EPAC: AMANDA - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

Still pretty impressive. This system is FAR form finished.

[supercane4867]

Visible imagery before sunset

[Yellow Evan]

[JonathanBelles]

The eye has cleared out again, and intensity seems to at least temporarily leveled out.

[meriland23]

Apparently this is the strongest EPAC hurricane on record for May. I wonder what this means for the rest of the season when it comes to the PAC and ATL for Hurricanes?? Anyone?

[hurricanes1234]

The EPAC is forecast to be near normal to above normal. The Atlantic is forecast to have below normal activity. Both would be the result of the developing El Niño. Amanda's early season record intensity does not necessarily mean an active season. Take Hurricane Celia 2010 as an example - it was the second earliest Category 5, yet that season turned out to be the least active ever in EPAC by the time it ended.

Back on topic, Amanda is holding on tightly to that ring of red surrounding it. It also isn't weakening very quickly (roughly 10 mph in 6 hours).

[Yellow Evan]

Apparently this is the strongest EPAC hurricane on record for May. I wonder what this means for the rest of the season when it comes to the PAC and ATL for Hurricanes?? Anyone?

It is. It's too soon to tell. I don't think this changes much; we are still in an El Nino nevertheless.

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014
800 PM PDT SUN MAY 25 2014

Since Amanda peaked in intensity earlier today, there has been
some erosion of deep convection in the southwestern quadrant
of the cyclone, likely due to onset of moderate south-southwesterly
wind shear. A pronounced dry slot is also noted wrapping around the
southern half of the circulation in geostationary and microwave
imagery. Satellite intensity estimates have decreased slightly, and
the initial intensity is set to 125 kt, based on blend of Final-T
and CI numbers.

The initial motion is 335/03. The cyclone is located between a
mid-level ridge to the east-northeast and a mid-/upper-level trough
to the west. A weak deep-layer south-southeasterly to southerly
flow between these two features should steer Amanda north-
northwestward and then northward during the next few days. A turn
toward the north-northeast is forecast in about 72 hours when the
aforementioned mid- to upper-level trough approaches the
cyclone. After that time, a much weaker Amanda should stall or
begin to drift westward or southwestward as a shallow feature in the
trade wind flow. The model guidance this cycle has shifted westward
again, and the official forecast is adjusted in that direction. It
lies on the eastern side of the guidance envelope, nearly midway
between the previous forecast and the multi-model consensus TVCE
through 72 hours and south of the previous forecast late in the
period.

Moderate to strong south-southwesterly vertical wind shear,
combined with gradually decreasing sea surface temperatures along
the forecast track, should cause Amanda to quickly weaken during the
next few days. In about 3 days, the model guidance shows the low-
and mid-level circulations of Amanda decoupling as the cyclone
interacts with the trough to its west. The entrainment of
substantially drier and more stable air should then cause whatever
remains of Amanda to degenerate into a remnant low by day 5. The
official forecast is slightly lower than the previous one in the
short term and close to the multi-model consensus ICON.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0300Z 12.6N 111.4W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 26/1200Z 13.0N 111.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 27/0000Z 14.0N 111.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 27/1200Z 15.0N 112.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 28/0000Z 15.9N 112.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 29/0000Z 16.6N 112.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 30/0000Z 17.4N 111.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 31/0000Z 18.0N 111.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

[Yellow Evan]

Hmm, NHC shifting the track westward. Likely to stall near Soccoro Island.

[Meow]

Spectacular view of powerful Hurricane Amanda on May 25th 2014 around 16z

Uploaded the original size to Wikimedia(19.31MB)
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/ ... Amanda.png

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File ... Amanda.png

I have done adding a category and renaming.

[Yellow Evan]

Let's keep stuff related to Wikipedia on actual talkpages per Wiki rules.

Back to the storm, Amanda's starting to crumple apart. Oh well, it had a nice run. Really taught me a lot on EI, TC's in general, and estimating winds. Never thought this would be so much fun to track.

[Kingarabian]

Let's keep stuff related to Wikipedia on actual talkpages per Wiki rules.

Back to the storm, Amanda's starting to crumple apart. Oh well, it had a nice run. Really taught me a lot on EI, TC's in general, and estimating winds. Never thought this would be so much fun to track.

Crumple apart? It's still a Cat.4 Hurricane in my eyes. Nothing has changed since the last update.

[supercane4867]

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File ... Amanda.png

I have done adding a category and renaming.

Thanks for your help, I will be more cautious next time when I upload

[Ntxw]

It may not be a winning battle, but she's not going out without a little resistance

[Kingarabian]

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 260833
TCDEP1

HURRICANE AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014
200 AM PDT MON MAY 26 2014

Amanda has not changed much during the last several hours. The
eye of the hurricane, although slightly ragged in appearance at
times, remains evident with a ring of cold cloud tops surrounding
the center. Earlier microwave data showed a pronounced dry slot
wrapping into the eastern portion of the circulation, however, the
latest images suggest it might be, at least temporally, moistening
back up in that area. An average of the latest Dvorak
classifications from TAFB, SAB, and ADT values from UW-CIMSS support
an initial wind speed of 120 kt.

The hurricane is expected to weaken at a rapid pace beginning
later today due to the combined influences of southerly to
southwesterly shear, dry air intrusion, and decreasing sea surface
temperatures. Amanda is forecast to weaken to a remnant low in 4
to 5 days, when most of the models show the low- and mid-level
centers of the cyclone decoupling. The NHC intensity forecast is an
update of the previous one and is in line with the majority of the
guidance.

The system is moving slowly north-northwestward, and the latest
initial motion estimate is 340/4. This general motion is predicted
to continue for the next 48 hours while the hurricane remains
embedded in the flow between a trough to its west and a ridge to its
east over Mexico. Beyond a couple of days, the weakening tropical
cyclone is expected to drift northeastward or become stationary when
it is forecast to be more influenced by the low-level steering flow.
The NHC track forecast is nudged to the west to be in better
agreement with the latest consensus aids, TVCE and FSSE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0900Z 13.1N 111.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 26/1800Z 13.8N 111.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 27/0600Z 14.8N 112.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 27/1800Z 15.7N 112.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 28/0600Z 16.3N 112.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 29/0600Z 16.9N 112.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 30/0600Z 17.3N 112.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 31/0600Z 17.8N 111.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[Kingarabian]

Pinhole eye. ADT numbers shooting up to 6.7.

[Meow]

Both of the cloud region and eye have become much colder.

[hurricanes1234]

By the time Amanda is done, it might be the highest ACE ever recorded in May?

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Could a reintensification occur? According to Meow, cloud tops are cooling and pinhole eye is appearing. And I basically agree with this statement, as it is seen in the imagery.

[cycloneye]

Remains at 120kts on 12z Best Track.

EP, 01, 2014052612, , BEST, 0, 131N, 1116W, 120, 945, HU