WPAC: HAGIBIS - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

Well this is looking very similiar to subtropical storm 94W. I think 95W could intensify into a warm core tropical system if it can manage to detache itself from the front but if it doesn't then this will likely become a cold core baroclinic front...

[Meow]

This will not be like Tropical Storm Mitag.


‘Eyewall’

[euro6208]

Love these detailed analysis maps. 95W clearly connected to a stationary front and forecast calls for a low pressure area as it nears japan...These kind of systems can still pack a punch similiar to tropical systems.

Be safe all...

[Meow]

JMA has forecasted that the tropical depression (95W) will make landfall within 36 hours. It has very low chance to become an extratropical cyclone unless finishing extratropical transition before dissipation.

[euro6208]

As of Friday morning, EDT, a developing area of low pressure near the Island of Luzon in the northern Philippines. At this point. The latest satellite imagery shows a broad area of low-level circulation along with some deeper convection. This feature is situated along a frontal boundary that has stalled out across the South China Sea. Regardless of development, this system is forecast to drift north-northeastward over the next few days along the stalled front and it is expected to bring heavy rain to Taiwan causing flooding and mudslides on Friday and early Saturday.

Will likely become frontal by the time it reaches taiwan but massive rains and strong winds will likely be an issue...

ACCUWEATHER:

http://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/west-pacific

[euro6208]

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert!

WTPN21 PGTW 140200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
105 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 20.3N 117.0E TO 24.1N 117.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 140000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 20.7N 117.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 20.0N
117.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 117.0E, APPROXIMATELY 190 NM
SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING PERSISTING ALONG THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF A BROAD, BUT CONSOLIDATING, LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THIS DISTURBANCE HAS A MONSOON DEPRESSION
STRUCTURE WITH 30 TO 35 KNOT WINDS OBSERVED WELL TO THE EAST OF
THE CIRCULATION CENTER AND A BROAD CORE OF WEAKER WINDS (20-25
KNOTS). A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW PREVIOUSLY LOCATED OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY
WESTWARD, ALLOWING DIVERGENCE OVER THE LLCC TO INCREASE DURING THE
PAST 12 HOURS. ALTHOUGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS MODERATE, RECENT
IMPROVEMENT IN LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE SUGGESTS THAT TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION PRIOR TO ANTICIPATED LANDFALL IN SOUTHEASTERN CHINA IS
INCREASINGLY PROBABLE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 996 MB. GIVEN THE LOW OBSERVED CENTRAL PRESSURE AND IMPROVING
UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
150200Z.//
NNNN

20140614 0232 20.5 -117.5 T1.0/1.0 95W 95W

[euro6208]

GFS and EURO both agree on a landfall southern china storm in 2 days but GFS has a much stronger storm at landfall and more west than EURO,,

[stormcruisin]

Intensity is actually closer to 30 knots atm.


95W INVEST 140614 0000 20.7N 117.0E WPAC 20 996

[richard-K2013]

Tropical storm HAGIBIS has formed!!.....

** WTPQ20 RJTD 140600 ***
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1407 HAGIBIS (1407) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 140600UTC 20.9N 116.8E POOR
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 210NM SOUTH 180NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 150600UTC 22.7N 117.2E 85NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 160600UTC 25.2N 117.6E 160NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 170600UTC 27.4N 118.8E 220NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

[euro6208]

The alert has been taken off JTWC and been changed to 07W.SEVEN on NAVY/FNMOC websites!

We will have our 7th TC of the season!

[stormcruisin]

07W HAGIBIS 140614 0600 20.7N 117.0E WPAC 35 996



Centre still looks ill-defined atm.

[euro6208]

Up to 40 knots!

[euro6208]

Detailed analysis on the current and future state of Tropical Storm Hagibis...


WDPN31 PGTW 141500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 07W (HAGIBIS) WARNING
NR 02//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (HAGIBIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 172 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 141152Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGE
DEPICTS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A MICROWAVE EYE
FEATURE, THEREFORE, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT
POSITION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON
RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA AS WELL AS THE IMPROVED CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN LOWER THAN THE
OBSERVATIONAL DATA. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS HAVE CONTINUED TO IMPROVE
WITH INCREASING POLEWARD VENTING INTO THE WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH
AND VIGOROUS EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. TS 07W IS TRACKING SLOWLY
NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 07W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWARD THROUGH TAU
36 THEN THE SYSTEM SHOULD TURN SHARPLY NORTHEASTWARD AS IT TRACKS
POLEWARD OF THE STR AXIS INTO THE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES. DYNAMIC
GUIDANCE IS NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE
TIMING OF THE NORTHEAST TURN. GFDN IS THE SOLE OUTLIER WITH AN
UNREALISTIC NORTHWARD TRACK. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF COAMPS-TC, ALL
THESE MODELS INDICATE DISSIPATION OVER LAND. COAMPS-TC AND HWRF
INDICATE A SHARPER EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TURN THAT TAKES THE SYSTEM
OVER WATER. CONSEQUENTLY, BOTH THESE MODELS RE-INTENSIFY THE SYSTEM
AFTER TAU 72. THIS SCENARIO IS DEEMED UNLIKELY AND THE JTWC FORECAST
CONTINUES TO FAVOR A NORTHWARD TRACK OVER LAND AND THE DISSIPATION
SCENARIO. BASED ON SUPPORTING UPPER-AIR DATA AND THE IMPROVED
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE BULK OF THE DYNAMIC TRACKERS, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. TS 07W IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS BY TAU 12 BUT IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE OVER LAND PRIOR TO THE REMNANTS RE-
EMERGING OVER THE EAST CHINA SEA AFTER TAU 48.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

TS 07W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWARD, MAKING LANDFALL JUST AFTER TAU 12 AND THEN SHOULD SHARPLY TURN NORTHEASTWARD AS IT TRACKS AROUND THE STR AXIS INTO THE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES. TS 07W IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH LAND AND IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER LAND PRIOR TO THE REMNANTS RE-EMERGING OVER THE EAST CHINA SEA AFTER TAU 36. NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LANDFALL WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES AFTERWARDS IN THE TIMING OF THE NORTHEAST TURN. COAMPS-TC CONTINUES TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH AN UNLIKELY TRACK TOWARDS NORTHERN TAIWAN. THE JTWC FORECAST CONTINUES TO FAVOR A NORTHWARD TRACK INTO LAND AND THE DISSIPATION SCENARIO, AS DO THE BULK OF THE DYNAMIC TRACKERS. BASED ON THE TIGHT MODEL PACKING, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I wonder if this could be another STS.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

The location/position of the storm center is better and more well-defined than of the previous updates and warnings, but the JMA still puts the intensity to 35 kts.

[HURAKAN]

Just a large monsoon low pressure system

[euro6208]

45 knots...

WDPN31 PGTW 150300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 07W (HAGIBIS) WARNING
NR 04//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (HAGIBIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 145 NM
EAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) ALONG WITH
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) SHOWS TS HAGIBIS HAS
CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE AS BANDING HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE
DEFINED DESPITE THE CONVECTION BECOMING MORE SHALLOW. THIS
CONSOLIDATION IS FURTHER SUPPORTED BY A 142100Z SSMIS 37 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS A WEAK BUT SYMMETRIC EYE FEATURE. THERE
IS INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE TIGHTLY
WRAPPED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER SEEN IN THE MSI LOOP. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 45 KNOTS BASED ON THE
STRUCTURE SEEN IN THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE AS DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN LOW DUE TO THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE
CONVECTION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS AN UNCHANGED ENVIRONMENT AS
MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO OFFSET
RECENTLY ESTABLISHED POLEWARD AND CONTINUED VIGOROUS EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW. TS 07W IS TRACKING SLOWLY NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 07W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWARD, MAKING
LANDFALL JUST AFTER TAU 12 AND THEN SHOULD SHARPLY TURN
NORTHEASTWARD AS IT TRACKS AROUND THE STR AXIS INTO THE UPPER-LEVEL
WESTERLIES. TS 07W IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST AS THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH LAND AND IS FORECAST TO
DISSIPATE OVER LAND PRIOR TO THE REMNANTS RE-EMERGING OVER THE EAST
CHINA SEA AFTER TAU 36. NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH LANDFALL WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES
AFTERWARDS IN THE TIMING OF THE NORTHEAST TURN. COAMPS-TC CONTINUES
TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH AN UNLIKELY TRACK TOWARDS NORTHERN TAIWAN. THE
JTWC FORECAST CONTINUES TO FAVOR A NORTHWARD TRACK INTO LAND AND THE
DISSIPATION SCENARIO, AS DO THE BULK OF THE DYNAMIC TRACKERS. BASED
ON THE TIGHT MODEL PACKING, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

07W HAGIBIS 140615 0600 22.8N 116.9E WPAC 40 993




WDPN31 PGTW 150900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 07W (HAGIBIS) WARNING
NR 05//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (HAGIBIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 153 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS AN EXPOSED, WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH ISOLATED AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. DESPITE THE
LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION, RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY REVEALS TIGHTLY-
WRAPPED, SHALLOW CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. BASED ON
THE MSI, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION AND RECENT
MOTION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON THE
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AND RECENT SHIP OBSERVATIONS. TS 07W IS
ACCELERATING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND IS MAKING LANDFALL AT THIS
TIME.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 07W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWARD THROUGH TAU
12 AND IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. AFTER
TAU 12, TS HAGIBIS WILL TURN SHARPLY NORTHEASTWARD AS IT TRACKS
AROUND THE STR AXIS INTO THE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES. TS 07W IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER LAND PRIOR TO THE REMNANTS RE-EMERGING
OVER THE EAST CHINA SEA AFTER TAU 36. TS 07W IS NOT EXPECTED TO
REGENERATE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE DUE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND BAROCLINICITY, HOWEVER, THE DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE AN EXTRA-
TROPICAL LOW RAPIDLY TRANSITING EASTWARD ACROSS THE EAST CHINA SEA.
BASED ON THE TIGHT MODEL GROUPING, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS.//
NNNN

[stormcruisin]