CPAC: FLOSSIE - Post-Tropical

[CrazyC83]

Given that ASCAT pass near miss and earlier organization, I'm guessing it was 60 kt this morning (Hawaiian time).

[Kingarabian]

Given that ASCAT pass near miss and earlier organization, I'm guessing it was 60 kt this morning (Hawaiian time).

And that Pinhole eye.

[Yellow Evan]

Given that ASCAT pass near miss and earlier organization, I'm guessing it was 60 kt this morning (Hawaiian time).

And that Pinhole eye.

It was not a real pinhole eye.

[Yellow Evan]

WTPA31 PHFO 290553
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP062013
800 PM HST SUN JUL 28 2013

...FLOSSIE CONTINUES TO BEAR DOWN ON THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM HST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 151.0W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
*HAWAII COUNTY
*MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI...MOLOKAI...LANAI AND
KAHOOLAWE
*OAHU

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
*KAUAI AND NIIHAU

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS FROM BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN HONOLULU.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM HST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 151.0 WEST. FLOSSIE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE BIG
ISLAND LATE TONIGHT...MAUI COUNTY MONDAY MORNING AND OAHU MONDAY
NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON KAUAI AND NIIHAU
MONDAY NIGHT...LASTING INTO TUESDAY.

RAINFALL...HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AS EARLY AS MONDAY
MORNING OVER HAWAII COUNTY AND MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER MAUI COUNTY...
WITH HEAVY RAIN SPREADING TO OAHU BY MONDAY NIGHT. FLOSSIE IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES OVER
THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI COUNTY...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15
INCHES POSSIBLE...MAINLY WINDWARD. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER OAHU...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES
POSSIBLE...MAINLY WINDWARD. THIS RAINFALL COULD CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS.

SURF...DANGEROUSLY HIGH SURF IS STARTING TO HAMMER EAST FACING
SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND. SURF WILL BUILD OVERNIGHT...WITH THE
LARGEST SURF EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE BIG SURF MAY CAUSE
COASTAL ROAD CLOSURES...EVEN BEFORE THE STORM ARRIVES. PLEASE SEE
THE LATEST HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO
YOUR AREA.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER DONALDSON

[Kingarabian]

Warmed considerably.

[AFWeather]

In the last 2 or 3 frames she looks to be decaying as much as we've seen. At this point, wondering if any rain or tropical storm force winds will occur on Oahu at all. A bump back to the north would change the thinking on that considerably of course.

[supercane4867]

Hawaii shield winning

[Yellow Evan]

Hawaii shield winning

Finally starting to collapse. Amazing it's made it this far though.

[Stormtrackerjoe]

At the moment it seems to have lost a lot of its deep convection. Could be a cyclical thing though. Remains to be seen how the volcanoes of Mauna Loa and Mauna Kea will disrupt the circulation. They are about 14,000 feet ASL.

[Stormtrackerjoe]

Although weaker, still some convection trying to fire on the NE quadrant of Tropical Storm Flossie, nearing the Big Island of Hawaii

Wouldn't write this one off just yet....



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[Kingarabian]

[Kingarabian]

WTPA41 PHFO 290904
TCDCP1

TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP062013
1100 PM HST SUN JUL 28 2013

SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS FROM PHFO...JTWC AND SAB ALL HAD FINAL
T-NUMBERS OF 2.5 AND CURRENT INTENSITIES OF 3.0. GOES SATELLITE
IMAGERY OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS HAS SHOWN A STEADY DECREASE IN COLD
CLOUD TOPS NEAR THE CENTER OF FLOSSIE. THIS TREND HAS CONTINUED
SINCE 0600 UTC AND THE LATEST IMAGERY SEEMS TO BE SHOWING AN EXPOSED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER EMERGING SOUTH OF THE REMAINING COLD
CLOUD TOPS. IT APPEARS THE CENTER MAY BE SOUTHWEST OF THE POSITIONS
FROM THE SYNOPTIC TIME DVORAK FIXES AND THE 0600 UTC BULLETIN
POSITIONS REFLECT THIS.

FLOSSIE CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...WITH DRY
AIR ALOFT AND NORTHERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN ANTICYCLONE ALOFT
NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. WITH NO DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING NEAR THE
CENTER OF THE SYSTEM...CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED.

TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED IN THE SHORT TERM...SHOWING
FLOSSIE NEAR THE BIG ISLAND MONDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE THEN SHOWS THE
TRACK SHIFTING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST AS THE ANTICYCLONE ALOFT
SHIFTS EAST AND THE STEERING FLOW SHIFTS OUT OF THE EAST SOUTHEAST.

ONE FACTOR WHICH REMAINS UNCERTAIN IS THE IMPACT OF FLOSSIE MOVING
NEAR...OR PERHAPS DIRECTLY OVER...THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE BIG ISLAND
OF HAWAII. HOWEVER...WE EXPECT FLOSSIE TO BE A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM AT
THAT POINT.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0900Z 19.2N 152.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 29/1800Z 19.4N 154.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 30/0600Z 20.0N 158.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 30/1800Z 20.2N 161.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 31/0600Z 20.5N 164.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
72H 01/0600Z 22.0N 171.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
96H 02/0600Z 22.5N 176.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER DONALDSON

[RobWESTPACWX]

My goodness, it just pooped out the past few hours. I agree with not writing it off. Although vast improvement as far as the impacts on the big island. Poor Cantore flew all the way out there to get ahead of this one and really. I dont see much of a show in store for him.

[ninel conde]

its amazing flossie got as far as it did without the help of an el nino. GFS shows another threat next week.

[senorpepr]

Here's my latest video update on Flossie... not much left here, but still a threat to Hawaii. Flash floods, mudslides, and high surf be troublesome for Monday into Tuesday.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UCDOUDk12js[/youtube]

[ninel conde]

Here's my latest video update on Flossie... not much left here, but still a threat to Hawaii. Flash floods, mudslides, and high surf be troublesome for Monday into Tuesday.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UCDOUDk12js[/youtube]

yea, those high mountains will squeeze out alot of rain.

[tolakram]

Live IR view is working again. Holding onto some convection.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

WV Loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

[Yellow Evan]

WTPA31 PHFO 291154
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 18A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP062013
200 AM HST MON JUL 29 2013

...FLOSSIE CONTINUES TO BEAR DOWN ON THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...

SUMMARY OF 200 AM HST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 152.5W
ABOUT 165 MI...320 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 370 MI...650 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
*HAWAII COUNTY
*MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI...MOLOKAI...LANAI AND
KAHOOLAWE
*OAHU

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
*KAUAI AND NIIHAU

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN
HONOLULU.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM HST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 152.5 WEST. FLOSSIE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...28 KM/H. THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR NEXT 12 HOURS WITH A SLIGHT TURN TO THE
WEST NORTHWEST AFTER THAT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 MILES...160 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE BIG
ISLAND THIS MORNING...MAUI COUNTY BY LATE MORNING AND OAHU TONIGHT.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON KAUAI AND NIIHAU
TONIGHT.

RAINFALL...HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THIS MORNING OVER
HAWAII COUNTY AND THIS AFTERNOON OVER MAUI COUNTY...WITH HEAVY RAIN
SPREADING TO OAHU TONIGHT. FLOSSIE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES OVER THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI
COUNTY...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE...
MAINLY WINDWARD. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER OAHU...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE...
MAINLY WINDWARD. THIS RAINFALL COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

SURF...DANGEROUSLY HIGH SURF IS HAMMERING EAST FACING SHORES OF THE
BIG ISLAND. SURF WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THIS MORNING WITH THE
LARGEST SURF CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY. THE BIG SURF MAY CAUSE
COASTAL ROAD CLOSURES...EVEN BEFORE THE STORM ARRIVES. PLEASE SEE
THE LATEST HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO
YOUR AREA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER DONALDSON

[Yellow Evan]

Convection re-firing slightly (again). Boy, Flossie won't quit.

[Yellow Evan]

Bad news. Disco not out, but look at the new track cone.