ATL: ERIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Gustywind]

SSD Floater is up

Thanks Cycloneye. Very good news . We can monitor closely 93L as it tracks on the Atlantic Ocean.

[gatorcane]

SSD Floater is up

Thanks Cycloneye. Very good news . We can monitor closely 93L as it tracks on the Atlantic Ocean.

Reminds me alot of Dorian in its seminal stages. Lots of convection and a nice environment near Africa.

Probably not so much so once it gets further west this weekend, as the NHC has mentioned in its outlook.

[Gustywind]

SSD Floater is up

Thanks Cycloneye. Very good news . We can monitor closely 93L as it tracks on the Atlantic Ocean.

Reminds me alot of Dorian in its seminal stages. Lots of convection and a nice environment near Africa.

Right Gatorcane and ... now we're on the verge of entering mid August. Maybe more options in store for 93L?!, time will tell.
Let's see if the "story" of the SAL and the dry air will not act against this little puppy.

[cycloneye]

Circulation is clearly there.

[ozonepete]

:uarrow: Hi Gusty. I think you have the wrong Outlook there. It's not 10% anymore, it's 20%/30% as Luis posted. Did you put the wrong one in?

Hi my friend I don't think so, unless i'w wrong . You say wrong "Outlook", heu you mean... TWD, because i posted the latest tropical weather discussion

Here is the link related to the latest TWD of the NHC : http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... WDAT.shtml?
You can cleary read it and see that i posted the same.

Ozonepete, maybe they make a mistake ... they surely forgot to mention that the probabilities have pop to 20% as the TWO (Tropical Weather Outlook) says 20%

Not to worry my friend. You are right. They don't have the two statements coordinated yet.

[TheStormExpert]

If this ends up developing I hope it doesn't end up being another Dorian type storm.

[toad strangler]

If this ends up developing I hope it doesn't end up being another Dorian type storm.

I would hope mods in this place police posts like this. I am a newbie here but yikes.

Generally there should never be much anticipation over Cape Verde systems. They either fish or fizzle more than 90% of the time.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

If this ends up developing I hope it doesn't end up being another Dorian type storm.

Rather a Dorian than a Hugo any day. I hate to see people get hurt.

[TheStormExpert]

If this ends up developing I hope it doesn't end up being another Dorian type storm.

Rather a Dorian than a Hugo any day. I hate to see people get hurt.

Of course, but Dorian was a pain to track overall.

[tolakram]

If this ends up developing I hope it doesn't end up being another Dorian type storm.

I would hope mods in this place police posts like this. I am a newbie here but yikes.

Generally there should never be much anticipation over Cape Verde systems. They either fish or fizzle more than 90% of the time.

I don't see any indication that he wants a storm to hit anyone. I know I would like to see a nice strong storm that recurves without hitting anyone. That would be a storm not like Dorian.

[toad strangler]

If this ends up developing I hope it doesn't end up being another Dorian type storm.

I would hope mods in this place police posts like this. I am a newbie here but yikes.

Generally there should never be much anticipation over Cape Verde systems. They either fish or fizzle more than 90% of the time.

I don't see any indication that he wants a storm to hit anyone. I know I would like to see a nice strong storm that recurves without hitting anyone. That would be a storm not like Dorian.

thx. I was more pointing out that "hoping" of any kind in a storm discussion thread is pretty bush league. Maybe I'm too harsh but these storms will do what they do regardless of any hoping, wishing, rooting, etc. This kind of banter ruins and clogs threads IMO. Maybe this forum is not for me. I will stay quiet until I figure it out.

[BigB0882]

This is the discussion thread.

Dorian was the most aggravating TC in recent memory. I would like to see a strong hurricane with an eye. Of course, I don't want anyone to get hurt so I hope it stays out at sea.

I still can't believe we were wondering if anything would even happen in August and suddenly we have 2 invests. Not saying it means anything, nothing has formed yet, but it reminds us all how quickly things can turn around at this time of year.

[TheStormExpert]

On average a typical August should see 3 storms so if 92L and 93L both develop in the coming days we would be about on track for an average August in terms of number of storms assuming we could squeeze a third one out. Sorry if this is too off topic.

[ozonepete]

If this ends up developing I hope it doesn't end up being another Dorian type storm.

I would hope mods in this place police posts like this. I am a newbie here but yikes.

Generally there should never be much anticipation over Cape Verde systems. They either fish or fizzle more than 90% of the time.

I don't want to get into the "hope debate". But your statement that Cape Verde systems either "fish or fizzle more than 90% of the time" is not correct on the face of it. It depends on the time of year. In August and September the percentage that develop into a TC and affect land somewhere can be much higher, especially in active seasons.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

If this ends up developing I hope it doesn't end up being another Dorian type storm.

I would hope mods in this place police posts like this. I am a newbie here but yikes.

Generally there should never be much anticipation over Cape Verde systems. They either fish or fizzle more than 90% of the time.

I don't see any indication that he wants a storm to hit anyone. I know I would like to see a nice strong storm that recurves without hitting anyone. That would be a storm not like Dorian.

True, often though I think we forget in our zeal (if for only a short while) how dangerous these systems can sometimes be.

Now I feel the fate of future Erin or Fernand depends heavily on how much ridging is in place north of the Islands as it passes by. If there is to little ridging it'll be a fish, to much and it could be a threat to the mainland. Another eventual factor during the long range maybe the semi-permanent East Coast troughs that have been hanging around since May. One of these could very easily scoop the system up and drive it north either out to sea or into the Eastern Seaboard time, and the orientation of the trough, will tell.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cycloneye]

It all hinges about timing,timing,timing of all the features like orientation and how strong the High Pressures are,the Upper Troughs,Upper Level Shear,how much or less dry air will be and if there will be or not screaming trade winds to cause 93L to first develop and second where it will track and how slow,average or fast it will move.

[SFLcane]

Not much to see on the GFS developes the wave but weakens it rather quickly as it heads westward likely into a more stable airmass and cooler ssts.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT WED AUG 14 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...THE LOW WILL BE MOVING TOWARD
COOLER WATER AND DRIER AIR...WHICH COULD LIMIT DEVELOPMENT. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. INTERESTS IN THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

[ravyrn]

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...THE LOW WILL BE MOVING TOWARD
COOLER WATER AND DRIER AIR...WHICH COULD LIMIT DEVELOPMENT. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

This TWO says exactly what some of you have already said. I'm inclined to agree. It will likely develop into a ts and then struggle much like Dorian once it reaches the mid atlantic. I think TropicalAnalystwx13's earlier analysis of the storm's potential nailed it.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[southerngale]

thx. I was more pointing out that "hoping" of any kind in a storm discussion thread is pretty bush league. Maybe I'm too harsh but these storms will do what they do regardless of any hoping, wishing, rooting, etc. This kind of banter ruins and clogs threads IMO. Maybe this forum is not for me. I will stay quiet until I figure it out.

That may be a good idea. While everyone knows that they will do what they do regardless of anyone's input, on this forum, people like to speculate, make forecasts, and simply discuss the various possibilities.