ATL: INVEST 90L

[CFLHurricane]

Gaah this season is frustrating me already!!!!

[galaxy401]

Reminds me of the Alma-Arthur system in 2008. Typical of an invest in June.

[cycloneye]

No change.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An area of low pressure centered over the southern Bay of Campeche
is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over a large
portion of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and southeastern Mexico.
Strong upper-level winds will likely inhibit significant development
of this system during the next couple of days before it moves inland
over eastern Mexico by Saturday. However, this disturbance has the
potential to produce extremely heavy rains and life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides during the next few days over portions of
southeastern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[TheStormExpert]

Gaah this season is frustrating me already!!!!

Explain how please?

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track.

AL, 90, 2014060500, , BEST, 0, 193N, 943W, 20, 1005, DB

[Javlin]

Interesting setup with Boris moving in and what looks like a broad circulation in place I am thinking WX57 % might not be to far off?A wait and see..

[SeGaBob]

It doesn't look like there's any imminent development going on but it may just be me. It seems more disorganized than it did earlier though. But It still has a little less than 3 days left IF it goes into Mexico.

[hurricanehunter69]

Some interesting convection is starting to fire all around the circulation center. Especially in the north and east quads. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[cycloneye]

Up to 30% / 30%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU JUN 5 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms have recently increased near a low
pressure area over the southern Bay of Campeche. Despite strong
upper-level winds, some further development of this system is
possible over the next day or two if the low remains offshore of
eastern Mexico. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate this system this afternoon, if necessary.
This disturbance has the potential to produce extremely heavy rains
and life-threatening flash floods and mud slides over portions of
southeastern Mexico during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

[NDG]

90L is getting that squeeze from the mid level ridge over the south central US/northern MX this morning in the mid levels, westerly shear is keeping most of the convection east of the weak circulation which appears to not move at all, if anything a slow SW drift.

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track.

AL, 90, 2014060512, , BEST, 0, 191N, 945W, 30, 1004, LO

[Meow]

12z Best Track.

AL, 90, 2014060512, , BEST, 0, 191N, 945W, 30, 1004, LO

With this intensification and the coming recon, will we get TD One-L soon?

[SouthDadeFish]

Interesting little burst of convection over the center going on right now.... And a local sounding has PWATs near 70 mm. Very moist atmosphere in the area.

http://weather.uwyo.edu/upperair/bimages/2014060512.76692.skewt.parc.gif

[Steve H.]

Yes, just noticed that flare up right over the "center." Wil be an interesting weekend with such uncertainty concerning with this system.

[Meow]

Yes, just noticed that flare up right over the "center." Wil be an interesting weekend with such uncertainty concerning with this system.

The center is just inside the west side of deep convection.

[Riptide]

The proximity to land leaves a bad taste in my mouth, hopefully it takes off quickly and is dragged NW or NE.

[TheProfessor]

yes, I'd prefer North-Northwest though. I can't help but get the feeling that if this storm gets its act together, it could become a pretty big storm, maybe not wind wise, but size wise.

[Evil Jeremy]

I'mm confident that recon will fly today at this rate.

[psyclone]

Does the 30/30 development probs represent an expectation by the NHC that this system will move inland soon (ie, if it doesn't develop in the next 48 it ain't happening since it will be inland)?

[stormlover2013]

Just my opinion, I just think this will be a rain maker, we might get lucky if it becomes a high end tropical storm