INVEST 91W
.15kts-1010mb-
15.5N-115.9E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1010 HPA
AT 15.6N 117.2E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST SLOWLY.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXPECTED MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 070000UTC AT 16.3N 113.1E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
looks like JMA will name this one
WPAC : INVEST 91W
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- mrbagyo
- Category 5
- Posts: 3615
- Age: 32
- Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2012 9:18 am
- Location: 14.13N 120.98E
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WPAC : INVEST 91W
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- mrbagyo
- Category 5
- Posts: 3615
- Age: 32
- Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2012 9:18 am
- Location: 14.13N 120.98E
- Contact:
Re: WPAC : INVEST 91W
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 15.5N 115.9E,
APPROXIMATELY 426 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG. RECENT ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS ENHANCED CONVECTION SHEARED
TO THE WEST OF A POORLY DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
A 060400Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS WEAK FRAGMENTED BANDING THAT
IS SLIGHTLY CURVED JUST WEST OF THE LLCC. A 060139Z ASCAT PASS
INDICATES A WEAK LLCC WITH STRONGER WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH ENHANCED
CONVECTION ALONG THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO
20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 15.5N 115.9E,
APPROXIMATELY 426 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG. RECENT ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS ENHANCED CONVECTION SHEARED
TO THE WEST OF A POORLY DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
A 060400Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS WEAK FRAGMENTED BANDING THAT
IS SLIGHTLY CURVED JUST WEST OF THE LLCC. A 060139Z ASCAT PASS
INDICATES A WEAK LLCC WITH STRONGER WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH ENHANCED
CONVECTION ALONG THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO
20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.
- mrbagyo
- Category 5
- Posts: 3615
- Age: 32
- Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2012 9:18 am
- Location: 14.13N 120.98E
- Contact:
Re: WPAC : INVEST 91W
poof!
JMA no longer expecting a TS out of this depression...
JMA no longer expecting a TS out of this depression...
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.
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