ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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tailgater
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Dorian Remnants - Discussion

#3501 Postby tailgater » Fri Aug 02, 2013 1:38 pm

Just catching up after my trip to Miami, looks like that eddy earlier east of St. Lucie has fallen apart and is being sucked into the larger gyre east West Palm. If we start seeing pressure falls I'm gonna become a believer in reincarnation of Dorian.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Dorian Remnants - Discussion

#3502 Postby jhpigott » Fri Aug 02, 2013 2:00 pm

tailgater wrote:Just catching up after my trip to Miami, looks like that eddy earlier east of St. Lucie has fallen apart and is being sucked into the larger gyre east West Palm. If we start seeing pressure falls I'm gonna become a believer in reincarnation of Dorian.


Doesn't look like it is going to move any further west. Looks stalled or slight drift to the north. Any chance the trough doesn't pick this up and it just sits of the E coast of FL for a few days?
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#3503 Postby Weatherboy1 » Fri Aug 02, 2013 2:01 pm

To me, this is the best Dorians remains have looked in days and days .. Satellite presentation and winds all indicate a low pressure center that appears to me to be wrapping up. Here in Jupiter, it was bright blue skies and only a few puffy clouds earlier. Now, nasty looking building storm clouds blowing up all around.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Dorian Remnants - Discussion

#3504 Postby wxman57 » Fri Aug 02, 2013 2:04 pm

There may have been a weak swirl of a low center earlier this morning but it appears to have dissipated. Convection is stretching out to the NE now as it begins to interact with the trof to the north.
Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Dorian Remnants - Discussion

#3505 Postby HurricaneDREW92 » Fri Aug 02, 2013 2:07 pm

My Latest Track ,warming up to the trough, wxman57 :wink:
HRS:
12hrs: 30kts
24hrs: 45kts
36hrs: 45kts
48hrs: 40kts
Image

Latest Saved Loop:
Image

Uploaded with ImageShack.us
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Dorian Remnants - Discussion

#3506 Postby tailgater » Fri Aug 02, 2013 2:10 pm

jhpigott wrote:
tailgater wrote:Just catching up after my trip to Miami, looks like that eddy earlier east of St. Lucie has fallen apart and is being sucked into the larger gyre east West Palm. If we start seeing pressure falls I'm gonna become a believer in reincarnation of Dorian.


Doesn't look like it is going to move any further west. Looks stalled or slight drift to the north. Any chance the trough doesn't pick this up and it just sits of the E coast of FL for a few days?

There a chance but only a slight one, Trough to north still looks strong enough but the longer it sits there. shear monster to the north also looks strong.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Dorian Remnants - Discussion

#3507 Postby tailgater » Fri Aug 02, 2013 2:22 pm

Nice radar view out of WPB
http://www.wpbf.com/weather/radar
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Dorian Remnants - Discussion

#3508 Postby mascpa » Fri Aug 02, 2013 2:31 pm

Heavy rain started just a few minutes ago with some healthy gusts every now and then.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Dorian Remnants - Discussion

#3509 Postby wxman57 » Fri Aug 02, 2013 2:58 pm

HurricaneDREW92 wrote:My Latest Track ,warming up to the trough, wxman57 :wink:
HRS:
12hrs: 30kts
24hrs: 45kts
36hrs: 45kts
48hrs: 40kts
http://img41.imageshack.us/img41/5487/fs9g.png

Latest Saved Loop:
http://img203.imageshack.us/img203/720/6rf.gif

Uploaded with ImageShack.us


Better, except that it won't likely be a TS.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Dorian Remnants - Discussion

#3510 Postby ronjon » Fri Aug 02, 2013 2:59 pm

Coming together nicely on RADAR. might be a TD later tonite.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=MLB&loop=yes
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#3511 Postby hurricanekid416 » Fri Aug 02, 2013 3:10 pm

I think the llc has moved under the convection
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Dorian Remnants - Discussion

#3512 Postby wxman57 » Fri Aug 02, 2013 3:31 pm

It IS looking a little more impressive on satellite in the past few images. I still say it's not Dorian's remnants, and I would bet that if NHC called it Dorian again that there would be quite a discussion at next year's AMS tropical conference in San Diego. Have an ASCAT shot from this morning showing a weak LLC with 5-15kt winds most areas and a patch of 25kt winds in convection:

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Dorian Remnants - Discussion

#3513 Postby stormhunter7 » Fri Aug 02, 2013 3:32 pm

Data appears to be close to showing this a TD with a closed coc... if not a TS? Bouy and Ship data... and radar data. Wonder what the RI index is like right now?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Dorian Remnants - Discussion

#3514 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Aug 02, 2013 3:32 pm

ronjon wrote:Coming together nicely on RADAR. might be a TD later tonite.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=MLB&loop=yes

Looks can be deceiving, especially with this system.
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#3515 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Aug 02, 2013 4:05 pm

So if this does somehow manage to regenerate into a TS would it be Dorian or Erin?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Dorian Remnants - Discussion

#3516 Postby HurricaneDREW92 » Fri Aug 02, 2013 4:16 pm

wxman57 wrote:
HurricaneDREW92 wrote:My Latest Track ,warming up to the trough, wxman57 :wink:
HRS:
12hrs: 30kts
24hrs: 45kts
36hrs: 45kts
48hrs: 40kts
http://img41.imageshack.us/img41/5487/fs9g.png

Latest Saved Loop:
http://img203.imageshack.us/img203/720/6rf.gif

Uploaded with ImageShack.us


Better, except that it won't likely be a TS.

Haha, kay we will see. :P
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Dorian Remnants - Discussion

#3517 Postby ninel conde » Fri Aug 02, 2013 4:23 pm

stormhunter7 wrote:Data appears to be close to showing this a TD with a closed coc... if not a TS? Bouy and Ship data... and radar data. Wonder what the RI index is like right now?


RI? lets not get carried away. it does look ok and may be a TS tomorrow.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Dorian Remnants - Discussion

#3518 Postby tolakram » Fri Aug 02, 2013 4:41 pm

Latest visible is looking good. Like so many times before.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=7

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Dorian Remnants - Discussion

#3519 Postby tolakram » Fri Aug 02, 2013 4:43 pm

If you look at the loop above, 50kts of shear visible just to the north, which is probably why it's been given a low chance to develop. Even if it is making progress that progress should be chopped off soon. IMO

Pressure falling again at this buoy: http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41009
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Dorian Remnants - Discussion

#3520 Postby stormhunter7 » Fri Aug 02, 2013 4:47 pm

lots of ships in the area... so we should get a good pressure and wind field data from most of the ships. http://www.marinetraffic.com
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