ATL: CRISTOBAL - Advisories

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014
500 PM AST SAT AUG 23 2014

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUES FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
AND PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.8N 72.3W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM NE OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM ESE OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED
ISLAND...LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED
ISLANDS...AS WELL AS FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND FOR THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG
ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED
ISLAND...LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED
ISLANDS...AS WELL AS FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG
ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.3 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. A
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...
FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION WILL CONTINUE MOVING NEAR OR OVER THE
TURKS AND CAICOS AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND PASS NEAR
OR OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY SUNDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON SURFACE DATA FROM
PROVIDENCIALES IN THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS IS 1005 MB...29.68
INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS...AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF UP TO 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA...
WHERE THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE WARNING AREA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN



TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014
500 PM AST SAT AUG 23 2014

The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating the
disturbance near the southeastern Bahamas found a well-defined
circulation this afternoon. Even though the convective presentation
is somewhat ragged, there is enough organization to classify the
system as a tropical cyclone. The intensity is set to 30 kt based
on flight level wind data from the aircraft and an earlier ASCAT
pass, and the central pressure of 1005 mb is based on a recent
surface observation from Providenciales in the Turks and Caicos. The
SHIPS model shows light to moderate shear over the cyclone for the
next couple of days, which should allow for intensification given
that the cyclone will be moving over waters of 29 to 30C. The NHC
forecast shows slow strengthening in the first 24 to 36 hours as
the cyclone organizes. Global models show more favorable upper-
level winds over the system in a couple of days, which should allow
for strengthening to a hurricane in by 3 days. The official forecast
is close to the IVCN intensity consensus through the period.

The initial motion estimate is a relatively uncertain 310/10 given
the recent formation of the center. The cyclone should continue
moving northwestward and north-northwestward into a developing break
in the subtropical ridge cause by a mid/upper-level trough off the
U.S. east coast. As the trough begins to lift out and steering
currents weaken, a slow motion is expected in 36 to 48 hours. Then
as a subtropical ridge rebuilds to the east of the cyclone later in
the period, the system is expected to turn northward and then
northeastward. However, there is significant disagreement in
the timing and sharpness of the turn in this and previous dynamical
model cycles. Currently the GFDL and GFS are along the western
edge of the guidance envelope showing a more westward track and
a slower motion at day 5. The ECMWF, GEFS mean, and HWRF show a
sharper turn and a more northeastward motion by day 5 on the east
side of the guidance envelope. The NHC forecast is near the TVCA
multi-model consensus through most of the period and a little to the
left of it at day 5. Given the spread in the guidance and the recent
formation of the system, confidence in the details of the track
forecast is lower than normal.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/2100Z 21.8N 72.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 22.9N 73.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 24.0N 74.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 24.6N 74.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 25.0N 75.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 26/1800Z 26.5N 76.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 27/1800Z 29.0N 77.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 28/1800Z 32.0N 76.5W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brennan

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014
800 PM AST SAT AUG 23 2014

...DEPRESSION JUST NORTHWEST OF OF PROVIDENCIALES IN THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS....


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.0N 72.4W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM NE OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM ESE OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 11 MPH...18 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED
ISLAND...LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED
ISLANDS...AS WELL AS FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG
ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.4 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 11 MPH...18 KM/H. A
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...
FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION WILL CONTINUE MOVING NEAR OR OVER THE
TURKS AND CAICOS AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND PASS NEAR
OR OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

REPORTS FROM NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS... AND THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL
STORM BY SUNDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON AIRCRAFT DATA AND
SURFACE DATA FROM PROVIDENCIALES IN THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS IS
1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS...AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF UP TO 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA...
WHERE THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE WARNING AREA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014
1100 PM AST SAT AUG 23 2014

...DEPRESSION MOVING NORTHWESTWARD NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS....


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.3N 72.6W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM NNE OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND
ABOUT 355 MI...575 KM ESE OF NASSAU
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED
ISLAND...LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED
ISLANDS...AS WELL AS FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG
ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS SYSTEM. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR
THIS AREA ON SUNDAY MORNING.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.6 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...
FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION WILL CONTINUE MOVING NEAR OR OVER THE TURKS
AND CAICOS AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND PASS NEAR OR OVER
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY SUNDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS...AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF UP TO 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA...
WHERE THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE WARNING AREA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014
1100 PM AST SAT AUG 23 2014

Satellite imagery indicates that Tropical Depression Four has
changed little in organization during the past several hours.
While the convection remains somewhat ragged, a persistent area of
stronger convection has formed near the center. Data from NOAA and
Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds are near 30 kt, which is in agreement with the
satellite intensity estimate from TAFB. The cirrus outflow is good
over the eastern semicircle and poor elsewhere.

The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 320/8. The cyclone
should continue moving northwestward and north-northwestward into a
developing break in the subtropical ridge cause by a mid- to upper-
level trough off of the U.S. east coast. As the trough begins to
lift out and steering currents weaken, a slow motion is expected in
36 to 48 hours. The track guidance becomes very divergent at that
time. The UKMET and the NAVGEM models build enough ridging north of
the cyclone to steer it across Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico.
The Canadian model currently forecasts a quick right turn with the
cyclone moving well out to sea. The ECMWF and the GFS keep a
stronger ridge east of the cyclone and thus forecast a more
northward motion east of the southeastern United States, followed by
a northeastward turn. However, the GFS does show a westward wobble
just north of the Bahamas before the turn. The new forecast track
is nudged a little to the east of the previous track, and it lies a
little to the left of the TVCA consensus and the center of the
guidance envelope. As mentioned in the previous discussion, the
confidence in the track forecast is lower than normal.

The large-scale models suggest that the cyclone should experience
light to moderate westerly or northwesterly vertical wind shear
throughout the forecast period. The intensity guidance forecasts
less strengthening than earlier, which necessitates some downward
adjustment of the new intensity forecast. Even with this change,
the new forecast is on the upper edge of the intensity guidance.
Overall, the forecast is close to the IVCN intensity consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0300Z 22.3N 72.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 24/1200Z 23.1N 73.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 25/0000Z 23.9N 74.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 25/1200Z 24.4N 74.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 26/0000Z 24.8N 74.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 27/0000Z 27.0N 76.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 28/0000Z 29.5N 77.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 29/0000Z 32.5N 75.0W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014
500 AM AST SUN AUG 24 2014

...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.9N 73.3W
ABOUT 40 MI...60 KM NNW OF MAYAGUANA ISLAND
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM ESE OF LONG ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED
ISLAND...LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED
ISLANDS...AS WELL AS FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG
ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS SYSTEM. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR
THIS AREA LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.3 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED
BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
LATER TODAY AND MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE
DEPRESSION WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
THROUGH MONDAY.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
TODAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS...AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF UP TO 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA...
WHERE THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE WARNING AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014
500 AM AST SUN AUG 24 2014

The satellite presentation of the tropical depression has gradually
improved overnight. Convection has increased to the northeast
of the center and a little more banding is noted. Although the
pressure has dropped a few millibars during the past 6 to 12 hours,
data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that the cyclone remains a 30-kt tropical depression.

Fixes from the aircraft yield an initial motion of 325/8 kt. The
cyclone is expected to slow down and turn north-northwestward today
into a break in the ridge caused by a mid- to upper-level trough
that is currently moving off the U.S. east coast. This trough is
forecast to dig southeastward during the next 24 to 36 hours before
lifting northeastward on Tuesday. The track guidance has shifted
significantly eastward this cycle, with the exception of the latest
ECMWF, which is very similar to its 1200 UTC run. The eastward
shift in most of the models appears to be the result of increased
interaction of the cyclone with the aforementioned trough during the
next 48 hours. This leads to a more north-northwestward or
northward motion during the next day or so. Once the trough lifts
out, most of the guidance shows a bend back toward the northwest,
before the cyclone turns northward and northeast around a
subtropical ridge to its east. The NHC track has been shifted
eastward, but it remains along the western side of the
guidance envelope out of respect for the ECMWF and continuity of the
previous forecasts. The new track forecast is closest to the HWRF,
but is well west of the latest multi-model consensus. Future
eastward adjustments may be required if the eastward model trend
continues. Given that a large spread remains in the guidance,
the confidence in the track forecast remains lower than normal.

Light to moderate northwesterly shear is expected during the next
few days. However, the shear is not expected to be strong enough to
prevent strengthening, and the official forecast calls for gradual
intensification throughout the forecast period. The NHC intensity
forecast is close to the SHIPS guidance and the intensity
consensus ICON.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0900Z 22.9N 73.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 24/1800Z 23.7N 73.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 25/0600Z 24.4N 73.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 25/1800Z 25.0N 74.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 26/0600Z 25.9N 74.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 27/0600Z 28.5N 75.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 28/0600Z 31.5N 75.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 29/0600Z 34.0N 70.0W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

[abajan]

000
WTNT64 KNHC 241019
TCUAT4

TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014
620 AM AST SUN AUG 24 2014


...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...

NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE
THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS STRENGTHENED TO TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL.
THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 MPH...75 KM/H WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.


SUMMARY OF 620 AM AST...1020 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.9N 73.3W
ABOUT 40 MI...60 KM NNW OF MAYAGUANA ISLAND
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM ESE OF LONG ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014
800 AM EDT SUN AUG 24 2014

...CRISTOBAL RE-FORMS A LITTLE TO THE NORTHEAST...
...STILL MOVING NORTHWESTWARD NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.0N 73.0W
ABOUT 40 MI...60 KM N OF MAYAGUANA ISLAND
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM ESE OF LONG ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED
ISLAND...LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED
ISLANDS...AS WELL AS FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG
ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS SYSTEM. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR
THIS AREA LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.0 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED
BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
LATER TODAY AND MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE
DEPRESSION WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
THROUGH MONDAY.

DATA FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
PRIMARILY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...CRISTOBAL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS...AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF UP TO 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA...
WHERE THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE WARNING AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014
1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 24 2014

...CRISTOBAL MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...
...HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND PORTIONS
OF THE BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.6N 73.1W
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM E OF LONG ISLAND
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM E OF GREAT EXUMA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED
ISLAND...LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED
ISLANDS...AS WELL AS FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG
ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS SYSTEM. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR
THIS AREA LATER TODAY.



TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014
1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 24 2014

The overall cloud pattern of Cristobal has changed little since
the previous advisory. Flight-level wind data from the Air Force
Reserve and NOAA reconnaissance aircraft investigating Cristobal
earlier this morning indicated that the low-level and mid-level
circulations were not vertically aligned, suggesting that the
inner-core wind field of the cyclone is still trying to form. The
initial intensity of 40 kt is based on 1000-ft flight-level winds of
49 kt and a few reliable SFMR winds of near 40 kt.

The initial motion is an uncertain 345/6 kt. There are significant
differences noted between the various NHC models. The GFS model and
the GFS ensemble mean shear the mid-level circulation southward from
the current position, and take the remaining shallow and weak
low-level circulation quickly northeastward, which seems unlikely at
this time given the overall large structure of the cyclone noted in
recon, satellite, and upper-air data. In contrast, the ECMWF, UKMET,
and NAVGEM models keep Cristobal as a deeper, stronger, and more
vertically coherent cyclone, moving the system only slowly
north-northwestward or northwestward for the next 72 hours or so as
a strong mid-latitude trough over the Carolinas lifts out to the
northeast. As the trough lifts out, the subtropical ridge is
expected to build back in to the north of Cristobal until a second
trough moves off the U.S. east coast in 4-5 days and weakens the
ridge again, allowing Cristobal to move slowly northward and then
accelerate off to the northeast. More weight has been placed the on
the ECMWF-UKMET-NAVGEM solutions, and the official forecast track
remains near the left side of the guidance envelope.

Light to moderate northwesterly to northerly shear is expected to
affect Cristobal throughout the forecast period. However, the shear
is not forecast to be strong enough to prevent at least slow
strengthening, especially given that the upper-level flow is
expected to be quite diffluent and divergent through at least 48
hours, which will act to enhance convective development. The NHC
intensity forecast remains close to SHIPS guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/1500Z 23.6N 73.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 24.2N 73.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 24.9N 73.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 25.7N 73.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 26.6N 74.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 27/1200Z 29.3N 74.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 28/1200Z 32.2N 73.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 29/1200Z 35.0N 67.3W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014
200 PM EDT SUN AUG 24 2014

...CRISTOBAL MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD...
...HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND PORTIONS
OF THE BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.2N 72.9W
ABOUT 145 MI...240 KM ENE OF LONG ISLAND
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM E OF GREAT EXUMA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED
ISLAND...LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED
ISLANDS...AS WELL AS FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG
ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS SYSTEM. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR
THIS AREA LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.



DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.9 WEST.
CRISTOBAL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. A MOTION
TOWARD THE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...
THE CENTER OF CRISTOBAL WILL PASS NEAR OR TO THE EAST OF THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS THROUGH MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM
MAINLY EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...CRISTOBAL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AS WELL AS THE
SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS AROUND 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE WARNING AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014
500 PM EDT SUN AUG 24 2014

Cristobal's convective cloud pattern has not changed much during the
past 6 hours, other than cloud tops having warmed some. Aircraft and
satellite data indicate that the inner-core wind field is still
broad, with multiple small swirls rotating around a mean center. Air
Force Reserve and NOAA reconnaissance aircraft data indicate the
central pressure has remained steady at 1001 mb, so the initial
intensity will be kept at 40 kt for this advisory.

The initial motion is northward or 360/7 kt. The NHC model guidance
has come into much better agreement on this cycle with the GFS track
having shifted westward and the ECMWF model having shifted eastward.
The rest of the models are reasonably close to the GFS and ECMWF
solutions. There is one main difference, however, which is the track
speed, with the GFS model lagging behind the ECMWF model and some
of the other models by more than 500 n mi at 120 hours. Cristobal
is expected to continue moving northward through a weakness in the
subtropical ridge and slow down over the next 72 hours as a strong
upper-level trough east of North Carolina lifts out to the
northeast. A second trough currently over the upper Midwest is
forecast to dig southeastward along the U.S. east coast by Days 4
and 5 and accelerate the cyclone northeastward over the north
Atlantic. The official forecast track has been shifted eastward
through 72 hours, and then shows a faster forward speed similar to
the ICON consensus model at 96 and 120 hours.

Light to moderate northwesterly to northerly shear is forecast to
affect Cristobal through 72 hours, which should allow for only slow
strengthening to occur. When Cristobal makes a northeastward turn
and accelerates after that time, the shear is expected to decrease
while the cyclone is over near-29C SST, which should allow Cristobal
to strengthen into a hurricane. The NHC intensity forecast is
similar to the previous advisory, and closely follows the consensus
intensity model ICON.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/2100Z 24.5N 73.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 24.9N 73.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 25/1800Z 25.7N 73.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 26/0600Z 26.6N 72.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 26/1800Z 28.4N 72.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 27/1800Z 31.9N 71.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 28/1800Z 35.0N 66.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 29/1800Z 39.5N 58.0W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014
800 PM EDT SUN AUG 24 2014

...CRISTOBAL MOVING ERRATICALLY BUT GENERALLY NORTHWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.6N 73.1W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM ENE OF SAN SALVADOR
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG
ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.1 WEST.
CRISTOBAL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. A
GENERALLY NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF CRISTOBAL WILL PASS
NEAR OR TO THE EAST OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THROUGH MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
MAINLY NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM NOAA AND AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT DATA IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...CRISTOBAL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AS WELL AS THE
SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS AROUND 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER PORTIONS
OF THE WARNING AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014
1100 PM EDT SUN AUG 24 2014

...CRISTOBAL MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.8N 73.1W
ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM ENE OF SAN SALVADOR
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG
ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.1 WEST.
CRISTOBAL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH. A NORTHWARD TO
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF CRISTOBAL WILL PASS
NEAR OR TO THE EAST OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THROUGH MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...BUT SOME
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...CRISTOBAL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AS WELL AS THE
SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS AROUND 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER PORTIONS
OF THE WARNING AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014
1100 PM EDT SUN AUG 24 2014

Cristobal is not a well-organized tropical cyclone at this time.
The deep convection has a ragged appearance, with little or no
banding features evident, and this convection is mainly
occurring well to the south of the estimated center location.
After adjusting for rain inflation, SFMR winds from aircraft
observations a few hours ago, indicated that the intensity is no
more than 40 kt. Also, the fixes from the Air Force and NOAA
planes, which were flying at altitudes of about 1000 and 8000 feet
respectively, indicated a southward tilt of the center with height.
This is consistent with some northerly shear over the storm as
suggested by water vapor imagery. Given the currently disorganized
state of Cristobal, not much intensification seems likely for the
next 12 hours or so. Afterwards, the global models are predicting a
little more favorable upper-tropospheric environment with
increasingly diffluent flow over the tropical cyclone. The official
intensity forecast is basically a blend of the SHIPS and LGEM
guidance, and only a little above the model consensus. By 120
hours, the global models depict the cyclone embedded within a
baroclinic zone, so extratropical transition should have occurred by
that time.

The motion has been rather erratic over the past several hours, but
my best estimate is about 350/4 kt. Cristobal is currently situated
near a col between 2 anticyclones in the mid-level flow, one over
the United States, and one over the central subtropical Atlantic.
The dynamical models indicate that, within a couple of days,
the steering of the tropical cyclone will become dominated by flow
on the northwest side of the Atlantic anticyclone and on the
southern side of a mid-latitude trough. Therefore, the motion is
expected to gradually bend to the right with some acceleration over
the next several days. The official track forecast is somewhat
faster than the previous one after 48 hours, but not as fast as the
latest dynamical model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0300Z 24.8N 73.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 25.4N 73.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 26.4N 72.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 26/1200Z 27.8N 72.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 27/0000Z 29.8N 71.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 28/0000Z 33.5N 69.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 29/0000Z 37.5N 62.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 30/0000Z 44.0N 50.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014
500 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

Cristobal is a sheared tropical cyclone with all of the associated
convection located over the southeastern portion of the
circulation. During the past few hours, deep convection has formed a
little closer to the center and reconnaissance aircraft data
indicate that Cristobal has strengthened a little. The Air
Force Reserve aircraft has measured peak 850 mb flight-level winds
of 55 kt, and believable SFMR winds of around 45 kt. Therefore, the
initial wind speed is set at 45 kt for this advisory. The north
to northwesterly vertical wind shear that has been affecting the
cyclone is forecast to decrease during the next day or so. This
should allow a more favorable environment for strengthening. The
NHC intensity forecast brings Cristobal to hurricane intensity in
a couple of days, which is close to the SHIPS guidance and model
consensus. Late in the forecast period, Cristobal is expected to
become an extratropical cyclone.

Aircraft fixes between 0000 and 0600 UTC showed that the cyclone
meandered southeastward or a center reformation occurred. The last
few fixes indicate that Cristobal has resumed a slow northward
motion of about 3 kt. The tropical storm is expected to begin
moving north-northeastward today ahead of a mid- to upper-level
trough between Bermuda and the United States east coast. By
Tuesday the trough is forecast to lift out and Cristobal should
begin moving faster north-northeastward around the western
periphery of a building ridge over the central Atlantic. Later in
the period, the cyclone should turn northeastward and accelerate
when another trough approaches the coast of the northeastern United
States. The track guidance has shifted eastward during the first
48 hours, and the official forecast has been adjusted accordingly.
After that time, the track is similar to, but faster than, the
previous advisory since the track guidance has once again trended
toward a faster northeastward motion.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0900Z 24.5N 72.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 25.2N 72.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 26/0600Z 26.8N 71.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 26/1800Z 29.3N 70.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 27/0600Z 31.5N 70.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 28/0600Z 35.2N 66.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 29/0600Z 40.5N 53.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 30/0600Z 48.5N 41.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014
800 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

...CRISTOBAL STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD
AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.7N 72.8W
ABOUT 115 MI...195 KM ENE OF SAN SALVADOR
ABOUT 715 MI...1155 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG
ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR

INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CRISTOBAL.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL
WAS LOCATED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 24.7
NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.8 WEST. CRISTOBAL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH
NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT A SLIGHTLY
FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
MOTION WITH A FURTHER INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF CRISTOBAL IS FORECAST
TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS THROUGH TONIGHT.

REPORTS FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60
MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND CRISTOBAL COULD BECOME A
HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220
KM...PRIMARILY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY MEASURED BY AIR FORCE
RESERVE AND NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 994 MB...29.36 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...CRISTOBAL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AS WELL AS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD STILL OCCUR OVER PORTIONS
OF THE WARNING AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING. STRONG GUSTY WINDS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS THIS MORNING.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014
1100 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

...CRISTOBAL MOVING ERRATICALLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...
...HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.6N 72.7W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM ENE OF SAN SALVADOR
ABOUT 715 MI...1150 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

NONE.

INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CRISTOBAL.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.7 WEST.
CRISTOBAL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
FORECAST TO OCCUR ON TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
CRISTOBAL IS FORECAST TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS THROUGH TUESDAY
AND PASS WEST OF BERMUDA ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND CRISTOBAL COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...
220 KM...PRIMARILY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.33 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...CRISTOBAL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AS WELL AS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. MINOR
FLOODING HAS BEEN REPORTED NEAR PIRATES COVE ON MAYAGUANA ISLAND
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART



TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014
1100 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

Cristobal remains a sheared tropical cyclone with the low-level
center fully exposed on the north side of the deep convective cloud
mass. Earlier reconnaissance data indicated maximum 850 mb
flight-level winds of 61 kt in the southeast quadrant where SFMR
winds of near 50 kt were observed. Therefore, the initial intensity
has been increased to 50 kt. A NOAA aircraft reported a central
pressure of 996 mb, but the dropsonde also reported a 33-kt surface
wind. As a result, the central pressure is estimated to be 993 mb.

Aircraft fixes indicate that Cristobal is moving erratically
north-northeastward or 015/02 kt. Strong northerly shear has been
impeding the forward motion of Cristobal for the past several hours
by keeping the deep convection displaced to the south of the center,
and this is expected to continue through today. On Tuesday, however,
a deep trough just of the U.S. east coast is forecast to capture
Cristobal and gradually lift out the cyclone to the northeast while
the Bermuda-Azores ridge builds westward to the south of the system.
The NHC model guidance is in very good agreement on this developing
scenario with only minor differences in forward speed. The official
track forecast is similar to the previous advisory track, and lies
close to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF solutions.

The GFS-based SHIPS model indicates northerly shear of 23 kt has
been affecting Cristobal. The shear is forecast to gradually subside
to around 10 kt during the next 12-24 hours, during which time some
slight strengthening could occur. However, by 48-72 hours, the shear
is forecast to decrease more significantly, allowing Cristobal to
strengthen further, becoming a hurricane as the cyclone passes to
the west and north of Bermuda on Wednesday and Thursday. On Days 4
and 5, Cristobal will be passing over much cooler waters and
encountering strong southwesterly wind shear as the cyclone becomes
embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies, which will result in
extratropical transition by 120 hours.

Owing to the slow motion of Cristobal, heavy rainfall and possible
flooding will remain a threat for the southeastern Bahamas and the
Turks and Caicos through Tuesday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/1500Z 24.6N 72.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 26.0N 72.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 26/1200Z 27.8N 71.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 27/0000Z 30.0N 70.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 27/1200Z 32.2N 69.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 28/1200Z 36.5N 63.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 29/1200Z 42.7N 50.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 30/1200Z 49.5N 39.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 9...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014
500 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

Corrected forecast motion through 72 hours

Cristobal remains in a moderate shear environment with the low-level
center still fully exposed on the north side of the deep convection.
A recent Air Force Reserve reconnaissance flight indicated maximum
850 mb flight-level winds of 65 kt in the southeast quadrant where
SFMR winds of 51 kt were noted, and the central pressure has
remained at 993 mb. Based on these data, the initial intensity has
been held at 50 kt.

Aircraft fixes indicate that Cristobal is now moving at a more
reliable north-northeastward motion of 020/04 kt. There is no
significant change to the previous forecast track or reasoning. The
latest NHC model guidance continues to be in excellent agreement on
the subtropical ridge to the north of Cristobal slowly eroding
due to a strong mid/upper-level trough just off the U.S. southeast
coast continuing to dig southward as noted in water vapor imagery.
The combination of increasing southwesterly flow on the east side of
the trough and a building ridge to the south of the cyclone should
act to lift Cristobal slowly northeastward over the next 72 hours.
After that, Cristobal is forecast to become embedded in deep
mid-latitude westerlies and accelerate off to the northeast and
east-northeast, becoming a large and powerful extratropical cyclone
over the far north Atlantic by 120 hours. The official forecast
track is essentially just an update of the previous advisory track,
and lies just to the right of the consensus model TVCA.

The shear is forecast to ebb and flow over the next 48 hours or so,
and the intensity forecast has followed this trend with
strengthening indicated during the periods when the vertical shear
subsides. Cristobal is still expected to become a hurricane when the
cyclone passes to the west and north of Bermuda on Wednesday and
Thursday. On Days 4 and 5, Cristobal will be passing over much
cooler waters and encountering strong southwesterly wind shear as
the cyclone becomes embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies, which
will result in extratropical transition by 120 hours. However, the
system is likely to receive a boost from baroclinic effects,
remaining as a strong extratropical cyclone.

Owing to the slow motion of Cristobal, heavy rainfall and possible
flooding will remain a threat for the southeastern Bahamas and the
Turks and Caicos through Tuesday. Heavy rainfall is expected to
continue across Bermuda through Wednesday ahead of Cristobal.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/2100Z 25.3N 72.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 26.6N 71.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 28.9N 71.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 27/0600Z 31.2N 70.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 27/1800Z 33.4N 68.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 28/1800Z 38.1N 60.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 29/1800Z 44.3N 47.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 30/1800Z 51.5N 34.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014
800 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

...CRISTOBAL STRENGTHENING WHILE SLOWLY MEANDERING...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.0N 72.0W
ABOUT 665 MI...1075 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 100 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.



DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.0 WEST.
CRISTOBAL HAS BEEN MEANDERING IN A GENERALLY EASTWARD DIRECTION
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT A SLOW NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO RESUME OVERNIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST TO OCCUR ON TUESDAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF CRISTOBAL WILL MOVE AWAY FROM
THE BAHAMAS THROUGH TUESDAY...AND PASS TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF
BERMUDA ON WEDNESDAY.

REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70
MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND CRISTOBAL IS LIKELY
TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...
335 KM...PRIMARILY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY MEASURED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...CRISTOBAL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AS WELL
AS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON BERMUDA BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[HurricaneBelle]

Should post this in here as well:

HURRICANE CRISTOBAL TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014
820 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

...CRISTOBAL BECOMES A HURRICANE...

REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
CRISTOBAL HAS STRENGTHENED INTO A HURRICANE. THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED TO BE 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.


SUMMARY OF 820 PM EDT...0020 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.0N 71.9W
ABOUT 660 MI...1065 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 100 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE CRISTOBAL ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014
1100 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

...CRISTOBAL EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE WEST OF BERMUDA ON WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.1N 71.9W
ABOUT 655 MI...1055 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.9 WEST. CRISTOBAL
IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H. A
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...AND A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER
OF CRISTOBAL WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS THROUGH TUESDAY...AND
PASS TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF BERMUDA ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...CRISTOBAL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND 10 INCHES
POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION TO ONGOING RAINFALL...CRISTOBAL IS EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER
BERMUDA.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON BERMUDA BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH




HURRICANE CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014
1100 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

Based on a blend of SFMR, flight-level, and dropsonde wind data
collected by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft a little earlier this
evening, Cristobal was upgraded to a 65-kt hurricane. Similar to
Hurricane Bertha earlier this year in roughly the same location,
this system's cloud pattern does not resemble that of a hurricane,
with little or no evidence of banding on satellite images. Some
additional strengthening is expected, however, since the SHIPS
guidance shows a decrease in vertical shear during the next few
days, and an increase in upper-level divergence is indicated by the
global models. The official intensity forecast is a little higher
than the previous one, and is close to the latest LGEM guidance.

The center fixes by the NOAA aircraft indicated an eastward wobble
several hours ago, but recent satellite imagery hints that a slow
north-northeastward motion has resumed. The initial motion estimate
is a rather uncertain 030/2 kt. In spite of the erratic motion and
eastward shift of the center, the track model guidance remains in
good agreement that Cristobal will move along a track similar to the
previous NHC forecast. Over the next couple of days, the hurricane
is expected to move through a weakness between two mid-level high
pressure areas. Thereafter, as Cristobal begins to enter the
mid-latitude westerlies and a shortwave trough moves off the
northeast United States coastline, the tropical cyclone should
accelerate northeastward into the North Atlantic. The current
official forecast is not much different from the previous one, and
close to the GFS ensemble mean solution.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0300Z 25.1N 71.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 26/1200Z 26.9N 71.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 27/0000Z 29.3N 70.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 27/1200Z 31.8N 70.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 28/0000Z 34.0N 68.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 29/0000Z 39.0N 58.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 30/0000Z 45.0N 45.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 31/0000Z 51.0N 35.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014
500 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

As indicated by my predecessor, Cristobal's cloud pattern is not
typical of a hurricane on IR images. The convection is quite
linear and the system appears to be embedded within the tail of a
frontal zone. However, an reconnaissance planes recently measured
winds of 73 kt at flight level and a minimum central pressure of 987
mb. This supports an initial intensity of 65 knots. Most of the
global models intensify the cyclone, and given that the
shear is gradually decreasing, the NHC forecast calls for some
strengthening at a rate very close to the latest intensity consensus
model ICON. By day 4, Cristobal is expected to be over cooler waters
losing tropical characteristics.

Cristobal has been meandering during the past 12 hours or
more, but recently, it has begun to move toward the north at about
10 knots. The cyclone is located at the base of a narrow
mid-latitude trough, and squeezed between the Atlantic subtropical
ridge and a high pressure over the United States. Most of the global
models show that the flow around the western side of the Atlantic
ridge will steer the cyclone northward for the next 36 hours or
so. Cristobal will then encounter the mid-latitude westerlies and
turn to the northeast with an increase in forward speed. The
guidance in general shifted slightly to the west in the latest run
due to a small expansion of the Atlantic ridge. The NHC track
forecast was also adjusted slightly westward during the
next 24 to 36 hours, following the multi-model consensus, and
placed very close to the consensus between the EMCWF and the GFS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0900Z 26.0N 71.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 26/1800Z 28.1N 71.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 27/0600Z 30.6N 71.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 27/1800Z 32.6N 70.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 28/0600Z 35.0N 68.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 29/0600Z 41.0N 55.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 30/0600Z 48.0N 40.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 31/0600Z 57.0N 30.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Avila

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014
1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

The center of Cristobal is partially exposed to the northwest of the
deep convection. Analyses from UW-CIMSS and the SHIPS model show
about 20 kt of west-northwesterly shear over Cristobal and dry air
has wrapped into the southwestern quadrant of the circulation as the
cyclone interacts with a mid/upper-level trough to its west. The
initial intensity remains 65 kt based on data from the last NOAA
Hurricane Hunter aircraft mission. Model guidance indicates that the
upper-level winds will become less hostile during the next day or so
as Cristobal moves underneath and then north of the aforementioned
trough, which should allow for some intensification. The NHC
forecast shows Cristobal peaking in 36-48 hours in agreement with
the latest IVCN intensity consensus. After that time, Cristobal
will be moving over cooler waters and into a higher shear
environment, which should result in the system losing tropical
characteristics in about 3 days. However, as this occurs the global
models show Cristobal moving in a favorable position for baroclinic
intensification ahead of a mid-latitude trough. This should result
in Cristobal transitioning to a powerful extratropical cyclone over
the north Atlantic late in the period.

The initial motion estimate is 010/10, as Cristobal is currently
being pulled slowly northward by the mid/upper-level trough situated
east of Florida. During the next day or so Cristobal will begin
moving north-northeastward around the western side of the Atlantic
subtropical ridge. Then the cyclone should accelerate into the
mid-latitude westerlies during the remainder of the forecast period.
Overall, the track model guidance remains in good agreement on this
scenario. The new NHC track has been shifted a little to the west,
or left, of the previous one through 48 hours and lies along the
eastern edge of the guidance envelope. After that time, the NHC
forecast is largely an update of the previous one and is close to
the multi-model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/1500Z 27.2N 71.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 29.4N 71.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 27/1200Z 31.9N 70.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 28/0000Z 33.9N 69.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 28/1200Z 36.4N 65.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 29/1200Z 43.0N 51.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 30/1200Z 50.0N 37.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 31/1200Z 58.0N 26.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Brennan