ATL: ARTHUR - Models

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ATL: ARTHUR - Models

#1 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jun 28, 2014 7:45 am

1 KWBC 281242
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1242 UTC SAT JUN 28 2014

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912014) 20140628 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
140628 1200 140629 0000 140629 1200 140630 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 32.5N 78.6W 32.1N 78.7W 31.6N 79.0W 31.1N 79.3W
BAMD 32.5N 78.6W 32.1N 78.5W 31.7N 78.9W 31.4N 79.2W
BAMM 32.5N 78.6W 32.2N 78.5W 31.8N 78.8W 31.4N 79.1W
LBAR 32.5N 78.6W 32.1N 77.5W 31.6N 76.5W 31.2N 75.7W
SHIP 20KTS 24KTS 27KTS 32KTS
DSHP 20KTS 24KTS 27KTS 32KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
140630 1200 140701 1200 140702 1200 140703 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 30.7N 79.8W 30.4N 80.9W 30.6N 81.8W 31.6N 81.9W
BAMD 31.2N 79.6W 31.0N 80.8W 31.7N 82.1W 33.5N 81.9W
BAMM 31.1N 79.4W 30.9N 80.4W 31.3N 81.4W 32.7N 80.9W
LBAR 30.9N 75.0W 31.0N 73.5W 32.2N 72.4W 35.0N 71.1W
SHIP 36KTS 43KTS 47KTS 51KTS
DSHP 36KTS 43KTS 41KTS 29KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 32.5N LONCUR = 78.6W DIRCUR = 125DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 33.4N LONM12 = 80.1W DIRM12 = 129DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 34.3N LONM24 = 81.3W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 15KT
CENPRS = 1016MB OUTPRS = 1018MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

Image
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#2 Postby NDG » Sat Jun 28, 2014 8:13 am

SHIPS show fairly low windshear, but not sure if I agree with the BAM models taking it inland before being possibly picked up the trough next week.

Code: Select all

 *   ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST       *
                    * GOES AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE       *
                    *      INVEST  AL912014  06/28/14  12 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    20    22    24    25    27    32    36    40    43    46    47    49    51
V (KT) LAND       20    22    24    25    27    32    36    40    43    46    41    33    29
V (KT) LGE mod    20    20    21    22    23    25    28    32    36    42    41    33    29
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)        13    12    15    11     7     9     7    10     6     7     4     4     1
SHEAR ADJ (KT)    -4    -6    -4     0    -1    -2    -4    -4    -4    -5    -6    -2    -4
SHEAR DIR        313   311   320   343   322   321   354   350    51    26    54    82   200
SST (C)         26.6  26.7  26.7  26.7  26.7  26.7  26.7  26.8  26.9  26.9  26.8  26.5  26.1
POT. INT. (KT)   117   116   117   117   117   117   117   118   119   119   118   116   112
ADJ. POT. INT.    97    95    95    96    96    96    96    97    98    98    98    96    93
200 MB T (C)   -56.3 -56.1 -55.7 -55.7 -55.8 -55.3 -55.4 -54.8 -54.7 -54.4 -54.5 -54.1 -54.3
TH_E DEV (C)       5     6     7     5     5     8     7    10     9    13    10    13     7
700-500 MB RH     64    66    63    61    63    62    65    63    65    60    63    65    57
GFS VTEX (KT)      6     6     6     6     6     7     7     6     6     5     5     4     3
850 MB ENV VOR   -71   -55   -67   -90   -85   -76   -67   -74   -77   -62   -54   -20     1
200 MB DIV        -6     0   -23   -10    -9    -8    -1     4     7    25    24    23    53
700-850 TADV      -5    -5    -3     1    -5    -2     0     2     0     2     0     2     0
LAND (KM)        100   114   129   136   148   172   179   140   100    52    -4   -43   -43
LAT (DEG N)     32.5  32.4  32.2  32.0  31.8  31.4  31.1  31.0  30.9  31.0  31.3  32.0  32.7
LONG(DEG W)     78.6  78.6  78.5  78.7  78.8  79.1  79.4  79.9  80.4  80.9  81.4  81.5  80.9
STM SPEED (KT)     4     2     2     2     2     2     2     2     2     2     3     4     4
HEAT CONTENT      16    20    25    29    30    30    28    20    15    14     5     0     0

  FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):125/  7      CX,CY:   6/ -3
  T-12 MAX WIND:  15            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  507  (MEAN=624)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  22.8 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  41.0 (MEAN=65.0)
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#3 Postby gatorcane » Sat Jun 28, 2014 8:49 am

As folks have mentioned, 91L is in the only area across the Atlantic basin that has favorable upper-level winds.

06Z GFS wind shear graphic:
Image
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#4 Postby NDG » Sat Jun 28, 2014 10:31 am

Crazy NAM continuous with its solution of 91L getting very close to Cape Canaveral by Monday night/Tuesday morning.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#5 Postby NDG » Sat Jun 28, 2014 1:25 pm

12z Euro has 91L coming much closer to the east coast of FL, if not to the coast. Waiting for for had version to confirm.
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ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#6 Postby HurriGuy » Sat Jun 28, 2014 1:27 pm

New EURO much closer to Florida. Right on the edge of being soaked on the shore. 6- 8 inches positioned just offshore.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#7 Postby supercane4867 » Sat Jun 28, 2014 1:30 pm

Becoming a solid TS by day 5 on 12z ECMWF
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#8 Postby Alyono » Sat Jun 28, 2014 1:33 pm

New EC MUCH more INTENSE
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Re:

#9 Postby lester » Sat Jun 28, 2014 1:36 pm

Alyono wrote:New EC MUCH more INTENSE


Yep.

Image
Last edited by lester on Sat Jun 28, 2014 1:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#10 Postby HurriGuy » Sat Jun 28, 2014 1:37 pm

Strong tropical storm effecting Carolinas this run.
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#11 Postby HurriGuy » Sat Jun 28, 2014 1:40 pm

Wind gust would be at hurricane force according to euro
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#12 Postby supercane4867 » Sat Jun 28, 2014 1:40 pm

At 156HR has a hurricane heads toward the Carolina coast :eek:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#13 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jun 28, 2014 1:44 pm

SHIP ups the intensity at 18z.

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1836 UTC SAT JUN 28 2014

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912014) 20140628 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
140628 1800 140629 0600 140629 1800 140630 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 32.1N 78.2W 31.5N 78.1W 30.8N 78.2W 30.3N 78.3W
BAMD 32.1N 78.2W 31.4N 78.2W 30.8N 78.5W 30.4N 78.8W
BAMM 32.1N 78.2W 31.5N 78.2W 30.9N 78.4W 30.5N 78.7W
LBAR 32.1N 78.2W 31.5N 77.3W 30.9N 76.7W 30.7N 76.2W
SHIP 20KTS 25KTS 30KTS 34KTS
DSHP 20KTS 25KTS 30KTS 34KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
140630 1800 140701 1800 140702 1800 140703 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 30.2N 78.6W 31.0N 79.1W 32.3N 79.4W 34.6N 78.1W
BAMD 30.3N 79.3W 30.4N 80.6W 31.4N 82.2W 33.4N 82.4W
BAMM 30.3N 79.0W 30.7N 79.8W 31.6N 80.7W 33.5N 80.0W
LBAR 30.5N 76.0W 31.2N 75.8W 32.9N 75.8W 35.5N 74.2W
SHIP 40KTS 47KTS 50KTS 50KTS
DSHP 40KTS 47KTS 50KTS 33KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 32.1N LONCUR = 78.2W DIRCUR = 130DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 32.9N LONM12 = 79.4W DIRM12 = 125DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 33.8N LONM24 = 80.7W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 80NM WNDM12 = 15KT
CENPRS = 1017MB OUTPRS = 1018MB OUTRAD = 90NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#14 Postby floridasun78 » Sat Jun 28, 2014 1:47 pm

Euro have hurr moving toward central fl that look wrong
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Re: Re:

#15 Postby floridasun78 » Sat Jun 28, 2014 1:50 pm

lester wrote:
Alyono wrote:New EC MUCH more INTENSE


Yep.

Image
look wrong it likely wont be that strong
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Re: Re:

#16 Postby AdamFirst » Sat Jun 28, 2014 2:01 pm

lester wrote:
Alyono wrote:New EC MUCH more INTENSE


Yep.


What time frame is that?
Last edited by AdamFirst on Sat Jun 28, 2014 2:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Re:

#17 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Sat Jun 28, 2014 2:12 pm

floridasun78 wrote:
lester wrote:
Alyono wrote:New EC MUCH more INTENSE


Yep.

Image
look wrong it likely wont be that strong

What looks wrong about it? It shows what can happen to a disturbance with several days over warm waters and in an environment of low shear and an abundance of moisture.
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Re: Re:

#18 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Jun 28, 2014 2:17 pm

TropicalAnalystwx13 wrote:
floridasun78 wrote:
lester wrote:
Yep.

Image
look wrong it likely wont be that strong

What looks wrong about it? It shows what can happen to a disturbance with several days over warm waters and in an environment of low shear and an abundance of moisture.

Looks similar to what happened to STS/TS Beryl two years ago as it moved over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream and blossomed into almost a hurricane!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#19 Postby ronjon » Sat Jun 28, 2014 2:23 pm

Euro has weak cyclone very near Melbourne at 72 hrs. Then moves it slowly north along 80W the next two days.
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#20 Postby bamajammer4eva » Sat Jun 28, 2014 2:38 pm

Wow! That isn't supposed to happen this season. Does the Euro not know this is an El Nino year??
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