EPAC: INVEST 92E

[Yellow Evan]

1. THE LARGE DISTURBANCE LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED. HOWEVER...
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE IT
MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...
30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS AND A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

[Yellow Evan]

1. A LARGE AREA OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 950
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE IT
MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...
30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS AND A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

[Yellow Evan]

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF
DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

[cycloneye]

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
ABOUT 1000 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE
FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE THE LOW MOVES WESTWARD
AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND A HIGH
CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.

[Yellow Evan]

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 1000 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE THIS SYSTEM IS POORLY ORGANIZED AT THE
PRESENT TIME...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BECOME
MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE THE LOW
MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AND A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

[Yellow Evan]

Models have backed off quite a bit. All eyes on Utor now I guess.

[Yellow Evan]

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 1000
MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER...
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE
FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE THE LOW MOVES WESTWARD
AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND A MEDIUM
CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.

[Kingarabian]

Looking better. Still needs to develop and maintain more convection near that LLC.

[tolakram]

1. SATELLITE-DERIVED WIND DATA INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA HAS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION...AND THE
ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS WELL REMOVED FROM
THE SURFACE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WHILE THE LOW MOVES WESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_epac.shtml

[jaguarjace]

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED ABOUT 1175 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA HAVE BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED
OVERNIGHT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHILE THE LOW
MOVES WESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

[Hurricane_Luis]

Up to 70%

1. FIRST VISIBLE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED
ABOUT 1225 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT. IF
ADDITIONAL DATA CONFIRM THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS FORMED...
ADVISORIES WOULD BE INITIATED LATER THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
AROUND 15 MPH.

[supercane4867]

Now up to 70%...I thought it went poof

[Kingarabian]

Actually I think this was a TD yesterday. Despite the convection being displaced to the west of the well defined LLC, you don't see this scenario in your typical invest. Usually you see popcorn convection trying to consolidate over the center. It actually had a look of a storm that was formed but heavily sheared.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Yellow Evan]

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1250 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS GENERALLY REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH.

[Yellow Evan]

Won't be shocked to see a re-number soon.

[Kingarabian]

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED A COMPLEX CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL LOW PRES SYSTEM...WITH A
MEAN CENTER NEAR 13N127.5W AND ANALYZED AT 1009 MB. SEVERAL LOW
LEVEL CYCLONIC SWIRLS CAN BE SEEN IN VISIBLE IMAGERY THIS
AFTERNOON ROTATING CYCLONICALLY. SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO OCCUR ACROSS THE SW
QUADRANT OF THE LOW...WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE AND LLVL
CONVERGENCE AREA OCCURRING. AS MENTIONED BELOW...AN INVERTED MID
TO UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THIS CIRCULATION THE PAST FEW DAYS
HAS NEARLY CAUGHT UP TO THE LOW...AND CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN DRY
AND STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE E SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW OUT TO
NEARLY 500 NM...DUE TO UPPER CONVERGENCE. THERE REMAINS AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR THE LOW TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...AND IT HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF INTENSIFYING INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT TRACKS IN A
GENERALLY WESTWARD MOTION.

[Yellow Evan]

This reminds me of Hilda 09 a bit.

[jaguarjace]

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME UNFAVORABLE BY
THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH
CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

[jaguarjace]

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED WELL TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE
COAST OF MEXICO IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE UNFAVORABLE ON THURSDAY. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

[jaguarjace]

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1500 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE
COAST OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE UNFAVORABLE ON THURSDAY. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...40
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.