EPAC: BARBARA - Remnants

[Yellow Evan]

IS the ATCF out yet?

[SouthDadeFish]

Looks like a tropical cyclone to me:



That microwave pass was impressive and I see a LLC on RGB imagery.

[Rgv20]

Interesting that today's afternoon discussion out of the NWS in Brownsville mentions it.

LOOKING TOWARDS THE TROPICS...NHC IS MONITORING AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF TEND TO BRING THIS FEATURE GRADUALLY NORTHWARDS
AFFECTING SOUTHERN MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA AS THE WEEKEND
APPROACHES. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS
AND STATEMENTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONCERNING THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

[cycloneye]

Remains at 80%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT MON MAY 27 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
HAVE DECREASED A BIT THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE CIRCULATION IS
STILL BECOMING BETTER DEFINED...AND A REDEVELOPMENT OF THE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LEAD TO THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TONIGHT OR ON TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...
80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS BEFORE IT REACHES THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO. IF A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING WOULD BE
NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO...AND
INTERESTS IN THAT AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY
OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO AND WESTERN CENTRAL AMERICA DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

[Kingarabian]

It has decent outflow that stretches all the way into the golf.

[euro6208]

most likely will be a weak landfalling system...rain will be the main issue...

[euro6208]

TXPZ23 KNES 280002
TCSENP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (92E)

B. 27/2345Z

C. 13.5N

D. 95.9W

E. FIVE/GOES-E

F. T1.0/1.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...DT=0 AS THERE IS NO DEEP CONVECTION. PT=1.0. MET=1.0. FT
IS BASED ON MET.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SCHWARTZ

[cycloneye]

TD later today

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT TUE MAY 28 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY...AND HAS A
HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT
REACHES THE COAST OF MEXICO IN A DAY OR TWO. INTERESTS ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM...AS TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS COULD BE
REQUIRED WITH LESS THAN THE NORMAL AMOUNT OF LEAD TIME. REGARDLESS
OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO AND WESTERN CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE
RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

[Yellow Evan]

Any re-number?

[Extratropical94]

Any re-number?

Not yet. But there's still some time left.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Invest 92E remains very broad and unconsolidated this morning. An ASCAT pass from earlier this morning revealed the circulation isn't well-defined either. It's running out of time to develop. If they classify it [assuming it doesn't organize past this point, which it may], the reasoning would probably be it's close to the coastline.

[supercane4867]

It still looks consolidating and should make it to at least TD status

[supercane4867]

12Z GFS has a moderate TS before landfall

[cycloneye]

Maybe the tall mountains are killing the circulation?

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

The circulation is becoming increasingly elongated on satellite imagery. Not looking too good for 92E.

[cycloneye]

TD may be forming.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
ABOUT 120 MILES SOUTH OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO IS BECOMING BETTER
DEFINED...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD BE FORMING. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
BEFORE IT REACHES THE COAST OF MEXICO IN A DAY OR SO. INTERESTS
ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM...AS TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS
COULD BE REQUIRED WITH LESS THAN THE NORMAL AMOUNT OF LEAD TIME.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO AND WESTERN CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES.

[tolakram]

17:15Z



Source: ftp://goes.gsfc.nasa.gov/pub/goeseast/overview2/vis/

[supercane4867]

It's already a TS according to Dvorak analysis


TXPZ23 KNES 281802
TCSENP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (92E)

B. 28/1745Z

C. 14.2N

D. 96.3W

E. FIVE/GOES-E

F. T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...CENTER IS AGAIN RELOCATED...THIS TIME SLIGHTLY TO THE
SOUTH. BANDING MEASURES 3/10 FOR A DT OF 2.0 BUT THE CLOUD FEATURES WERE
NOT CLEAR CUT. MET IS 2.0 WHILE PT IS 2.5. FT IS BASED ON PT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TURK

[cycloneye]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_ep922013_ep022013.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201305281826
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Figured they would once the satellite intensity estimates came in. Circulation is still poorly defined, but its proximity to land likely played a part in classification.