EPAC: COSME - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 375 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ARE
GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING
FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[cycloneye]

TCFA issued.

FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
300 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.7N 100.0W TO 16.8N 108.6W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 220030Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.1N 101.2W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12N
100.3W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 101.2W, APPROXIMATELY 305 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) LOCATED
UNDERNEATH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION. A 220030Z SSMIS MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOWS THE CONSOLIDATING LLCC AND INDICATES FRAGMENTED BANDING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. A 211852Z SCATTEROMETRY PASS
INDICATED 15-20 KNOT WINDS SURROUNDING THE ELONGATED LLCC. UPPER
LEVEL ANLAYSIS INDICATES GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT AS WELL AS LOW (5 TO
10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED BETWEEN 18 AND 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. DUE TO THE INCREASED CONSOLIDATION OF
THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY

[gatorcane]

GFS, CMC, FIM and to a lesser extent UKMET make a Fujiwhara with 94E and 95E, it would be great they verify.

According to the latest model guidance, the CMC still forecasts a Fujiwhara, but looks like the GFS and ECMWF show 95E getting absorbed into this one.

[Yellow Evan]

1. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE BECOMING FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Yellow Evan]

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
ACAPULCO IS PRODUCING A LARGE BUT MOSTLY DISORGANIZED AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
TO BECOME FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE IT
MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAS
BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME FAVORABLE FOR A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

[cycloneye]

It should be a TD on Sunday morning if it continues to organize like this.

[gatorcane]

Yes it's looking rather good tonight, well on it's way to becoming a TD and likely a named storm.

[Kingarabian]

At this rate of intensification for 94E, 95E may not make it.

[Yellow Evan]

Looking really nice.

[Yellow Evan]

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT
450 MILES SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS LOW COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO
10 MPH.

[Kingarabian]

23/0545 UTC 12.1N 102.9W T2.0/2.0 94E -- East Pacific

Dvorak says TD.

[Kingarabian]

Nice looking invest...

[cycloneye]

This is like a WPAC system that takes it's time to develop due to monsoon origin but once it develops,it can intensify at a steady to rapid rate.

[Weatherguy173]

Why hasn't the NHC ruled this as a TD yet? It was at 100% chance 2 updates ago, and 100% chance for this past one.

[NDG]

They are probably going to upgrade it later today now that convection is refiring near is COC and becoming more persistent.
It has one heck of a large circulation.

[supercane4867]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_ep942013_ep032013.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201306231406
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END

[cycloneye]

EP, 03, 2013062312, , BEST, 0, 118N, 1037W, 30, 1005, TD

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 013.invest

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032013
800 AM PDT SUN JUN 23 2013

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL SOUTH OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.8N 103.8W
ABOUT 500 MI...800 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.8 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING ERRATICALLY...BUT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST AT AN INCREASING FORWARD
SPEED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE
DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF
MEXICO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT...AND COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY TUESDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE



TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032013
800 AM PDT SUN JUN 23 2013

SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE LARGE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE SOUTH OF MEXICO HAS FINALLY ACQUIRED ENOUGH OF A CENTER TO
BE CONSIDERED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE SYSTEM CONSISTS OF A SMALL
AREA OF CENTRAL CONVECTION...WITH LARGE BANDING FEATURES TO THE
NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 30
KT...WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST SATELLITE FIXES AND
EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA. OTHER THAN THE LARGE SIZE OF THE
SYSTEM...THERE ARE NO OBVIOUS IMPEDIMENTS TO THIS DEPRESSION
STRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT REMAINS OVER
WARM WATER WITH LIGHT/MODERATE SHEAR CONDITIONS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL...A BIT HIGHER THAN THE
INTENSITY CONSENSUS. WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE IN A FEW DAYS WHEN
THE CYCLONE REACHES COOLER WATER AND A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE.

THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT BEEN MOVING MUCH DURING THE PAST 12-24 HR
WHILE IT HAS REMAINED SOMEWHAT EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. THE GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL EXIT THE ITCZ BY TOMORROW AND
BE STEERED BY A BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO. THUS...THE
CYCLONE SHOULD ACCELERATE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST ON
MONDAY AND CONTINUE A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE FOR 4-5
DAYS. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE SYSTEM SHOULD BECOME
A SHALLOWER CYCLONE AND TAKE A WESTWARD TURN AS IT BECOMES STEERED
BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. FOR A FIRST ADVISORY...THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS
RATHER TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOT TOO
DISSIMILAR FROM THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/1500Z 11.8N 103.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 12.2N 104.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 24/1200Z 13.4N 105.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 25/0000Z 15.2N 107.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 25/1200Z 16.4N 109.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 26/1200Z 18.0N 114.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 27/1200Z 19.5N 119.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 28/1200Z 20.5N 124.5W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[Ntxw]

This is like a WPAC system that takes it's time to develop due to monsoon origin but once it develops,it can intensify at a steady to rapid rate.

It sure does! Not only is the MJO on its side but there is a significant oceanic Kelvin wave underneath the system. Plenty of fuel from the ocean for this. At it's peak I think this system will be very photogenic on satellite.