CPAC: ANA - Recon

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Next mission:

Code: Select all

1. TROPICAL STORM ANA
FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 77
A. 19/1130Z, 1730Z
B. AFXXX 0802C ANA
C. 19/1015Z (Scheduled takeoff at 6:15am EDT / 12:15am HST)
D. 20.0N 159.5W
E. 19/1100Z TO 19/1730Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

Earlier mission with current satellite and previous vortex messages. Last 992mb icon was at 4:39Z. 6:30Z satellite.

[Kingarabian]

Chris, is the track still to the right of the CPHC? Thanks. Looking at Radar it still seems to be 320.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Chris, is the track still to the right of the CPHC? Thanks. Looking at Radar it still seems to be 320.

I'll check.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

I didn't include the track in the first image because the 5pm HST track is meaningless. It is moving toward much further north. I'll check movement in a moment.

[Kingarabian]

Appreciaite the reply. I'm estimating movement around 6mph.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Here is the thing though, they go by 12 hour movement so this is a shorter term movement (about 8 and a half hours):

From the 23:20:00Z 992mb vortex to the latest radar image.

Google Earth radar:
http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/kmzgenerator.php
I'm using Kauai long range for these images.

[Kingarabian]

Ah I see. I'm not sure if she's wobbling but sometimes the movement on radar seems due north.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

I posted a reply in the discussion thread.

[Kingarabian]

000
URPN15 KNHC 191020
AF303 0802C ANA HDOB 03 20141019
101100 2120N 15757W 0162 ///// 0152 +226 +201 360000 000 /// /// 23
101130 2120N 15757W 0162 ///// 0152 +225 +201 360000 000 /// /// 23
101200 2120N 15757W 0161 ///// 0151 +225 +202 360000 000 /// /// 23
101230 2120N 15757W 0162 ///// 0151 +225 +202 360000 000 /// /// 23
101300 2120N 15757W 0162 ///// 0153 +228 +202 360000 000 /// /// 23
101330 2120N 15757W 0163 ///// 0153 +230 +201 360000 000 /// /// 23
101400 2120N 15757W 0163 ///// 0153 +230 +201 360000 000 /// /// 23
101430 2120N 15757W 0163 ///// 0153 +230 +201 360000 000 /// /// 23
101500 2120N 15757W 0163 ///// 0153 +232 +201 360000 000 /// /// 23
101530 2120N 15757W 0163 ///// 0153 +232 +201 360000 000 /// /// 23
101600 2120N 15757W 0162 ///// 0153 +230 +200 360000 000 /// /// 23
101630 2120N 15757W 0163 ///// 0153 +230 +205 360000 000 /// /// 23
101700 2120N 15757W 0162 ///// 0152 +230 +202 360000 000 /// /// 23
101730 2120N 15757W 0162 ///// 0152 +227 +201 360000 000 /// /// 23
101800 2120N 15757W 0162 ///// 0152 +225 +200 360000 000 /// /// 23
101830 2120N 15757W 0162 ///// 0152 +225 +199 360000 000 /// /// 23
101900 2120N 15757W 0162 ///// 0152 +225 +199 360000 000 /// /// 23
101930 2120N 15757W 0163 ///// 0153 +228 +198 360000 000 /// /// 23
102000 2120N 15757W 0161 ///// 0152 +230 +198 360000 000 /// /// 23
102030 2120N 15757W 0162 ///// 0152 +230 +198 360000 000 /// /// 23
$$
;

[Kingarabian]

000
URPN15 KNHC 191030
AF303 0802C ANA HDOB 04 20141019
102100 2120N 15756W 0156 ///// 0150 +234 +221 114008 012 /// /// 23
102130 2120N 15755W 9993 00141 0152 +234 +220 117018 019 /// /// 03
102200 2119N 15754W 9672 00432 0156 +213 +202 129025 027 /// /// 03
102230 2118N 15754W 9198 00870 0162 +191 //// 135030 032 /// /// 05
102300 2117N 15756W 8878 01186 0165 +178 +170 118029 032 /// /// 03
102330 2117N 15758W 8583 01463 0162 +165 +161 113030 031 /// /// 03
102400 2117N 15800W 8224 01832 //// +146 //// 116036 038 /// /// 05
102430 2117N 15802W 7889 02186 //// +130 //// 121039 041 /// /// 05
102500 2117N 15804W 7604 02486 //// +116 //// 120042 042 /// /// 05
102530 2117N 15806W 7325 02802 0152 +095 +082 121043 044 /// /// 05
102600 2117N 15808W 7056 03115 0149 +083 +062 125042 044 /// /// 03
102630 2118N 15811W 6992 03191 0151 +077 +060 128042 042 /// /// 03
102700 2118N 15813W 6994 03188 0146 +080 +065 132043 044 /// /// 03
102730 2118N 15815W 6993 03185 0147 +077 +070 129044 044 /// /// 03
102800 2118N 15817W 6991 03189 0145 +079 +074 130044 044 /// /// 03
102830 2119N 15819W 6992 03189 0152 +076 +076 127042 043 /// /// 03
102900 2119N 15822W 6990 03191 0153 +078 +077 131042 042 /// /// 03
102930 2119N 15824W 6991 03190 0145 +079 +077 140044 044 /// /// 03
103000 2119N 15826W 6990 03189 0144 +079 +076 140048 049 /// /// 03
103030 2120N 15828W 6992 03186 0146 +077 +075 132048 050 038 006 00
$$
;

[Chris_in_Tampa]

[Kingarabian]

TS Winds right off the coast of oahu?

From 132° at 48 knots
(From the SE at ~ 55.2 mph) 7.7°C
(~ 45.9°F) 7.5°C
(~ 45.5°F) 50 knots Flight level 10sec
(~ 57.5 mph) 38 knots SFMR
(~ 43.7 mph) 6 mm/hr
(~ 0.24 in/hr) 36.5 knots (~ 42.0 mph)
Tropical Storm 76.0%

[Chris_in_Tampa]

We'll have to see more readings to see to see if that is just heavy rain perhaps. But it could definitely be gusting to that.

[Kingarabian]

000
URPN15 KNHC 191040
AF303 0802C ANA HDOB 05 20141019
103100 2120N 15830W 6996 03184 0149 +077 //// 131048 048 039 006 01
103130 2120N 15832W 6980 03209 //// +073 //// 132045 048 038 006 05
103200 2120N 15832W 6980 03209 0147 +078 //// 132042 044 037 006 01
103230 2117N 15835W 6992 03187 0146 +080 +079 137041 042 038 006 00
103300 2116N 15836W 6985 03191 0147 +080 +080 140041 041 039 008 00
103330 2115N 15838W 6964 03215 0144 +084 +084 140043 044 039 009 00
103400 2114N 15839W 6965 03216 0150 +085 +085 131044 046 041 012 00
103430 2113N 15841W 6967 03218 0150 +083 +083 130042 043 043 012 00
103500 2112N 15842W 6968 03210 0143 +078 +078 136044 044 042 012 00
103530 2111N 15844W 6966 03213 0146 +084 +084 140040 044 043 011 00
103600 2109N 15845W 6969 03207 0145 +083 +083 141039 042 043 011 00
103630 2108N 15847W 6964 03211 0139 +084 +084 129048 051 043 010 00
103700 2107N 15848W 6970 03206 0137 +085 +085 125048 051 043 011 00
103730 2106N 15850W 6969 03203 0138 +086 +086 126043 047 043 011 00
103800 2105N 15851W 6967 03204 0132 +090 +090 122042 043 044 011 00
103830 2104N 15853W 6969 03202 0131 +090 +090 119042 043 043 009 00
103900 2102N 15854W 6968 03199 0139 +088 +088 124038 042 045 010 00
103930 2101N 15856W 6968 03199 0138 +086 +086 138041 046 045 010 00
104000 2100N 15857W 6965 03203 0137 +078 +078 136045 047 044 009 00
104030 2059N 15859W 6974 03189 0124 +083 +083 134048 050 045 009 00
$$
;

[Chris_in_Tampa]

[Chris_in_Tampa]

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Where the SFMR estimated 10 second surface winds to be 38 to 39 knots, a sonde measured a momentary gust of 27 knots. You'll see the sonde location in the next mage.

UZPN13 KNHC 191042
XXAA 69117 99213 71585 08818 99015 25021 09527 00128 23821 11033
92808 20633 12040 85536 16826 11545 70171 07603 13550 88999 77999
31313 09608 81030
61616 AF303 0802C ANA OB 02
62626 MBL WND 10535 AEV 07775 DLM WND 11544 014699 WL150 10532 08
4 REL 2133N15846W 103018 SPG 2135N15851W 103458 =
XXBB 69118 99213 71585 08818 00015 25021 11968 21613 22850 16826
33736 10642 44714 10019 55699 07402
21212 00015 09527 11004 10534 22965 11536 33957 12045 44946 12041
55934 12045 66925 12040 77919 11547 88913 11548 99905 11543 11850
11545 22740 12053 33699 13550
31313 09608 81030
61616 AF303 0802C ANA OB 02
62626 MBL WND 10535 AEV 07775 DLM WND 11544 014699 WL150 10532 08
4 REL 2133N15846W 103018 SPG 2135N15851W 103458 =
;

[Kingarabian]

000
URPN15 KNHC 191050
AF303 0802C ANA HDOB 06 20141019
104100 2058N 15900W 6966 03198 0125 +089 +089 134048 050 046 014 00
104130 2057N 15902W 6962 03199 0124 +091 +091 126043 045 051 016 00
104200 2056N 15903W 6968 03186 0117 +092 +092 122042 047 053 015 00
104230 2054N 15905W 6964 03183 0114 +093 +093 121045 049 053 014 00
104300 2053N 15906W 6963 03185 0096 +091 +091 125052 054 053 013 00
104330 2052N 15908W 6969 03172 0101 +090 +090 128055 057 052 012 00
104400 2051N 15909W 6965 03177 0099 +091 +091 125057 059 053 012 00
104430 2050N 15911W 6969 03163 0093 +092 +092 122056 058 056 012 00
104500 2048N 15912W 6965 03160 0088 +095 +095 125057 059 056 016 00
104530 2047N 15914W 6965 03157 0076 +098 +098 128056 057 056 017 00
104600 2046N 15915W 6959 03162 0074 +099 +099 121064 066 059 024 00
104630 2045N 15917W 6980 03130 0071 +100 +100 124062 065 061 021 00
104700 2044N 15919W 6970 03133 0058 +098 +098 125066 069 059 014 00
104730 2042N 15920W 6971 03123 0032 +089 +088 116060 062 060 016 00
104800 2041N 15922W 6956 03135 0031 +100 +100 115061 063 067 034 00
104830 2040N 15923W 6974 03100 0016 +113 +113 114061 064 071 037 00
104900 2039N 15925W 6959 03107 0005 +115 +115 116059 062 072 035 00
104930 2037N 15926W 6966 03095 9987 +117 +117 124054 066 072 025 00
105000 2036N 15928W 6983 03062 9956 +117 +117 100032 043 072 024 00
105030 2035N 15929W 6958 03090 9931 +120 +102 097027 029 072 007 00
$$
;

[Kingarabian]

72 knots
(~ 82.9 mph) Flight level 10 seconds

68.5 knots (~ 78.8 mph)
Category One Hurricane SFMR

[Chris_in_Tampa]