EPAC: HENRIETTE - Post-Tropical

[Kingarabian]

It's very interesting over here.

You're always welcome over here. I know it must get boring watching the same storm going 'poof' over and over again.

[Caribwxgirl]

It's very interesting over here.

You're always welcome over here. I know it must get boring watching the same storm going 'poof' over and over again.

So true.

[cycloneye]

Up to 60%

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENNISULA CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT...AND THE LOW COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TONIGHT OR ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS doesn't develop this at all.

[galaxy401]

All depends on Gil IMO. If Gil strengthens quick it will inhibit this invest's development.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track.

EP, 90, 2013073100, , BEST, 0, 121N, 1095W, 25, 1009, LO

[Yellow Evan]

IMO I think 90E may form tomorrow morning. Significant intensification however is somewhat unlikely beyond minimal tropical storm intensity IMO likely due to it's proximity to Gil.

[Yellow Evan]

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA HAVE DIMINISHED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.
HOWEVER...THE LOW HAS A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION...AND IT STILL HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT
10 TO 15 MPH.

[Extratropical94]

Down to 40%

1. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 725 MILES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA DECREASED OVERNIGHT...AND THE
FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LESS LIKELY TO OCCUR. THIS
SYSTEM NOW HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

[Yellow Evan]

Down to 40%

1. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 725 MILES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA DECREASED OVERNIGHT...AND THE
FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LESS LIKELY TO OCCUR. THIS
SYSTEM NOW HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

I think this will bust now. Would have been neat to see this become Henriette.

[Yellow Evan]

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT
750 MILES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED. ALTHOUGH THE PROXIMITY TO
TROPICAL STORM GIL MAKES THE DEVELOPMENT LESS LIKELY TO
OCCUR...THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

[Kingarabian]

Convection making a comeback. Would give it a 50% chance. Interesting how the NHC has not once mentioned anything about it being too close to TS Gil that may hinder it's development...

[Kingarabian]

[Yellow Evan]

Convection making a comeback. Would give it a 50% chance. Interesting how the NHC has not once mentioned anything about it being too close to TS Gil that may hinder it's development...

It does. From last TWO "ALTHOUGH THE PROXIMITY TO
TROPICAL STORM GIL MAKES THE DEVELOPMENT LESS LIKELY TO
OCCUR"

[Yellow Evan]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 312343
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT WED JUL 31 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON
RECENTLY-UPGRADED HURRICANE GIL...LOCATED WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT
750 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH THE PROXIMITY TO HURRICANE GIL REDUCES THE CHANCE OF
DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

BEGINNING TOMORROW WITH THE 5 AM PDT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER WILL BEGIN INCLUDING INFORMATION ABOUT
THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE FOLLOWING
FIVE DAYS. THIS INFORMATION WILL BE PROVIDED PROBABILISTICALLY IN
10-PERCENT INCREMENTS...AND WILL SUPPLEMENT THE 48-HOUR
PROBABILISTIC FORMATION POTENTIAL ALREADY PROVIDED. THE CURRENT
GRAPHICAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK THAT SHOWS THE 48-HOUR GENESIS
POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED. NHC IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING A
FIVE-DAY GENESIS POTENTIAL GRAPHIC THAT MAY BECOME AVAILABLE LATER
IN THE SEASON.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Yellow Evan]

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA HAVE DIMINISHED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE PROXIMITY TO HURRICANE GIL REDUCES THE CHANCE
OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
GENERALLY WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

[Extratropical94]

First system ever to get a public five-day probability forecast:

How do we say now...
Remains at/Up to 50%/60%?

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED ABOUT 775 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 MPH
AND CONTINUES TO HAVE A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AFTER THAT...AND
THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

[RL3AO]

Yeah. I think we can just say 50/60%.

[Kingarabian]

If Gil continues to move at a faster clip, it should help it's chances.

[Yellow Evan]

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE...LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...REMAIN POORLY ORGANIZED.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE
FOR DEVELOPMENT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND ARE LIKELY TO
BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE AFTER THAT TIME. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.