Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert![Image](http://imageshack.us/a/img6/4305/tcfa002.png)
WTPN21 PGTW 221030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.2N 132.5E TO 11.0N 124.8E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 221000Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 8.9N 131.3E.
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.8N
132.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.9N 131.3E, APPROXIMATELY 220NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
AN ELONGATED BUT CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH FORMATIVE BUT FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO
THE CENTER. A 220900Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE ALSO INDICATES IMPROVED
CURVED BANDING AND THE SSMIS WIND PRODUCT SHOWS 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS
NOW WRAPPING INTO THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. A NUMBER OF RECENT SHIP
OBSERVATIONS NEAR THE LLCC INDICATE SLP VALUES NEAR 1006MB,
INDICATIVE OF THE STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE AREA. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS DEPICTS AN IMPROVED ENVIRONMENT WITH A POINT SOURCE
NOW LOCATED OVER THE LLCC, PROVIDING GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. DYNAMIC
MODELS INDICATE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WESTWARD
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PHILIPPINE ISLANDS WITH THE FORMATION OF A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION PREDICTED WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 36 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
231030Z.//
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