ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

[cycloneye]

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invest_al922012.invest
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201209152022
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INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 92, 2012, DB, O, 2012091518, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL922012
AL, 92, 2012091518, , BEST, 0, 125N, 522W, 25, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

Thread at Talking Tropics forum that was the topic for this area of interest.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=113684&start=0

[Caribwxgirl]

Ok so we have invest now. Gonna keep my eyes on this.

[northjaxpro]

Well, I was expecting this to be designated later this evening or early Sunday, but NHC did not waste any time tagging this wave an invest this afternoon.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track

AL, 92, 2012091518, , BEST, 0, 130N, 530W, 25, 1010, DB

[HurricaneAndrew92]

West Gulf Hurricane? I think maybe.

[Riptide]

Not to inject irrational discussion into the thread, but getting some weird vibes from this one. It's likely the conus won't escape without another hurricane landfall.

[jinftl]

Systems in the tropical atlantic like this one...and in this location...have struggled all year. Limited model support for this to do much and we are still at an 80% chance of no development in the next 48 hours (the flip of Code yellow 20%). The overall environment still appears more unconducive for development than anything....let's see if that changes.

No where near close to being a td from the looks of it...it has alot of work to do and an uphill climb to do that! Essentially an unorganized area of disturbed weather that bears some watching.

[HurricaneAndrew92]

Track for I92, likely an 125mph hurricane at peak.



Hopefully we'll be laughing at this forecast in 5 days.

[cycloneye]

SSD Floater is up.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... oater.html

http://oi47.tinypic.com/5lvqra.jpg

[HurricaneAndrew92]

Difference from 2pm:



To now:

[URL=http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/856/wave2x.jpg/]

Code orange worthy? Share your opinions please.

[Blown Away]

This one is gonna sneak up on everybody! Moving pretty fast!

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT SEP 15 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
NADINE...LOCATED ABOUT 980 MILES EAST OF BERMUDA.

AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A
LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY MARGINAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...THEY COULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND SQUALLS WILL LIKELY AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[Anthysteg00]

Notice the change in wording by the NHc? How is this a western Gomez storm threat at all? Lol

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Well, I was expecting this to be designated later this evening or early Sunday, but NHC did not waste any time tagging this wave an invest this afternoon.

They were bored.

[Floridaman]

Notice the change in wording by the NHc? How is this a western Gomez storm threat at all? Lol

What's a western Gomez storm? Lol

[cycloneye]

Well, I was expecting this to be designated later this evening or early Sunday, but NHC did not waste any time tagging this wave an invest this afternoon.

They were bored.

Or they saw the morning ASCAT that had the elongated low and they decided to tag it based on that.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

AL, 92, 2012091600, , BEST, 0, 133N, 543W, 25, 1010, DB

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

[thetraveler]

Track for I92, likely an 125mph hurricane at peak.

Hopefully we'll be laughing at this forecast in 5 days.

Lets hope so because I plan on being in Fort Walton Friday. If you are right I will be giving first hand reports. LOL.

[ROCK]

the LLC is setting up shop at the very east of the convection. You can see the low level cloud converge before sunset in this area. Something to watch finally....

[HurricaneFan]

the LLC is setting up shop at the very east of the convection. You can see the low level cloud converge before sunset in this area. Something to watch finally....

Around which coordinates do you think the LLC is setting up now?