CPAC: INVEST 94C

[Yellow Evan]

Structure wise it's there.

Needs to maintain convection.

It lost its LLC though.

[Yellow Evan]

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 29 31 32 36 38 41 41 42 43
V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 29 31 32 36 38 41 41 42 43
V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 26 27 28 29 30
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 6 6 8 9 9 6 7 9 14 12 16 13 13
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 7 5 4 4 2 4 -1 -2 -1 -1 0 1
SHEAR DIR 103 85 83 99 96 89 84 77 90 72 68 78 74
SST (C) 27.3 27.2 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.2 27.3 27.2 27.1 27.0 27.1 27.3

[Equilibrium]

Under TCFA

http://www.ral.ucar.edu/guidance/realti ... /cp942014/
At 0000 UTC, 17 August 2014, DISTURBANCE INVEST (CP94) was located in the North Central Pacific basin at 14.7°N and 140.6°W. The current intensity was 25 kt and the center was moving at 4 kt at a bearing of 345 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Yellow Evan]

Hmm, not all hope is lost yet.

[Equilibrium]

Appears to have established a really nice outflow over the past few hours .


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Equilibrium]

WTPN21 PHNC 161930
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.1N 139.9W TO 15.5N 143.1W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 161830Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.2N 140.6W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 14.2N 140.6W,
APPROXIMATELY 878 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAWAII. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT FLARING DEEP
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. A 161405Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS
FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY WRAPPING TOWARDS THE CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS NOW LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH LOW (05 TO 10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (26 TO 28 DEGREES
CELSIUS) ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KTS. MAXIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. DUE TO THE INCREASED CONSOLIDATION OF
THE LLCC AND IMPROVING ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.

[Yellow Evan]

Still not certain for development. It's lost a lot of model support. I've noticed the past two days, it's improved at night, but degraded during the day.

[Yellow Evan]

1. An area of disturbed weather about 960 miles east-southeast Hilo, Hawaii, is moving to the west-northwest at 10 mph. Scattered thunderstorms in this area remain disorganized. However environmental conditions may support development of a tropical cyclone during the next couple of days.* Formation chance through 48 hours, high, 60 percent.

[Equilibrium]

Still not certain for development. It's lost a lot of model support. I've noticed the past two days, it's improved at night, but degraded during the day.

Yeah very true been much the same as the other systems very roller coaster like.but i do think it will start cranking.


Upper level divergence is very good should should give this a good crack at intensification .

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST CP942014 08/17/14 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 23 24 26 31 35 42 45 46 44 45
V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 23 24 26 31 35 42 45 46 44 45
V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 24 24 24 25 27 30 32 34 35 36
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 8 9 9 7 5 7 4 8 15 21 22 27 18
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 3 2 2 2 2 2 0 -1 0 0 -3 0
SHEAR DIR 103 100 91 100 74 102 67 86 53 66 59 80 89
SST (C) 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8

[hurricanes1234]

Is this invest alive?

[Yellow Evan]

Is this invest alive?

Yes, still has a decent chance IMO now that's it is in a very good environment. GFS does not develop this, but UKMET, Euro, FIM, and CMC all do.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Kingarabian]

Looks terrible.

[Yellow Evan]

Being a bit puzzling on what this is not forecast to develop

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST CP942014 08/17/14 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 28 27 29 33 36 40 42 43 43 43
V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 28 27 29 33 36 40 42 43 43 43
V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 29 29 28 28 29 31 33 35 37 38 38
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 9 11 10 7 4 4 7 10 15 19 21 28 26
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 1 0 0 1 0 0 -3 -2 0 -1 0
SHEAR DIR 97 88 104 112 107 79 77 81 83 92 93 109 112
SST (C) 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.4 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.9

[Kingarabian]

[hurricanes1234]

It really looks bad now, very little convection and what seems to be an exposed circulation.

[Yellow Evan]

It really looks bad now, very little convection and what seems to be an exposed circulation.

To its credit, it is well-organized and has 30 knt winds.

[hurricanes1234]

1. A low pressure center about 900 miles east-southeast Hilo, Hawaii, was nearly stationary. Isolated thunderstorms near this system remain disorganized. Environmental conditions may support development of a tropical cyclone during the next couple of days.* Formation chance through 48 hours, medium, 40 percent.

[Equilibrium]

WTPN21 PHNC 171930
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/161921Z AUG 14//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.2N
140.6W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 142.0W, APPROXIMATELY 800 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAWAII. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS WEAKENED DEEP CONVECTION OVER A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 171352Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS
THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT WITH
CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING INTO
THE LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE HAS
REMAINED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (05 TO 10 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AT 26 TO 28 DEGREES CELSIUS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO
25 KTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB.
DUE TO THE WELL-STRUCTURED LLCC, PERSISTENT FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITONS AND SLOW ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS
HIGH


94C INVEST 140817 1800 15.0N 142.0W CPAC 30 1008

[Equilibrium]

looks a bit tricky as to what to expect further ahead.