
MOTION OF 030/3 KT. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD INTO
A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND IT SHOULD BEGIN TO
ACCELERATE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DEEPENS
OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. THE NHC FORECAST TRACK BRINGS THE
CENTER OF BARBARA INLAND ALONG THE SHORE OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
IN 12 TO 24 HOURS.

ANALYSES FROM UW-CIMSS INDICATE THAT BARBARA IS EMBEDDED IN A NARROW
ZONE OF NEGLIGIBLE SHEAR...AND THE CYCLONE IS OVER EXTREMELY WARM
WATER ON THE ORDER OF 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. GIVEN THE CURRENT
STRUCTURE OF BARBARA...ITS RELATIVELY SMALL INNER CORE...AND THE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS...A FAIRLY STEEP INCREASE IN
INTENSITY IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CENTER OF THE STORM REACHES THE
COAST. THE UPDATED NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN THE
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE...FOLLOWING A TREND OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION IN
THE VERY SHORT-TERM...AND BRINGS BARBARA TO 55 KT IN 12 HOURS.
BARBARA COULD GAIN A LITTLE MORE STRENGTH JUST BEFORE REACHING THE
COAST...BUT TIME WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR. QUICK WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED AFTER LANDFALL...AND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION SHOULD
DISSIPATE OVER THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC BY 48 HOURS...IF NOT
SOONER.

DUE TO THE EXPECTED SLOW MOTION OF BARBARA AND ITS REMNANTS...AS
WELL AS THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN IN AND NEAR THE LANDFALL AREA...THE
BIGGEST HAZARD WILL LIKELY BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0300Z 14.5N 95.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 15.3N 95.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 30/0000Z 16.7N 94.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
36H 30/1200Z 17.9N 94.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BERG/BEVEN

[MGC]

Looks like Barbara is getting her act together this evening. Could she RI and make a run at hurricane? Looks like the storm will pass across the narrow part of Central America. Remnants will have to be monitored closely for redevelopment possibility in BOC.....MGC